Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Barry12]

The high does pull back a bit at 240 though

 

 

but thats the only negative

Edited July 1, 2013 by Barry95

[Milhouse]

After the previous summers where its been a case of low pressure arriving, putting down its anchor, and staying over the UK for days its now the turn of high pressure to stick around for a while. From Saturday to Monday it really isnt moving at all, instead its been inflated by more high pressure arriving from the SW.

[surfs up]

Hi guys.

 

Been on here for years but rarely post. Whilst during my time on here I have learnt to read the models, understanding what weather to expect I struggle with understanding what cloud cover i should experience for my location. This week in Cornwall has been dogged by cloud, almost pea soup conditions at time with really misty periods. Is there anywhere that I can look to understand what conditions bring what cloud cover to certain areas? 

 

Looking at the models today I am really looking forward to some fine settled weather down here in Cornwall next week. Working in the surfing industry and relying 100% on tourism we certainly need it!

[Milhouse]

Hi guys.

 

Been on here for years but rarely post. Whilst during my time on here I have learnt to read the models, understanding what weather to expect I struggle with understanding what cloud cover i should experience for my location. This week in Cornwall has been dogged by cloud, almost pea soup conditions at time with really misty periods. Is there anywhere that I can look to understand what conditions bring what cloud cover to certain areas? 

 

Looking at the models today I am really looking forward to some fine settled weather down here in Cornwall next week. Working in the surfing industry and relying 100% on tourism we certainly need it!

 

Given winds for your location will be coming from the east from Saturday onwards i wouldnt bank on there being much cloud at the weekend and on into next week. It looks the perfect setup for a weather map full of sun symbols.

 

With an easterly tracking across the land ruling out any sea breezes it could lead to some particularly high temperatures as well.

 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Milhouse

[Costa Del Fal]

Although the high looks like it may pull back into the Atlantic, at the same time it seems pressure may fall slightly in the Azores and I feel this would encourage the high to be pushed back towards us albeit perhaps a little less extensive with a bit more of the North prone to unsettled conditions.

[Summer Sun]

So at t240 we have both GFS and ECM pulling the high back into the Atlantic increasing cloud amounts in the east Cities like Southampton could be the hot spots if this happened

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Sunshine and warmth at last looks like being in situ across the country by Friday and into next week! How long will it last though ? Both ecm and gfs show the high declining mid week ! It looks just like a "normal" July to me although of course its t+240 , big time fantasy island!! 

Edited July 1, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Frosty.]

It's great to see the heat building through this sequence of Ecm 12z charts, 30 celsius + is on the cards for some parts of the south by early next week with mid to high 20's celsius further north, it's the first proper heatwave of the summer and i'm sure it won't be the last either, even if the high begins to pull southwest as this run shows, there is still enough of the high over the uk to keep most areas very warm and settled all next week, and there is no reason why the high can't stick around for even longer.

[stainesbloke]

Sunshine and warmth at last looks like being in situ across the country by Friday and into next week! How long will it last though ? Both ecm and gfs show the high declining mid week ! It looks just like a "normal" July to me although of course its t+240 , big time fantasy island!!

Yes, anything shown at T240 is likely to change as we get nearer, if charts this weekend are showing the high retrogressing then I'll take notice. Until then still looks like a good 5 days of warm/very warm, sunny, settled weather from Friday. No mega heatwave IMHO but the best summer charts for some years which is no mean feat!

[draztik]

it looks just like a "normal" July to me although of course its t+240 , big time fantasy island!! :rofl:

Agreed, if memory serves me, we had a decent 5-8 days last July, prior to the Olympic opening ceremony, where temperatures breached 30C at Olympic Park - also, the weather during the games was pretty decent, given the awful June we had.what with the models showing the high regressing, it appears it will be an average July. Don't really understand the hype. Edited July 1, 2013 by draztik

[bluearmy]

encouraging sigs from ecm fi re the behaviour of the troughing to our ne. need to see the ecm mean/ spread before making any judgements. whilst the fi range of the ops should not be relied upon, they are useful to judge the general direction of travel.

[tinybill]

i  dont  post  much  in summer  but all i say it looking a  bit hot  july 8 th at the moment!!

Edited July 1, 2013 by tinybill

[Summer Sun]

i  dont  post  much  in summer  but all i say it looking a  bit hot  july 8 th at the moment!!

 

Looks earlier than that TBH

 

[Downpour]

Sunshine and warmth at last looks like being in situ across the country by Friday and into next week! How long will it last though ? Both ecm and gfs show the high declining mid week ! It looks just like a "normal" July to me although of course its t+240 , big time fantasy island!!

You know you are on to a good thing when certain members are accentuating a (half hearted) breakdown at ten day range.

[Methuselah]

From being here in Beccles for almost a year, one thing is certain - the GFS over-estimates the cooling influence of the North Sea, when there's not a strong East wind...

[Milhouse]

Agreed, if memory serves me, we had a decent 5-8 days last July, prior to the Olympic opening ceremony, where temperatures breached 30C at Olympic Park - also, the weather during the games was pretty decent, given the awful June we had.what with the models showing the high regressing, it appears it will be an average July. Don't really understand the hype.

 

 Have you been abroad since 2006 or something. I for one can help but notice the last 6 summers have been a bit wet.

[J10]

Upper Charts

 

 

Very solid agreement on High Presure bang on top of us for this period.

 

Over the past month, I have hoped that the conditions suggested by these charts would be wrong.

 

On this occasion I hope that the conditions expected by these charts are right.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Upper Charts

 

610day.03.gif

814day.03.gif

 

Very solid agreement on High Presure bang on top of us for this period.

 

Over the past month, I have hoped that the conditions suggested by these charts would be wrong.

 

On this occasion I hope that the conditions expected by these charts are right.

AMEN to that

[SizzlingHeat]

Haha 'normal' July lol which country have you been in since July 2006?? These are the best July charts since 06. Im sorry but a high of 1025-1030 on TOP of us with 12-15c uppers most certainly IS something to get hyped about. Considering this is happening still so close to the solstice with long warm evenings light winds and strong sunshine. Im sorry but a rogue 30c last July does not match whats potentially showing with 30c likely to be reached on consecutive days in some locations and widely into high 20s

We could always be looking at the charts attached but no!

[Frosty.]

Haha 'normal' July lol which country have you been in since July 2006?? These are the best July charts since 06. Im sorry but a high of 1025-1030 on TOP of us with 12-15c uppers most certainly IS something to get hyped about. Considering this is happening still so close to the solstice with long warm evenings light winds and strong sunshine. Im sorry but a rogue 30c last July does not match whats potentially showing with 30c likely to be reached on consecutive days in some locations and widely into high 20sWe could always be looking at the charts attached but no!

Exactly, normal July weather in the uk is rainy and 19c, the upcoming spell is more like a taste of what france normally gets but we rarely get to experience, role on the heatwave.

[Gray-Wolf]

Certainly ain't no re-run of last year? I wonder what has changed to break that run of 'stuck' weather over us?

[JK1]

I wonder if my area could be a hotspot, I do hope so, Charts look great

Edited July 1, 2013 by JK1

[Summer Sun]

Sorry for the off topic post but does anyone know whats happened to Gibby? he's not posted on here for ages

[bluearmy]

Sorry for the off topic post but does anyone know whats happened to Gibby? he's not posted on here for ages

he's still posting his summary on TWO (today its a 'summery"!). not shocked if he got fed up with some posters nitpicking at his unbiased assessment on here and gave up with it.

 

wrt the 12z ecm mean - not quite as good as yesterday re the sustainability of the block approaching mid month but still pretty good.  i am looking at the way the troughing into eastern scandi is progged as this seems likely to promote the slow retrogression of our block. no bad news from this perspective on the 12z ecm mean. i suspect naefs may be a tad less optimistic here but week 2 behaviour of blocks is notoriously poorly modelled.

[Gray-Wolf]

From looking to past years, when similar has arrived, it is only once it is with us that the models 'catch up' with it in terms of longevity and strength?