Satellite Security

[Gray-Wolf]

We live in a society ever more dependent on the sats above but just how safe are they?

 

We hear tales of massive CME's causing onboard fizzle failures and are also told of the amount of debris mankind has placed in orbit amongst them so just how safe are they and how much of an impact would the loss of them cause to mankind and our  current level of 'civilisation'?

 

I'm barred from the discussions of Ison's impacts on our climate but have to wonder just how 'sure' NASA is that the debris stream we are set to encounter, from Jan 12th 2014, will be just ' benign dust of only microns diameter'?

 

We have a number of named 'meteor showers' each year, that are just us encountering other 'comet Tails', so why , for a first time visitor to the inner solar sytem, are NASA so sure that this week long ( full global) encounter will not pose a threat to our sats ( and ISS) as their recent posts suggest?

 

I , for one, would expect the debris stream to be a mix of dust, small grains and rocks?

 

What shows us, whilst still between jupiter and Mars, that it should be any different to any other 'average' comet?

 

Should we find the ISS being left 'un-manned' from early Jan next year ( with some odd story as to why the crew were recalled?) I will be a little less 'assured' that the predicted 'dust shower' , and early noctilucent show, is all that we are set for?

 

Think about it, we pass through ( according to NASA's orbita lplot) the dead centre of the comets path on it's approach to the sun. We expect to encounter both the debris following the comet and also the debris from beyond us ( pushed into us by the solar wind) for upwards of a week ( like most other 'meteor showers') and we are told to only expect to pass through dust mere 'microns' in diameter?

 

I'm sorry but this is one old Wolf that isn't comfey with what he is told to expect.

[4wd]

Such things do tend to be exaggerated.People are always trying to make some upcoming comet sound exciting but nothing in the last 50 years at least has really been visible to the casual observer unless you knew exactly where to look.In the past comets have lit half the sky and even been visible through the day.I don't suppose anyone cam be all that sure what an individual comet trail will be made up of but it's mostly fine material no doubt.As for affecting the climate, pretty far fetched as usual.

The amount of material is tiny compared to a volcanic plume.

[Gray-Wolf]

I would hope we are advancing in our understanding of such things Four? The fact that NASA is able to show us the orbital track for Ison is surely an advance on the data we had for the 1680 comet???

 

The NASA chappie who highlighted the 'double whammy' of debris impact, apart from being a well respected expert in his field, seems to think this is an 'unprecidented' happening so the positioning of the trail must be somewhat uncommon?

 

That said i am looking for input from folk more knowledgable on such matters to 'fill in the blanks' that I have raised? For me I am still at the 'dirty Snowball' stage of understanding comets and their makeup but that leaves me thinking that there is a rich variety of constituants buried in the ice?

 

We are still being told that it will only be on it's close approach that we will know if the comet will be the 'show stopper' it has the potential to be and we still do not know if it will survive it's 'sun Dive' and emerge from the contact ( we only have lovejoy as a guide...being smaller and yet surviving the initial encounter?)

 

The likes of Hubble are studying it now but it will only be when it is getting in to Mars's orbit that the solar wind will begin to properly 'melt out' the water ice to produce the tail ( current images of the 'tail' are of gas emmisions as it is still to far out for the 'ice' to play a role)?

 

So if anyone does have solid information as to why NASA is so confident that the particles we will encounter from Jan 12th will only be 'microns' across , and not be a mixture of sizes capable of giving a 'traditional' meteor shower' then please post?

[pottyprof]

I expect there may well be larger fragments entering the atmosphere and as you say GW, why would it be any different?  Hopefully it will all burn up as it enters but as you point out, we only have to look back a few years to see what happens when a comet breaks up.  I don't think we'll have to worry about impact from large lumps because it will be travelling fast enough and be far enough away to avoid this issue.  We could, I suppose, be facing 'fire from the sky'....  What will be, will be.....

[Gray-Wolf]

Sorry P.P I though there was an 'Unlike ' post option?

 

Are you really serious, ' I thought this through' type posting here or do you want another go?

 

how many comet tails , first time round , are you basing this 'experience ' on?

 

In My 50yrs of 'being here' I cannot speak of similar???

 

So , and let's be sure here 'cause I'm being measured on what folk 'Think' I'm saying here in the threads, that we understand one another perfectly well,you are assuring folk that nothing 'untoward' will occur on Jan 12th and you'll stake you're reputation on it?

[Styx]

I see you have moved on from Arctic sea ice meltout catastrophe to canvassing another impending calamatious event! 

 

I don't have an opinion by the way but I hear Tasmania is the safest place to be in the world for whatever catastrophe may befall our planet.

Edited July 4, 2013 by Styx