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Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Just noticed that the media are starting to report about the 'incoming heatwave'... "it will last all of July", writes the Daily Telegraph.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10151145/Summer-is-finally-here-with-heatwave-until-late-July.html

 

The Daily Express were the first on board as usual yesterday - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2726543

 

Precipitation forecast out to July 16th

 

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And the temperature outlook to July 16th

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

ECM actually brings in the fine conditions on Thursday. With upper temperatures in the SE similar to those of today it could be another very warm day depending on sunshine amounts. Friday looks fine nationwide and increasingly warm.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM has high pressure dominating by Friday with it turning increasingly warm to the south

 

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Becoming warmer into Saturday

 

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Just keeps getting better and better

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Is that an incipient plume I see there, gav?

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

+15 uppers getting closer to the south

 

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Temperatures would probably range from the low 20s in northern Scotland to as high as 30c in the SW. The bulk of England and Wales and favoured spots in Scotland could well see the high 20s. I would fancy a 30c along the south coast or somewhere like Hereford.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Not much changes into the new week but low cloud might proove problematic for North Sea coasts. Inland it continues hot and sunny where i dont see there being much cloud at all.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Another cracker from ECM this evening

 

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Of course temperatures are going to be dependent on location inland will be pushing close to 30c who knows maybe higher but some coastal areas could be stuck in the high teens to low 20's given the cool sea temperatures still around the UK this could in turn mean eastern coasts get plagued by cloud at times but inland parts will bask in the heat

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

I think we could call it a heatwave if the ECM verified. To end the run its another very warm day and even though winds have moved round to a northerly direction all areas with the exception of northern Scotland are under >10c upper temperatures.

 

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Edited by Milhouse
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Looks good for a good spell of summer weather. If one was to be fussy then it would be the azores high refusing to get beyond the UK and all models wanting to retreat the heights back westwards later on. Still it's at least a good 5 days at least of pretty much UK wise settled and very warm weather which is not to be sneezed at.

There is some serious heat building over Spain over the coming week which looks like setting in with temperatures in Spain/Southern France reaching the high 30s possibly 40C +. If the high could push into Scandinavia and bring in South/South Easterly winds then we could be looking at a substantial heatwave. But that is just hopecasting at the moment :p

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Looks good for a good spell of summer weather. If one was to be fussy then it would be the azores high refusing to get beyond the UK and all models wanting to retreat the heights back westwards later on.

 

 

Then you have the UKMO to pin your hopes on.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

WOW the Ecm 12z is an absolute stunner, really it's incredible, heathrow airport had 27c today but we should get beyond 30 celsius when this anticyclonic spell locks in for a week or three, we would be looking at temperatures continuing to rise, I would think well into the 80's is possible depending on continental influences, absolutely no problem reaching 25 to 30c once this pattern change arrives, time to get excited.

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

I wonder if we are to finally get an 'extreme' spell in summer after a fantastically snowy March in winter. All we'd need then is some massive Storms to go off to end.....Oh, and then a hurricane in Autumn. Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Looks good for a good spell of summer weather. If one was to be fussy then it would be the azores high refusing to get beyond the UK and all models wanting to retreat the heights back westwards later on. Still it's at least a good 5 days at least of pretty much UK wise settled and very warm weather which is not to be sneezed at.

 

Some people will never be satisfied! You don't see a lot better than the ECM this evening for the UK, there is no real sign of a retreat of high pressure until 240 hrs on this run. It's a fantastic run which would bring a number of consecutive days of hot sunshine for many.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Not been around for a while, very rarely do I visit this forums as I am busy with projects.

 

But just had a brief look at the weather to see if it's improving, and it does look like maybe this Summer could take a turn for once.  Just had a brief look at what all models that are fairly reliable are outputting, even the CFS 1 monthly is hinting at something very similar.

 

Synopsis one - High pressure building above average to our South West and far east, warm air slowly ridging towards us from as early as into the second week of July.

 

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We are then looking at High Pressure establishing itself across the UK, probably in more favorable positions than not. Some not so keen on centering this high just east of the UK.

 

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If the CFS monthly was to be believed, we could possibly see warm/high pressure style weather till maybe August.  I don't wish to go any further than that, but looks likely that July could be a scorcher!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

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If this chart verified me and A boy named sue would be doing a moaning duet in the ramping/banter thread  Posted Image

 

Scorcher said

Some people will never be satisfied! You don't see a lot better than the ECM this evening for the UK, there is no real sign of a retreat of high pressure until 240 hrs on this run. It's a fantastic run which would bring a number of consecutive days of hot sunshine for many.

 

Bit of tongue in cheek there, still like in winter, it would be a shame to let all that hot air over Iberia go to waste

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Monday the 8th, please let that chart be right, you're my only day off for the next fortnight.... Oh to live somewhere with reliable summers, where we don't have to chance individual days!

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Absolutely outstanding charts !! About time too! 

Looks like 30c is looking ever more likely to be hit towards the end of this week and coming weekend. 

What captain shortwave said about the hot air over Iberia. At 240 hrs out, the opposite thing tends to happen, so that high could head out East and flood them 20c uppers right into us! Then theres absolutely no reason for the record not to be broken for July, 36c could well be breached should all of that hot air be surged up to us, a big IF though ! 

Overall, I'm very impressed with tonights outputs :)

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Even though the high is retreating westwards into the Atlantic it doesnt mean that cool weather would result. At T+240 warm air is being pumped so far north towards Iceland which is descending south towards the UK around the high pressure. There would be an increase in cloud however but temperatures would be still mid to high 20s.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Even though the high is retreating westwards into the Atlantic it doesnt mean that cool weather would result. At T+240 warm air is being pumped so far north towards Iceland which is descending south towards the UK around the high pressure. There would be an increase in cloud however but temperatures would be still mid to high 20s.

Yeah I see what you mean. My god, its not very often that you get win win situations on this little Island !

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Posted
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Humid & stormy
  • Location: Coastal West Sussex

I really want them 20 uppers to come to us.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I really want them 20 uppers to come to us.

 

I like my heat but +20c can stay away for me that would be just awful if they arrived far too hot and uncomfortable

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Strong agreement between ECM, GFS and UKMO this evening, all suggesting heights will build across and more importantly over the country come the weekend bringing increasing warmth for all with warm uppers and settled conditions overhead.

 

The question is whether this turn in events is about to mark the beginning of a lengthy dry very warm settled spell, or a shorter lived version.

 

My own hunch and this is just a hunch is that heights will struggle to build eastwards sufficiently and with pressure from the jet will in turn retreat into the mid atlantic as we head further into July - so yes some very warm conditions are likely second week of July but not anything especially hot - before cooler conditions invade from the NW.

 

My forecast for July is for a couple of very warm dry sunny spells lasting around 5 days (nationwide) - longer for the SE, and the 5-9 July looks like being one of them..

 

Its a very promising outlook all in all, heights have struggled to build over the country well since late May 2012.

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