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Autumn 2013: thoughts, prospects and forecasts.


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

Nice work on both the Summer and now the Autumn forecast BFTV. I'll certainly refer back to them and also hope in the meantime it's correct as a settled Autumn makes the winter less difficult and prolonged.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Just out of interest how would it look if you used spring snowcover instead of last Autumn.

 

A mistake in the snow cover criteria too!

For the snow cover, the (all relatively) below average August, slightly below September and slightly above average October have been the general pattern of recent years.

 

I'll take a look at the Spring snow cover and see how much changes tomorrow, but there will only be slight, if any, changes in the number of matches overall and thus the composite maps.

 

 

Since my summer forecast is going well here is my Autumn forecast - no Autumn until second half October at which point we will get a drastic swing to extremely wet with flooding, windy, and cold throughout all points of the UK, which will last through to end of November with snow in the UK well before Christmas (mid December).

 

BFTV - Your analogues are highly appreciated for my own workings.

 

Cheers Buzzit. You might find this thread from last year useful http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74566-the-hunt-for-white-december/?hl=+white%20+december

 

 

Nice work on both the Summer and now the Autumn forecast BFTV. I'll certainly refer back to them and also hope in the meantime it's correct as a settled Autumn makes the winter less difficult and prolonged.

 

Thanks. I think if the Euro high becomes a theme in the early part of Autumn, I'd be happy with that. Just like the strong heights over us and Scandi this summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Personnally i hope we dont have a Euro High during the Autumn,when we do it just feels like an extension of summer for much of the season which i would rather not happen. I would like Autumn to feel like Autumn. I despised Autumn 2011 for example which was dominated by a Euro High for much of the time ,didnt feel very Autumnal at all that year.

But good luck with your forecast anyway BFTV.

Edited by sundog
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Just out of interest how would it look if you used spring snowcover instead of last Autumn.

 

I had a look at the Spring snow cover and there are no similar years to this one. The rapid change from top 10 snow extent in April, to bottom 3 snow extent in May hasn't been observed before. I'm not sure how Spring snow cover would affect the Autumn weather though?

 

Taking that into account anyway, the composites with Spring snow cover (instead of late summer and Autumn) show a stronger and warmer Euro high in September, slightly more unsettled but milder conditions in October and slightly more unsettled but cooler conditions in November.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Interesting...

 

Out of interest i also ran a forecast of my own and got the following...

 

post-1806-0-12836700-1374693853_thumb.pn

 

post-1806-0-38922000-1374693883_thumb.pn

 

post-1806-0-67226800-1374693895_thumb.pn

 

A much more different picture.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

What criteria did you use for that SB? None of the years in your composites match mine...

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

On it's way.. -10 isotherm...

 

Posted Image

 

What criteria did you use for that SB? None of the years in your composites match mine...

 

I took the May-June analogues for the MEI, QBO, PDO and GLAAM. They matched two..

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

It's during August when you really notice sunset getting earlier and earlier. At the start of month it's 9 o'clock by the end of the month its 8 o'clock.

Starting to notice it now, its not as as light at 10 o'clock now. Infact, that it is a good test, especially with the sun setting earlier and earlier now, choose a time after sunset and judge the light level at that time for each day over the next fortnight.
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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

Be very apparent in the morning - just off for my first night shift in 3 weeks and the difference from last time will be stark. I finish at 6am and the 12th August (the glorious twelfth!)  is the first date the sun is still below the horizon at that time!

Edited by laserguy
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Starting to notice it now, its not as as light at 10 o'clock now. Infact, that it is a good test, especially with the sun setting earlier and earlier now, choose a time after sunset and judge the light level at that time for each day over the next fortnight.

Looking at the sky now it's definitely noticeable that the nights are starting to draw in. Light levels, if my memory serves me correctly, were like this at gone 10pm around the solstice.
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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

My first black blackberry today! Apples and pears swelling nicely! And one of my chillis is turning red! But most tellingly the milkman had his lights on when he turned up at our works this morning!!

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Hopefully a warm/sunny start to autumn (none of this cool/wet naffness in September) so things can ripen off nicely. Then October can finish things off quickly with a frost in the second week perhaps. Then gales & rain till winter as is as expected for autumn!

Then the long long long darkness period begins. And that will be my cue to move house or perhaps even country!

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

Wonder what the effect would be of increasing the Earth's tilt somewhat? 1, 5 or 10 degress? Not good I'd imagine!

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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

Wonder what the effect would be of increasing the Earth's tilt somewhat? 1, 5 or 10 degress? Not good I'd imagine!

Christ, we might fall off when we went round the "other side"!
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Wonder what the effect would be of increasing the Earth's tilt somewhat? 1, 5 or 10 degress? Not good I'd imagine!

It'd cause a catastrophic melt-out of the Greenland Ice Sheet, Botty...Posted Image  Now, wouldn't that make for some 'heated' discussion!Posted Image 

Edited by A Boy Named Sue
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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

I've just had a happy thought which momentarily distracted me from the misery of the sun trying to penetrate the black curtains.... in 12 short week's time there'll be hardly any leaves left on the trees!

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I think we're overdue a traditional unsettled stormy Autumn. We've had our overdue warm and sunny summer (so far) so it could be our turn this year. Of course it's never as simple as that, would be nice though.

Seem to have had quite a lot of dry anticyclonic Autumns in recent years.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Can I get in an early bank for the business part of Autumn please.

 

Posted Image

 

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

I've just had a happy thought which momentarily distracted me from the misery of the sun trying to penetrate the black curtains.... in 12 short week's time there'll be hardly any leaves left on the trees!

 

And your chilli plants will be dead too...

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Can I get in an early bank for the business part of Autumn please.

 

Posted Image

 

puts a smile on my face just thinking about it :)

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

So long as we continue with warm weather into Sept we'll get loads of them. If it turns manky now it'll really hold 'em back. Although sweet peppers seem to suffer more I've found (terrible last year!).

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