Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[draztik]

Have to say i now expect ecm to back down on its 0z run.

ecm again refutes what the ukmo shows, continues with its trajectory similar to its 12z run.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Big differences at 96h how the trough is modelled.

ECM looks closer to gfs than ukmo,obviously causing the models serious headaches this setup.

[draztik]

Have got to say - I too was expecting the ecm to gravitate towards the ukmo, but its persistence, and what with the gfs showing similar output, i think the ukmo may be too progressive. Tho, its rather persistent too as of late. Guess another run is needed!

as for the current run, west looks best, @ latter stages of the ecm. Scotland & NI holds on to relatively nice conditions.

Edited July 19, 2013 by draztik

[Captain Shortwave]

Interesting yet again the Azores high manages to loop around the Biscay trough

High pressure still in control to start the weekend

Even better than last run I think

Edited July 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM version of next week is hot posibly very hot then turning less hot(but still warm)and much slacker with thundery showers breaking out as pressure falls across the BI.

After that who knows but with so much disagreement at 96h its a wait and see for now.

[cheese]

ECM is sticking to its guns this morning, hot to very hot next week, 15C isotherm covering the vast majority of the UK by Tuesday, moving west by Thursday over Ireland (but still covering southern England), with 12 - 14C uppers for the rest of us. No signs of an immediate breakdown this morning from the ECM, but the UKMO continues to be bullish with the possibility of a breakdown as early as Tuesday. Interesting times.

Edited July 19, 2013 by cheese

[shedhead]

Notice this morning that the MO/BBC are talking about the heat hanging on next week, so they clearly are not backing the progressive nature of their own model. That said all 3 again agree this morning that a breakdown in coming next week, the only real question being which day, with options ranging from Tues UKMO, Weds GFS and Thurs ECM.  FI on GFS is again shown to be essentially cool and wet going into the first week of Aug, which may or may not prove to be correct, but like it or not that is the pattern being consistently modelled.

[Captain Shortwave]

Notice this morning that the MO/BBC are talking about the heat hanging on next week, so they clearly are not backing the progressive nature of their own model. That said all 3 again agree this morning that a breakdown in coming next week, the only real question being which day, with options ranging from Tues UKMO, Weds GFS and Thurs ECM.  FI on GFS is again shown to be essentially cool and wet going into the first week of Aug, which may or may not prove to be correct, but like it or not that is the pattern being consistently modelled.

Really? ECM shows a breakdown for Monday week now, yes there is thunderstorms forecast for THursday/Friday in the South but the pattern holds thoughout the following weekend.

Fantastic ECM run

2 ECM ops on the bounce delaying the breakdown to the following week.

Edited July 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[draztik]

That said all 3 again agree this morning that a breakdown in coming next week, the only real question being which day, with options ranging from Tues UKMO, Weds GFS and Thurs ECM. FI on GFS is again shown to be essentially cool and wet going into the first week of Aug, which may or may not prove to be correct, but like it or not that is the pattern being consistently modelled.

cant disagree. Even the ecm still shows a return to fresher weather at the end of its run. As you say, its coming, but when? That's still to be resolved!i will concede, however, that the breakdown is continuously pushed back - if the ecm is your favoured model. Gsf remains firm, its suggesting raincoats and umbrellas ay the ready!! Edited July 19, 2013 by draztik

[Scorcher]

Draztik you've been saying 'it's coming' for about a week now. The ECM is slightly cooler at the end of its run but its still warm. Again, you're putting all the emphasis on FI when the ECM is still showing some real heat in the reliable timeframe- in fact it looks hotter than last  night's run to me!

[draztik]

Draztik you've been saying 'it's coming' for about a week now. The ECM is slightly cooler at the end of its run but its still warm. Again, you're putting all the emphasis on FI when the ECM is still showing some real heat in the reliable timeframe- in fact it looks hotter than last  night's run to me!

i have never suggested part of next week wouldn't be pleasant. I think i have been pretty fair in my views regarding the breakdown. Again, the ecm seems to be on its own at this stage! Waiting for the gsf 6z run to better understand and analyze the early part of next week. But i agree, the ecm is better than its earlier run, and id be foolish to disregard it. Which is why im not!

[phil nw.]

A new thread well overdue methinks so please everyone hold off from posting for just a short time whilst i open the new one.

Thankyou.

[phil nw.]

Right then this is now locked.

New thread to continue with model discussion here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77295-model-output-discussion-00z-190713/