Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes!!!!!!!ecm backs the ukmo!!!carbon copy at 144 hours!!

 

To me, it looks like cooler air moving in from the NW? Sunday and Monday

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes!!!!!!!ecm backs the ukmo!!!carbon copy at 144 hours!!

Half way house, ECM still develops a more meridional pattern which shows more on the next frame

Later frames show a Scandi trough

Edited July 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

Tomorrows output will be very interesting, a swift quick change from the models from a few days ago along with the meto  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Tomorrows output will be very interesting, a swift quick change from the models from a few days ago along with the meto  

 

I did warn it would be an accelerating scenario as soon as the models got to grips with the potential change!

Edited July 8, 2013 by CreweCold

[Geordiesnow]

a couple of posts creeping into the discussion hinting at a breakdown this weekend and inference of the fine spell coming to an end....hmm...sorry, but I'm just not seeing it on the GFS12z output, all I see is a shortwave trough heading SE through the north sea and into the Benelux countries at T111 to T126 (and thus bordering on the realms of FI) giving some showery outbreaks, possibly thundery, to eastern districts which then quickly disappears as the azores high ridges in from the south west giving generally dry and warm to very warm weather for the bulk of the UK for subsequent time frames. Only at the very end of the run do heights rise over Greenland sufficently for the Azores HP to drift south westwards allowing troughing to dig towards the UK, and even then it will be a NW/SE split with the bulk of England enjoying a continuation of warm & dry days

 

Surprised you don't see an breakdown on the charts because it looks too me a breakdown in the warm/hot conditions will occur during Saturday(Southern areas may get away with another warm/hot day) as a cold front topples from North to South. 

 

I don't see an NW/SE split either, more like a SW/NE split with the best of the sunshine being the further South and West you are, and with NW'lies setting in I would be very surprised given the upper air temps if its not quite a cloudy NW'ly.

 

All that said, I don't think it would take much shift in the orientation of the high for perhaps a sunnier set up and more widespread warmth for next week so any cooler spell could very much be a blip but its too far out to be certain at this range. 

[A.J]

Tomorrows output will be very interesting, a swift quick change from the models from a few days ago along with the meto  

 

 

I did warn it would be an accelerating scenario as soon as the models got to grips with the potential change!

C'mon chaps, these are the same outputs that if I recollect correctly were progging just a few days ago, the end of the summery spell by tomorrow only for any potential breakdown to be shunted away every like for like run further into FI......to my admittedly untrained eye, there is little change to the model outputs, the only slight change is a hint to increased heights over Greenland throughout the tropospheric profile, but again, the GFS in particular has shown this on runs only for subsequent runs to push it back into FI

[J10]

Surprised you don't see an breakdown on the charts because it looks too me a breakdown in the warm/hot conditions will occur during Saturday(Southern areas may get away with another warm/hot day) as a cold front topples from North to South. 

 

I don't see an NW/SE split either, more like a SW/NE split with the best of the sunshine being the further South and West you are, and with NW'lies setting in I would be very surprised given the upper air temps if its not quite a cloudy NW'ly.

 

All that said, I don't think it would take much shift in the orientation of the high for perhaps a sunnier set up and more widespread warmth for next week so any cooler spell could very much be a blip but its too far out to be certain at this range. 

 

It would probably be quite sunny as you say for South Western areas if these charts came off, similar chrtas so far this year, have delivered decent weather. However the devil is in the detail, in terms of fronts etc,(which you are more than well aware of).

 

There is a theme away from settled conditions but none of the charts look particularly bad at that juncture, and we will wait to see what actually happens over the next couple of days.

 

The ensemble average is very much a case of deja vu from a few weeks back.

Edited July 8, 2013 by Jackone

[A.J]

Surprised you don't see an breakdown on the charts because it looks too me a breakdown in the warm/hot conditions will occur during Saturday(Southern areas may get away with another warm/hot day) as a cold front topples from North to South. 

 

I don't see an NW/SE split either, more like a SW/NE split with the best of the sunshine being the further South and West you are, and with NW'lies setting in I would be very surprised given the upper air temps if its not quite a cloudy NW'ly.

 

All that said, I don't think it would take much shift in the orientation of the high for perhaps a sunnier set up and more widespread warmth for next week so any cooler spell could very much be a blip but its too far out to be certain at this range. 

might be worth re-reading my post, as I also posted on a trough spilling down the north sea over the weekend affecting some eastern districts, however for the majority of the UK and especially from an IMBY perspective, it's a continuation of the current status quo

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I did warn it would be an accelerating scenario as soon as the models got to grips with the potential change!

huh?

While we may see a moderation of the current heat i think you are getting wayyyy ahead of yourself here Crewe cold.

[Captain Shortwave]

Very torn here. Looking at the GFS peturbations about 60% back the operational in some way. Quite a few support the UKMO/GEM solution though. ECM  is sort of in the middle, but my trust of the later stages is very little as it limpets a trough over Scandinavia for 4 days with no sign of movement. Given the ECMs habit of pulling runs like this during the summer only to be completely wrong. I don't view it with much confidence at the moment.

Simply put, I'm not putting any bets on the weather after Saturday 

[Cheshire Freeze]

huh?

While we may see a moderation of the current heat i think you are getting wayyyy ahead of yourself here Crewe cold.

 

Not really, I've been bullish about a more unsettled end to July for a long time. This doesn't necessarily mean a washout but looking at the trends in the NWP and the musings of Snokwing (which I whole heartedly concur with), the evidence suggests that the days of 25-30C heat may be numbered for a while after this week. This isn't to say that the heat won't return.

[mushymanrob]

Indeed - good post. I have never grasped this obsession with HP to the east. The current set up is plenty hot enough (borderline too hot today in the working week) and leads to sustained dry conditions.

because we get the highest temps with a southerly and a thunderstorm potential as the breakdown occurs. theres no chance of real heat (it peaked at 21c here today and im central) nor a thunderstorm if the high just drifts back to the azores as currently predicted.

[NUT]

What can we expect up here from the CF later this week? Up here at least it does not look like anything special (just your standard cold front coming through lowering the temperatures) more so than wednesday's CF so it seems?

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

  well if  fantasy  worlds  right the rain will make will come back after july  21!!

[Downpour]

huh?While we may see a moderation of the current heat i think you are getting wayyyy ahead of yourself here Crewe cold.

Indeed - a couple of bizarre posts by a couple of members. Decent outlook for most of the UK.

[Downpour]

because we get the highest temps with a southerly and a thunderstorm potential as the breakdown occurs. theres no chance of real heat (it peaked at 21c here today and im central) nor a thunderstorm if the high just drifts back to the azores as currently predicted.

We've been chalking up temps in excess of 26-27c every day since it began - in blazing sunshine. Plenty warm enough down here. Lovely set up.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed - a couple of bizarre posts by a couple of members. Decent outlook for most of the UK.

 

So is Snokwing's technical summary of where we may be headed a bizarre post? The reason I ask is because I happen to agree with much of what he has said. There's really no point in me sitting down for half an hour and typing out a post which, for the most part, would be a carbon copy in terms of where I think we may be headed. I've consistently plumped for a decent summer (since April infact) and I've consistently plumped for an unsettled spell 2nd half of July and perhaps spilling into early August (before a settling down once more).

 

The NWP I've seen over the last few days has done nothing to pull me away from this prognosis. Some form of Scandi trough looks likely as we progress towards the day 10 timeframe, which is a response to our resident HP cell pulling away further to the S & W. Just how pronounced/ far west this troughing feature is remains up for debate however. We may end up with a deepish trough which is fairly close to UK shores ala ECM

 

 

Or we may end up with a fairly weak affair and a mainly fine picture ala GFS

 

 

Whatever happens, surface winds look to switch to a N'ly or NW'ly which will make things feel cooler than they do at the moment- also with more cloud floating about.

 

No-one is screaming 'washout' as far as I can see.

 

Some people just have to admit to themselves that it's very rare in the UK to get 6-8 weeks of uninterrupted warm/hot and dry weather in summer or 6-8 weeks of cold and snow in winter.

Edited July 8, 2013 by CreweCold

[Bottesford]

We've been chalking up temps in excess of 26-27c every day since it began - in blazing sunshine. Plenty warm enough down here. Lovely set up.

 

But not everywhere has. We've had 3 days 25c or above so far this year with today following what many days have been like this year - coupled with a chilly NEly wind. Although we've beaten 2012's overall high I've recorded highly yearly maxes in all years since I began in 2006. A high to the east is far far better to bring more reliable hot conditions as well as bring up the humid air for storms. 

[pad199207]

Heatwave conditions this week for Ireland, very close to 30c on most days!

[Scorcher]

because we get the highest temps with a southerly and a thunderstorm potential as the breakdown occurs. theres no chance of real heat (it peaked at 21c here today and im central) nor a thunderstorm if the high just drifts back to the azores as currently predicted.

 

But what about what we have now? Miles better than anything we had last year- some people have got real heat from this setup (29C for example in a number of places) and not just in the south. No doubt a high to the east is preferable in an ideal world but this will do just nicely, we may get a spell of north westerlies but we even had them briefly in July 2006. Storms are just an extra for me, the warm sunshine will do nicely, don't get why they're so sought after really with the amount of rain we get already!

 

Just thought I should add actually, I do realise that you're further east Mushy so I can see why you're view of this setup might be slightly different to mine in the west but all the same your area has had some hot conditions and will do again before the week is out.

Edited July 8, 2013 by Scorcher

[Downpour]

But not everywhere has. We've had 3 days 25c or above so far this year with today following what many days have been like this year - coupled with a chilly NEly wind. Although we've beaten 2012's overall high I've recorded highly yearly maxes in all years since I began in 2006. A high to the east is far far better to bring more reliable hot conditions as well as bring up the humid air for storms.

Not everyone wants humidity and storms - and of course it's not everywhere. I look for weather in the SE because that is where I live.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

But what about what we have now? Miles better than anything we had last year- some people have got real heat from this setup (29C for example in a number of places) and not just in the south. No doubt a high to the east is preferable in an ideal world but this will do just nicely, we may get a spell of north westerlies but we even had them briefly in July 2006. Storms are just an extra for me, the warm sunshine will do nicely, don't get why they're so sought after really with the amount of rain we get already!Just thought I should add actually, I do realise that you're further east Mushy so I can see why you're view of this setup might be slightly different to mine in the west but all the same your area has had some hot conditions and will do again before the week is out.

some places have not had any real heat ok weekend was fine but during every warm spell us in east have suffered with low cloud and north easterlies its the story off this summer i for one prefer high to the south east for a southerly flow

[cheese]

Not everyone wants humidity and storms - and of course it's not everywhere. I look for weather in the SE because that is where I live.

 

Stick to the regional threads then!

[SizzlingHeat]

Been fabulous in bournemouth since Friday. Meditteranean blue skies and temps 24 Friday and saturday. 30 Sunday and 29c today. Looking again poss 29c tomorrow. Slightly cooler although 25-27c here wed and thurs. Has been best spell here for several years. Very humid!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Been fabulous in bournemouth since Friday. Meditteranean blue skies and temps 24 Friday and saturday. 30 Sunday and 29c today. Looking again poss 29c tomorrow. Slightly cooler although 25-27c here wed and thurs. Has been best spell here for several years. Very humid!

Hopefully that will give the English Channel a good amount of heat to retain to fuel any plume that drifts across