Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[JK1]

I like my heat but +20c can stay away for me that would be just awful if they arrived far too hot and uncomfortable

what temps would they bring if that happened?

[Frosty.]

what temps would they bring if that happened?

35 celsius plus

[Milhouse]

2 things ive noticed from the ECM mean. Firstly it supports the rise in presure from the south and the warm upper temperatures in the SE on Thursday. Secondly at T+240 look at the extent of the warmth.

 

[Summer Sun]

what temps would they bring if that happened?

 

Record breaking I would except probably pushing close to 40c in some spots which is not nice at all you'd be stuck in doors most of the afternoon

[Captain Shortwave]

what temps would they bring if that happened?

I think it result in summer 2003 or July 2006 levels of heat. hence I feel interested as the isotherm is getting a far north as central France at the moment. Developing a southerly flow instead of an Easterly would drag the heat towards us further and hence the difference between a very warm and settled spell and a full on heatwave.

ECM ens is suggesting a settled spell lasting at least 5 days with good temperatures to boot with the +10C isotherm covering most of the UK

Edited June 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

29th June 1976

 

 

6th July 2013

 

 

Apart from the uppers they look remarkably similar

[nitro_deluxe]

Best keep those charts away from, ahem, shall we say certain media outlets..

[bluearmy]

looks like at least a good week of fine weather if the 12z ecm mean is to be believed. 

 

 

thats a good day 10 mean. is it supported by the spreads? 

 

 

you bet!

 

infact, looking at the N H plot

 

 

reveals the darkest red/purple line which reflects where there is little variance from the mean wrt upper height pattern is across the uk.  thats a rarity indeed at T240. 

[JK1]

I think it result in summer 2003 or July 2006 levels of heat. hence I feel interested as the isotherm is getting a far north as central France at the moment. Developing a southerly flow instead of an Easterly would drag the heat towards us further and hence the difference between a very warm and settled spell and a full on heatwave.

ECM ens is suggesting a settled spell lasting at least 5 days with good temperatures to boot with the +10C isotherm covering most of the UK

i was younger so can't really remember 2003 heatwave was like and 2006 i was in carribean.

 

Record breaking I would except probably pushing close to 40c in some spots which is not nice at all you'd be stuck in doors most of the afternoon

personaly i would love that, & would mean i could actually go in sea without being too cold lol

Edited June 30, 2013 by JK1

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

i was younger so can't really remember 2003 heatwave was like and 2006 i was in carribean.

 

 

I can tell you now, it was absolutely spot on mate. 2003 was stifling though and quite oppressive, but awesome at the same time. Very impressive thunderstorms followed up after it too on the evening of the hottest ever day, particularly in the Midlands up into Lincs. 

I think 2006 was the nicest feeling in terms of the heat. Had a proper Mediterranean feel to it, that nice hot, dry and crisp feel, just beautiful

Lets hope 2013 can square up to it.

[johnholmes]

amusing reading the last few pages that the same folk in some cases who were telling us that summer was 'over' a week or so ago are now on the 35C+ band waggon for a prologed spell.

take heed new folk.

 

I'll post tomorrow morning on the 500mb charts and longer term links.

[Costa Del Fal]

Cracking charts tonight. Even should the High retrogress, the Azores high finally making excellent attempts to ridge in would lead me to think it would do so later on in the summer too - It could retrogress then ridge again. The Jet looks like finally going to its normal summer position. This is totally a different story to the last 6 summers. Finally will we see true summer?!? 

[rmc1987]

I can tell you now, it was absolutely spot on mate. 2003 was stifling though and quite oppressive, but awesome at the same time. Very impressive thunderstorms followed up after it too on the evening of the hottest ever day, particularly in the Midlands up into Lincs. I think 2006 was the nicest feeling in terms of the heat. Had a proper Mediterranean feel to it, that nice hot, dry and crisp feel, just beautiful :)Lets hope 2013 can square up to it.

I remember that Sunday it hit 38c here, was on way to Southern Germany, by car, driving through France. Then one night in Southern Germany there was one almighty thunderstorm. In fact before it arrived you could see it flashing away over beyond the Black Forest. Here I doubt we'd see anything like 38c again for a very long time. It was exceptional conditions that led to that heat and many, unusual, things would need to occur for it to be possible.

[Frosty.]

amusing reading the last few pages that the same folk in some cases who were telling us that summer was 'over' a week or so ago are now on the 35C+ band waggon for a prologed spell.take heed new folk. I'll post tomorrow morning on the 500mb charts and longer term links.

Not sure who that was aimed at? But I think 25 to 30 celsius is very realistic considering london reached 27 celsius today.

[Staffordshire]

35c+ really isnt that bad guys. It has been 36c where i am the past 2 days and i have coped fine (apart from excersise and this only resulted in a sweat) the reason many of us dont like it is because the humidity it usually brings with it when we get a heatwave here in england. So yes 35c with high humidity would be horrid, no arguments. But a dry 35-40c isnt too bad and is bareable. Its just when we get heat here, humidity is usually dragged up with it. Just as a discalimer, this isnt me saying we will get 35c+ temps, just putting a point across.

Edited June 30, 2013 by Staffordshire

[Panayiotis]

Oh what a lovely GFS 18Z with pressure high for most of the run, with only a few small hiccups as the high pressure relocates for a time but it soon moves back at the end of the run!

I forgot to mention the CMA which is also another great run starting from 120hrs to the end, with very warm/hot 850hPa air touching the south coast at 216hrs:

And I wonder what conditions this chart will bring to the UK with high pressure over Scandi and the Atlantic?

Edited June 30, 2013 by Panayiotis

[DTHFCJ]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

drought minister anyone?

 

its been pretty dry here in the south wales valleys Panayiotis them ensembles look like its going to stay that way too....

Edited June 30, 2013 by BALE1

[Panayiotis]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

drought minister anyone?

I was just about to post "Should we start talking about drought?"  But you have started 

For my area:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=203&ext=1&y=140&run=18&runpara=0

Edited June 30, 2013 by Panayiotis

[mushymanrob]

Looks good for a good spell of summer weather. If one was to be fussy then it would be the azores high refusing to get beyond the UK and all models wanting to retreat the heights back westwards later on. Still it's at least a good 5 days at least of pretty much UK wise settled and very warm weather which is not to be sneezed at.

There is some serious heat building over Spain over the coming week which looks like setting in with temperatures in Spain/Southern France reaching the high 30s possibly 40C +. If the high could push into Scandinavia and bring in South/South Easterly winds then we could be looking at a substantial heatwave. But that is just hopecasting at the moment

 

exactly my thoughts this morning.... yes we look certain to get the best warm/hot spell for 7 years, but with the models suggesting the high retrogressing back to the azores itll shut the door on any thundery plumes and the highest of the temps. its looking this morning like a 5 day wonder....im not moaning at that btw! 

 

id prefer to see pressure drop and remain reletively low over the azores area.

 

Not sure who that was aimed at? But I think 25 to 30 celsius is very realistic considering london reached 27 celsius today.

 

yeah i was wondering that. i have been very pessimistic about anything nice happening this summer, but ive not once mentioned 30+ temps....

[johnholmes]

Not sure who that was aimed at? But I think 25 to 30 celsius is very realistic considering london reached 27 celsius today.

 

you missed the point Frosty; my comment concerned those who not long ago said summer is over looking at the charts and now back the idea that there will be a spell of heat for early July?

[Frosty.]

you missed the point Frosty; my comment concerned those who not long ago said summer is over looking at the charts and now back the idea that there will be a spell of heat for early July?

yes John, apologies, I see what you meant. It's looking like a prolonged spell of warm & settled weather is locked and loaded, as for FI retrogression, not concerned about that as it has a good chance of being wrong.

Edited July 1, 2013 by Frosty039

[Scorcher]

exactly my thoughts this morning.... yes we look certain to get the best warm/hot spell for 7 years, but with the models suggesting the high retrogressing back to the azores itll shut the door on any thundery plumes and the highest of the temps. its looking this morning like a 5 day wonder....im not moaning at that btw! 

 

 

Why emphasise the negatives from what are a stunning set of runs this morning out to Wednesday- and that retrogression is not certain anyway. Looks like the uppers will remain very warm even if the high slips west.

[Frosty.]

Why emphasise the negatives from what are a stunning set of runs this morning out to Wednesday- and that retrogression is not certain anyway. Looks like the uppers will remain very warm even if the high slips west.

yes scorcher let's accentuate the positives, there are a lot of those this morning.

[Downpour]

yes John, apologies, I see what you meant. It's looking like a prolonged spell of warm & settled weather is locked and loaded, as for FI retrogression, not concerned about that as it has a good chance of being wrong.

More proof that certain members spending days on end patronising members who are looking in the models for warm shots may come back to bite them. Some good midrange forecasting by Frosty et al, assuming the warm spell verifies - which looks likely now.

[tempestwatch]

29th June 1976

 

 

6th July 2013

 

 

Apart from the uppers they look remarkably similar

What I do remember about the heat of 1976 was that it seemed to be a dry heat (NE England) so although it was hot, it was bearable. Those charts do look similar and at the very least we have 5 days an possibly more of fine weather, even here in Scotland