west pacific Typhoon Soulik

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 07W has formed a few hundred miles north-northeast of the Northern Mariana Islands. The depression has an expanding area of convection over the LLCC, with formative banding features. Sustained winds are currently 30kts.

 

07W is expected to head westwards over the next few days on the south side of a steering ridge to the north. In about 4 days time, 07W is expected to turn northwestwards as the cyclone reaches the western extent of the ridge. The environment supports intensification, with low to moderate shear, warm sea temps, and good upper level outflow. Therefore, 07W is expected to become a typhoon in a few days time. Taiwan and eastern China need to monitor 07W as the cyclone will be approaching from the east at days 4 to 5.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 07W has become Tropical Storm Soulik, with winds of 45kts. Soulik is strengthening quickly. The storm's bands are well wrapped and an eye appears to be forming, suggesting the system will soon be a typhoon. The upper level environment is very favourable, with low shear and excellent radial outflow, with strong outflow channels being observed in both the south and north quadrants of the storm. This suggests that rapid intensification could occur over the next day or so. Westward motion is expected to continue followed by west-northwest motion induced by an approaching trough beginning to weaken the ridge. This trough is currently expected to inflict shear over Soulik by day 4, causing the cyclone to begin to weaken. as it approaches Taiwan and Eastern China.

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Soulik is in the West Pacific and could affect Taiwan or coastal China by the end of the week. Currently, Soulik is well to the north-northeast of Guam and is no threat to this island. Actually, it will not be a threat to any landmass for several days.

 

This system will continue to develop a broader area of clouds and slowly strengthen over the next few days. Soulik should be a typhoon later in the day tomorrow (Tuesday) or Wednesday. This system is over some very favorable water with temperatures above 80 degrees. Winds across the area are weak, allowing for the storm to develop a stronger circulation. And finally, the storms are wrapping around the system and looking to allow the storm to strengthen.

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-forming-in-the-2/15013333

[be cause]

going to be rough in Okinawa on Friday 

[Somerset Squall]

Soulik has rapidly strengthened through the day and is now the season's second typhoon, with winds of 65kts. Soulik's eye continues to become more defined, though is a rather cloud obscured at present. Further strengthening, perhaps rapid, is expected as shear remains low and outflow excellent.

[Somerset Squall]

In the last 18 hours, Soulik has strengthened by 30kts and is now a 95kt cat 2 typhoon. From tropical depression to 95kt typhoon in less than 48 hours is certainly an impressive bout of rapid intensification. Soulik has developed a large, clear eye which is embedded in a circular central dense overcast. The rapid intensification could continue over the next 18 hours, before the upper level outflow becomes less favourable, slowing intensification. JTWC forecast a peak of 115kts (cat 4), which is a fair assessment but could end up being a little low. The track forecast has changed little with Soulik forecast to pass north of Taiwan and slam into Eastern China south of Shanghai in about 4 days time. Shear will have weakened Soulik a little by this stage but it will still be a dangerous typhoon at landfall.

[Somerset Squall]

Soulik continues to intensify rapidly. The impressive typhoon is now a cat 4 with winds of 115kts. The eye remains clear, and it seems Soulik is not done yet. It is forecast to become a super typhoon in the next 12 hours, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Soulik perhaps peak as a cat 5. Worryingly for Taiwan, track forecast has shifted a little father south as ridging to the north is expected to remain stronger against the approaching trough in a few days.

[Coast]

 

 

 

MANILA, Philippines—Typhoon Soulik is expected to enter the Philippine territory before noon Wednesday, the state weather bureau said. As of 4 a.m., the eye of the typhoon was observed at 1,365 kilometers east of Itbayat, Batanes, with maximum sustained winds of 150 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 185 kph, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.

 

Soulik, which will be called Huaning once it enters the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR), is forecast to be in the country between 9 a.m. and 12 noon, weather forecaster Alvin Pura told INQUIRER.net. While Soulik is not likely to make landfall, Pura said they are not discounting the possibility of a landfall. Soulik is now moving west northwest at 20 kph, and is likely to affect extreme northern Luzon. It will also enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains in the western section.

 

Meanwhile, Pagasa’s morning bulletin said Mimaropa, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Soccsksargen and the provinces of Quezon and Aurora will experience cloudy skies with light to moderate rainshowers and thunderstorms. Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. Moderate to occasionally strong winds blowing from the north to northwest will prevail over Luzon and its coastal waters will be moderate to occasionally rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the southwest with slight to moderate seas.

 

 

 

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/442055/typhoon-soulik-expected-between-9-a-m-and-12-noon-wednesday-pagasa#ixzz2YcjDC8LF 

[Somerset Squall]

Soulik has continued to strengthen and is now a 125kt cat 4 typhoon. Just a 5kt increase in wind would make Soulik the first super typhoon of the season. The convection on the northern side of the eye has weakened slightly, and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle could be imminent. This would cause Soulik to weaken if it occurs, at least temporarily.

[Somerset Squall]

Soulik is ungergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC) as evidenced by a secondary eyewall forming around the inner eye. Winds have dropped to 115kts. Soulik is still expected to regain some strength before weakening again in about 24hrs time as shear begins to increase. However, Soulik is still expected to be a dangerous typhoon as it nears Taiwan and Eastern China.

[Coast]

Strong words from the media:

 

 

 

Typhoon Soulik to Devastate Northern Taiwan

 

 

Typhoon Soulik had 145-mph top sustained winds as of 0900 UTC Wednesday, July 10, 2013. The center of Soulik is located about 500 miles southeast of Okinawa. Typhoon Soulik has approached super typhoon status (winds of greater than 150 mph) at times as it barrels westward on a track to northern Taiwan and mainland China.

 

The highest winds of Soulik have backed off, somewhat, to between 130 and 135 mph with gusts over 160 mph. The latest storm movement is toward the west at 14 mph. The dangerous storm is expected to hold its potentially devastating strength, or slightly strengthen, over the next day or so before weakening a bit as it nears Taiwan. A potential landfall on northern Taiwan could happen Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, Thursday afternoon and night, local time, the Japanese island of Okinawa will get into squally showers from the outer bands of Soulik.

 

Weakening aside, Typhoon Soulik will not spare northern Taiwan from life-threatening wind, rain and tide. Winds near the coasts of northern Taiwan as well as the southern Ryukyu Islands could gust as high as 120 or 130 mph. Winds in the major city of Taipei could top 75 mph, with potential serious structural damage. Water levels along coastal locations are expected to become life-threatening and capable of extensive damage to structures on the beach. Water levels will rise as high as 8-16 feet above normal high tide level, with the highest levels found in bays and lagoons that curve inland.

 

 

Rainfall will generally range from 4-8 inches across most areas, but in the higher terrain of Taiwan, rainfall amounts could top 1-2 feet, generating flash flooding and mudslides. East-central China, in particular the provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang, will be at risk of damaging winds and flooding rain on Saturday. The result of a major hit on these provinces is potentially devastating, as this is one of the most populous regions of the world, home to over 90 million people. The worst of Soulik seems set to track south of Shanghai, one of the most populous cities in the world. Soulik is expected to make landfall on Saturday afternoon in northern Fujian or perhaps southernmost Zhejiang province between the cities of Fuzhou and Wenzhou.

 

If not significantly weakened in its interaction with mountainous Taiwan, Soulik could still pack enough punch to deliver winds to of about 100 mph near its expected landfall in China. Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches will be widespread along the direct storm track these eastern provinces of China, as well as easternmost Jiangxi province farther inland. Local amounts over 1 foot are also possible.

 

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/soulik-a-potentially-devastati/15048816

[Somerset Squall]

Soulik has weakened to 95kts, cat 2, as it struggles to complete the EWRC. However, the eye is becoming a little better defined again and Soulik is forecast to regain cat 3 status tonight as the upper level environment is still very favourable, along with the ocean heat content. As a result of the EWRC, Soulik has grown in size too which is not good news for Taiwan or China.

[lorenzo]

Like the update SS, not the fact that it is bad news for China / Japan.. just in case anyone looking in thinks I am being sadistic !

[Coast]

 

Typhoon Soulik threatens chaos in China and Taiwan as flood toll mounts

 

Schools, offices and airlines closed or disrupted with more than 200 dead after torrential rain in parts of China

 

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/12/typhoon-soulik-china-taiwan-floods-toll

[Somerset Squall]

Soulik has made landfall on the northeast coast of Taiwan as an 85kt, cat 2 typhoon. The typhoon never really recovered from the EWRC, which was hindered by an influx of dry air. However, the typhoon is still a very dangerous one and is lashing Taiwan currently with damaging winds and torrential rains. Taiwan will take some more strength from Soulik before the typhoon goes on to make landfall on China, probably at cat 1 typhoon intensity. The system will then dissipate inland but not before drenching Eastern China.

[Coast]

 

Typhoon Soulik makes landfall in Taiwan

 

Cindy Sui in Taipei says officials are still assessing the extent of the damage

 

So far one person is reported to have died while 21 have been injured in the extreme weather. More than 8,500 people have been evacuated from mountainous and other dangerous areas and thousands of soldiers have been deployed. Soulik is set to arrive in mainland China's eastern provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang later on Saturday. Local authorities there have been asked to implement emergency response plans, China's state-run news agency Xinhua reported, after recent torrential rain across large parts of the country reportedly left 200 people dead or missing.

 

Typhoon Soulik, a medium-force typhoon, had wind speeds of around 173 km/h (100 mph) on Saturday morning. It made landfall at around 03:00 on Saturday (19:00 GMT on Friday), Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau reported. A police officer was killed by falling bricks but other people suffered mostly light injuries, including from fallen trees or being blown off their scooters. The strong winds and heavy rain have caused electricity disruptions, a run on food and essential supplies in supermarkets, and uprooted trees and signs in some areas.  This typhoon is the first to hit Taiwan this year and there had been fears of major damage because the island was the first place it made landfall, reports the BBC's Cindy Sui in the capital Taipei. Nearly 50,000 soldiers have been put on standby, she says.

 

Schools and offices in Taipei and several other cities had closed on Friday afternoon as the tropical storm neared. Map showing Taiwan and the Chinese provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang  Some flights to Taiwan have been disrupted, with both Cathay Pacific and China Airlines announcing cancellations.Precautionary measures have been taken to close the roads and bridges along areas most susceptible to disaster, officials said. Fishing boats had been returned to the shore before the typhoon hit, and members of the public were urged to avoid mountain and coastal areas.

 

Evacuated residents - including 3,000 from Kaohsiung city and 2,000 from Pingtung county in the south of Taiwan - have been taken to local government buildings that have been turned into shelters, Agence France Presse reported. More than 2,000 tourists had earlier been evacuated from Taiwan's Green Island, near the city of Taitung, as a precaution.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23297338

 

[Somerset Squall]

Soulik is now making landfall on China with winds of 70kts. The typhoon will move inland this afternoon and quickly weaken. Rains continue to drench Taiwan, but at least the winds are easing here. Major flooding will occur widely in Eastern China as Soulik winds down, swinging to the north ahead of a trough.

[Jo Farrow]

Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, in eastern China, are receiving very heavy rain from Typhoon Soulik today and they have been sitting for days with heatwave warnings. Their temperatures have been >37C, nearer to the all time UK record, so a massive change in the weather as Soulik brings a dangerous drenching.

[Coast]

 

China evacuations as Typhoon Soulik hits

 

Winds of 119 km/hour (74 mph) lashed the coastal Fujian Province, said China's National Meteorological Centre. Emergency response plans were being implemented, said Xinhua state media, after recent torrential rain reportedly left 200 people dead or missing. The typhoon earlier led to extensive flooding on the island of Taiwan.So far one person is reported to have been killed on the island, while more than 8,500 people were evacuated from mountainous and other areas prone to landslides.

 

 

Soulik is bringing heavy rain and strong waves to China In Fujian and Zhejiang, another Chinese coastal province, flights and train services were cancelled and fishing boats called back to shore. In Taiwan, a police officer was killed by falling bricks but other people suffered mostly light injuries, including from fallen trees or being blown off their scooters. The strong winds and heavy rain have caused electricity disruptions, a run on food and essential supplies in supermarkets, and uprooted trees and signs in some areas.

 

 

Soulik was the first typhoon to hit Taiwan this year and there had been fears of major damage because the island was the first place it made landfall, reports the BBC's Cindy Sui in the capital Taipei: Nearly 50,000 soldiers were put on standby.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23300439

[Coast]

 

Three people have died after Typhoon Soulik hit China's southern Guangdong province, state media say.

 

The storm, which has already killed two others in Taiwan, forced a further 20,000 people to flee their homes, the Xinhua news agency reports. Some 300,000 people have already been evacuated from eastern China amid warnings of floods and landslides. Forecasters say the typhoon weakened as it moved inland on Sunday but heavy rain and strong winds persist. Winds of 119 km/hour (74 mph) had earlier lashed the coastal Fujian Province, said China's National Meteorological Centre.

 

Emergency response plans were being implemented, said Xinhua, after recent torrential rain reportedly left 200 people dead or missing. Thousands of soldiers were deployed to carry out relief work. Typhoon Soulik, the seventh typhoon to hit the Chinese mainland this year, first hit Fujian province on Saturday afternoon. Waves as high as 10m (32ft) hit Yuhuan County in Zhejiang Province It moved to Jiangxi province early on Sunday and torrential rains toppled more than 1,000 houses in Guangdong, Xinhua said.

 

Soulik was downgraded to a tropical storm on Saturday night, the China Meteorological Administration said. The typhoon earlier led to extensive flooding in Taiwan. Two people are reported to have died on the island, while more than 8,500 people were evacuated from mountainous and other areas prone to landslides. A police officer was apparently killed by falling bricks in the capital Taipei. More than 100 others were injured. In Fujian and Zhejiang, another Chinese coastal province, flights and train services were cancelled and fishing boats called back to shore.

 

Waves as high as 10m (32ft) hit Yuhuan County in Zhejiang province and authorities warned residents to stay away from the dangerous coastline. The strong winds and heavy rain have caused electricity disruptions, a run on food and essential supplies in supermarkets, and uprooted trees and signs in some areas. Typhoons are common during the summer in parts of East Asia, where the warm moist air and low pressure conditions enable tropical cyclones to form.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23310512