Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[phil nw.]

Here is the new thread ready for the 12z Model runs then.

 

As usual please keep on topic and polite when posting.

 

Any general chat,moans,hopes or speculative comments should go here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

so we can keep this thread to discussions on what the actual charts are showing.

 

A reminder that we also have the slower paced Model thread for more in-depth type postings here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76236-in-depth-model-discussion-and-summaries/

 

OK please continue below.

 

 

[phil nw.]

Well the 12z runs are on the way so let's see what they have in store for the start of July.

The 00z means for next week end look very promising after the mid-week unsettled blip.

The T72hrs fax shows clearly the frontal systems crossing the UK from that Atlantic low

 

and then good agreement from the earlier operational runs and the means for a good build of heights over the UK by day 6.

At the moment this fine spell looks like extending well into the following week so for now, overall, the first half of July looks quite dry and settled.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=263&ext=1&y=96&run=6&runpara=0

 

anyway onto the 12.s to see if this trend continues.

Edited June 30, 2013 by phil nw.

[Summer Sun]

First signs of the pressure rise at t120

 

 

By t144 we have a deep LP system NW of Scotland so it may become slightly more unsettled in the far west with some rain but thats the exception as else where its warm and hopefully sunny

 

 

UKMO once again shows pressure rising though parts of Scotland and Ireland may become slightly more unsettled by t144 but thats the exception

 

Edited June 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Backtrack]

Yeah, liking this 12z run very much - a low to the NW dragging up some warmer upper profiles than the 06z, ridging still advancing northwards. A great run coming up for most I suspect. (sorry NW Scotland)

[Milhouse]

Thursday is shown to be a rather unsettled day but most of the rain will be across the northern half of the UK at first before this clears off into the North Sea to leave an afternoon of sunshine and showers. Temperatures reasonable on Thursday with high teens perhaps low 20s in the SE. Then almost out of the blue there is a rapid rise in pressure with high pressure right over the UK and 25c in th south.

 

[Frosty.]

Friday 5th July is when the much anticipated anticyclonic spell really begins to blossom, it looks warm next friday, very warm in parts of the south and that is just the beginning, it is likely to become warmer and warmer into the following week with lots of sunshine and light winds, perfect summer weather is on the way.

[Milhouse]

On into the weekend the high builds further and it begins to hot up. 28c by Sunday. Perhaps more cloud across the far NW but almost everywhere would be basking in the warmth.

 

[Summer Sun]

t174 sees the heat building with +15 uppers knocking on the door to the south

 

 

It still looks as if the north sea is going to keep temperatures cooler along the east coast high teens around the east Anglia coast where as the south coast is into the 20's of course the real heat is when you get inland

Edited June 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

UKMO in agreement. A light southerly. 30c maybe?

 

[Milhouse]

Temperatures up a notch for Monday. The 12z is shaping up a splendid run.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO in agreement. A light southerly. 30c maybe?

 

That is a mouthwatering chart. Couldn't place the high better. Get a set up like that going, that would be breaking 90F material inland

 

One thing to note is that this spell over the next week firmly establishes the true heat over Iberia with over 20C uppers across that region from Friday onwards and with that there it's close enough for us to possibly tap that heat. 

Edited June 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

So away from the coast the heat builds later this week and into next the east Anglia and south west coast look to be the coolest spots in the south

 

Inland we could be pushing the first 30c of 2013 where as places like Great Yarmouth and Penzance struggle to get much above 20c the cold sea temperatures around the UK could really affect some coastal spots during this spell some could even be hit by mist or fog at times whilst cloud could be a problem inland

 

 

Cloud amounts for next week

 

Edited June 30, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

That is a mouthwatering chart. Couldn't place the high better. Get a set up like that going, that would be breaking 90F material inland

Looking forward to the met office warnings for heat

[Barry12]

Loving the GFS 12z, 28C in the North!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

So away from the coast the heat builds later this week and into next the east Anglia and south west coast look to be the coolest spots in the south

 

Inland we could be pushing the first 30c of 2013 where as places like Great Yarmouth and Penzance struggle to get much above 20c the cold sea temperatures around the UK could really affect some coastal spots during this spell some could even be hit by mist or fog at times

 

I want to move back to Southampton 

[Barry12]

Looking forward to the met office warnings for heat

 

Yorkshire would be sizzling

[JK1]

Looking good

Edited June 30, 2013 by JK1

[Dan the Man]

Just watched Ben Rich's forecast for the week ahead - looks like its setting up to be a heat lovers' dream! That Azores high plonking itself directly over the UK; and just like the winter, that ridge isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

 

Looks like the 1st Test in Nottingham the week after will be fine too.

[Milhouse]

Before then, as i've said, Thursday looks an improving day with the main rain band moving off into the North Sea with showers following on behind. With a humid SW wind on Wednesday it probably would feel quite pleasant and with us being between rain bands it will be a day of scattered showers and good dry spells inbetween. Working backwards here, Tuesday doesnt look good at all but tomorrow should be mostly dry with only a scattering of showers for the northern half of the UK. Temperatures up to 21c in the south. Not a disasterous week then, before the summer looks set to arrive in style on Friday.

Edited June 30, 2013 by Milhouse

[Tamara]

Looking good

Good analysis

 

Each output is consolidating the trend for the settled spell. Nationwide winds look quite light and variable with the High pressure cell stretched out across the UK so it could get hot inland with time assisted by strong sunshine and increasing upper temperatures. So the cool sea temperatures are welcome from a personal pov - as long as it is warm enough, and also that sea mist isn't a spoiler, such as it is today f.e.

 

However I think that this will be a less widespread feature around coasts in general under the suggested High pressure from the end of the week.

[Frosty.]

Good analysis

 

Each output is consolidating the trend for the settled spell. Nationwide winds look quite light and variable with the High pressure cell stretched out across the UK so it could get hot inland with time assisted by strong sunshine and increasing upper temperatures. So the cool sea temperatures are welcome from a personal pov - as long as it is warm enough, and also that sea mist isn't a spoiler, such as it is today f.e.

 

However I think that this will be a less widespread feature around coasts in general under the suggested High pressure from the end of the week.

Agreed Tamara, it's not going to be a problem like it was in a recent fine spell where fret and haar shrouded eastern counties of the uk bordering the north sea, just comfortable sea breezes and sparkling sunshine this time around and becoming hot inland. 

 

As for tonight, a very weak cold front will be pushing southeast across the uk and sweeping the very warm and humid air away from the uk, nothing more than a band of cloud across most southern and eastern areas, then tomorrow looks like becoming brighter with sunny spells but a bit cooler and fresher although 22c is still likely in the southeast, for the north and west, temperatures close to average with sunny intervals and scattered light showers. On tuesday, an atlantic depression heads towards northwest britain bringing a spell of persistent rain and strong winds to the northwest but most of england away from the west should be fine with sunny spells for most of the day but with a band of light rain then pushing from west to east, wednesday looks drier but with a lot of cloud although some cloud breaks will allow sunny spells to develop, mainly to the lee of high ground, feeling warm and humid with temperatures around average, then another low pushing in off the atlantic but once again, most of the wind and rain across northern uk..and then friday is the start of a very summery spell which should spread to all parts of the uk through next weekend onwards.

[draztik]

Just noticed that the media are starting to report about the 'incoming heatwave'... "it will last all of July", writes the Daily Telegraph.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10151145/Summer-is-finally-here-with-heatwave-until-late-July.html

[Gordon Webb]

Just noticed that the media are starting to report about the 'incoming heatwave'... "it will last all of July", writes the Daily Telegraph.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10151145/Summer-is-finally-here-with-heatwave-until-late-July.html

 

the press probably overdoing it as normal and now they have reported the heatwave they'll probably have jinxed it

Edited June 30, 2013 by Gordon Webb

[WheresTheSnow]

Just noticed that the media are starting to report about the 'incoming heatwave'... "it will last all of July", writes the Daily Telegraph.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10151145/Summer-is-finally-here-with-heatwave-until-late-July.html

When these articles arrive - things usually go Pear shaped, almost like the paper jinx the weather! Although the amount of times papers report about incoming heatwaves during summer, they are bound to get it right once, surely!?

 

Anyway as this is the Model discussion, I guess I better post a chart or two!

 

+10 Uppers just about creeping into the far SW at 126 hours, ready to pounce on the UK!

+10 Uppers well into the UK by the end of the weekend, with +15's knocking on the door - but not quite making it. Producing temperatures such as these:

Nice run, indeed.

 

Nothing is nailed on Temperature wise, as of course we know but the trend is there - and lets hope it continues over the next few days.

Edited June 30, 2013 by WheresTheSnow

[bluearmy]

Although the height rise seems proverbially 'nailed on', where the high parks itself week 2 remains questionable and those expecting the first test to be fine would be as well to read the tea leaves! It still seems that the feature wants to retrogress back west, judging by current general fi output. However, this is too far away to have any confidence whatsoever. What we dont currently see being shown, other than the odd ens member is the block headed well to our northeast..

Edited June 30, 2013 by bluearmy