Tropical Storm Chantal

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

Well Chantel has formed and is  is moveinmg rapidly toward the Lesser Antilles.

 

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, the wave in the eastern Atlantic has closed off a circulation and as the winds were 35kts the invest was declared Tropical Storm Chantal in the early hours, the third storm of the 2013 Atlantic season, skipping tropical depression status.

 

Chantal is moving at 23kts, pretty much double the speed of a normal tropical cyclone. This argues against significant strengthening, as storms moving at this speed often have problems staying vertically aligned. However, as shear is set to remain low over the next couple days as Chantal moves towards the Lesser Antilles, at least some modest strengthening is expected. Strong ridging to the north of Chantal will keep the cyclone on a generally west-northwest track, with significant gains in lattitude only occuring as the storm enters the Eastern Carribean, reaching the western extent of the ridge. This should send Chantal to it's first landfall, on Hispaniola. As ever, the exact track is subject to change, but if this did eventuate, Chantal is likely to weaken a fair amount with Hispaniola's mountainous terrain. Increasing shear at this stage will further weaken Chantal.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Yup! she looks to have a bumpy ride ahead with both physical and atmospheric 'ridges' to deal with! Will we find anything by the time the disturbance reaches the GOM???

[Coast]

The storm's winds early Monday are near 40 mph.

 

Tropical Storm Chantal is racing toward the Lesser Antilles after forming in the Atlantic. The storm's maximum sustained winds early Monday are near 40 mph with some strengthening expected over the next two days. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Barbados, Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe. A tropical storm watch is in effect for St. Vincent.

 

Chantal is centered about 630 miles east-southeast of Barbados and is moving west near 26 mph. By midweek, Chantal will encounter disruptive winds that could lead to weakening, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski. This potential weakening would occur around the same time it nears Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Later in the week, it is possible that what's left of the storm would enhance shower and thunderstorm activity across the Florida Peninsula, Pydynowski reports.

 

Meanwhile in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is getting closer to the southern portion of Mexico's Baja California peninsula, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. Erick's maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with gradual weakening expected to continue over the next two days.

 

 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/07/08/tropical-storm-chantal-atlantic-hurricane/2498073/

[lorenzo]

Pre-sunset image from GOES, will be an interesting watch.

 

Am sure I read today that the MJO is going to kick things along a notch or two shortly aswell. May have day dreamed it, not used to this heat up here !

 

 

[Coast]

 

Tropical storm warnings were issued for Puerto Rico and other parts of the Caribbean on Monday as Tropical Storm Chantal chugged along a course that could take it near Florida's Atlantic coast by the weekend.

 

Several other major Caribbean islands, including Haiti, were under tropical storm watches after tropical storm force winds quickly coalesced into a tropical storm Sunday night, so rapidly that the system completely bypassed the tropical depression stage and emerged fully formed as Chantal. Tropical storm conditions were expected in the Windward Islands by Tuesday morning and could start lashing Puerto Rico late Tuesday, The Weather Channel reported.

 

At 11 p.m. ET, a National Weather Service projection showed Chantal passing directly over Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night before grazing the southern coast of Cuba and reaching the southern tip of Florida by Friday night. The Weather Channel forecast a similar path.

 

 

Carl Parker, a hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel, said the storm was moving quickly, at 26 mph, and was expected to turn toward the northwest later in the week. It could weaken as it passes over Haiti and the Dominican Republic, but it's too soon to be certain, he said.

 

 

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/08/19362618-tropical-storm-chantal-heads-for-puerto-rico-then-probably-florida?lite

[Jo Farrow]

As I posted in the wrong place 

this is quite interesting, considering Chantal is just bearing down on Barbados right now

forecast to move 50 miles north of the island

 

http://www.barbadosweather.org/article-can-barbados-be-hit.php

WHY DO hurricanes always tend to veer off Barbados? Or do they? Some say it's divine 

providence, others attribute it to the island's geographical location, yet others believe there is a 

50-year cycle and Barbados is due for another strike soon. What really is the truth? ......

[Somerset Squall]

Chantal is moving even faster, now at 25kts. Sustained winds have increased to 50kts, which is surprising given the extremely fast motion of the storm. The storm is already beginning to clear the Lesser Antilles and is moving into the Eastern Caribbean. At this speed, it will only be a little over 24 hours before Chantal reaches Hispaniola. Chantal could strengthen a little more before landfall here. It is uncertain whether Chantal will survive the trek over Hispaniola, and the mountains will certainly take a lot of strength out of Chantal at the very least. If Chantal survives, conditions near the Bahamas don't seem all that conducive for much restrengthening anyway at this stage, though this could change.

[Steve C]

 

As I posted in the wrong place 

this is quite interesting, considering Chantal is just bearing down on Barbados right now

forecast to move 50 miles north of the island

 

http://www.barbadosweather.org/article-can-barbados-be-hit.php

WHY DO hurricanes always tend to veer off Barbados? Or do they? Some say it's divine 

providence, others attribute it to the island's geographical location, yet others believe there is a 

50-year cycle and Barbados is due for another strike soon. What really is the truth? ......

 

It's true that hurricanes generally go north of Barbados, however Barbados was right in the eye of possibly the strongest hurricane ever recorded. The bark stripping and tree flattening description here, means this must have been quite incredible.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780

[mezzacyclone]

there was close to 60mph est surface winds E of St lucia & Martinique but NHC remain slightly "bearish" with it although they have upped the anti slightly by keeping this a TS where previously they predicted lowering to TD upon NW approach to the Bahamas, I assume the DR/Hispaniola land interaction then strong SW shear their factors?

I guess we`ll have to monitor the Bermuda sub-trop ridge and ULL over FL to see how Chantal fairs but lack of a clearly defined circulation (despite closing off briefly yesterday) and relatively high central pressures indicate weakness and therefore favoring another rain deluge and little more but there is talked about re-strengthening off the Carolina`s later in the weekend "IF" a trough backs of West out of SouthEast US over to TX & NW GOM and the Bermuda ridge retrogrades, which it has been attempting for many weeks, then this could have a sting in the tail but a pre-cursor for the early beginning of the Cape Verde season?

Edited July 9, 2013 by mezzacyclone

[Somerset Squall]

Chantal's forward speed, now estimated to be 28kts (!), has weakened the storm to 40kts. Chantal could very well have opened up into a wave, we are waiting for recon to confirm. NHC will discontinue advisories this afternoon if this has occured.

[summer blizzard]

She's dead, open wave.

[Somerset Squall]

She had us fooled SB, because recon have found a closed circulation and therefore Chantal is still a tropical storm. Track keeps shifting westwards so it looks like Chantal will cross Haiti and then landfall in Cuba, if it survives this long.

 

Just to put the extremely fast motion into perspecive too, Chantal is only 60 hours old and look how far it's travelled!

 

[Somerset Squall]

Chantal is looking rather dishevelled. In addition, Recon have been back in and the circulation they found this afternoon has opened up. Therefore, Chantal is no longer a tropical cyclone. There is a chance of regeneration, but Ex-Chantal will have a hard time due to land interaction then less than ideal shear levels when the remnants track north of Cuba.

[Coast]

Tropical Storm Chantal kills one in Dominican Republic

 

One person has been killed in the Dominican Republic, as Tropical Storm Chantal skirted the southern coast of the island of Hispaniola. Fireman Juan Ramon Rodriguez was swept away by floodwaters as he tried to clear a storm drain in Maimon.

 

The US National Hurricane Centre said Chantal had "degenerated into a tropical wave" by 21:00 GMT, but was producing heavy rain and gusty winds. It is currently 370km (230 miles) east of Kingston, Jamaica, moving westwards. The remnants of Chantal are expected to spread over Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Wednesday night and Thursday.

 

The National Hurricane Centre warned of the possibility of storm-force winds in Haiti and Cuba, and localised coastal flooding along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Up to 15.2cm (6in) of rain were expected over Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas, it added. The Dominican authorities are evacuating thousands of people from communities considered at high risk of flooding.

 

Many people in rural areas of the Dominican Republic and neighbouring Haiti live in flimsy homes built on land vulnerable to floods and landslides.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-23265026

Edited July 11, 2013 by Coast