west pacific Tropical Storm Cimaron

[Somerset Squall]

A tropical depression has formed east of the Philippines, with sustained winds of 25kts. The depression has an expanding area of convection over the LLCC, but there is no convective banding at present. 08W is forecast to move northwestwards towards Luzon and scrape the northeastern coast. This motion is expected due to ridging to the northeast exerting a southeasterly steering flow. Then, as a trough approaches from the west, 08W is expected to turn towards the north-northwest, scrape western Taiwan, move up the Taiwan Strait and make landfall on Eastern China, in a similar area to where Typhoon Soulik made landfall last week. This track is subject to change and small deviations could mean 08W spends longer over Luzon, or indeed longer over Taiwan. If the track shifts east due to a stronger trough, 08W could instead move up the east coast of Taiwan and largely avoid Eastern China. Either way, Taiwan looks to be in the firing line for some more flooding rains, and Luzon looks very likely to be impacted too.

 

Just how much 08W strengthens really does depend a lot on the track. Shear is low and waters are warm, so land interaction is going to be the main player in just how strong 08W gets. JTWC forecast a peak of 45kts, which could be a little conservative if 08W heads east of Luzon and Taiwan. If it stays to the current track of moving over Northeast Luzon and then Western Taiwan/Eastern China then 45kts may well be the peak.

 

Interesting track:

 

[Coast]

 

As of early Monday evening, EDT, Tropical Depression 08W has formed east of the northern Philippines. The center of TD 08W was located about 250 miles east of Manila, Philippines. Highest sustained winds were near 35 mph with movement towards the west-northwest at 6 to 7 mph.

 

For the next 24 to 48 hours, TD 08W is forecast to track mostly towards the northwest, tracking near or over the northeastern tip of Luzon Island on Tuesday, local time. Strengthening to a tropical storm could take place before approach to land. The most likely adverse impact to northern Philippines will be heavy rain and localized flooding, although damaging winds cannot be ruled out.Beyond northern Luzon, TD 08 W should track towards the northwest, potentially interacting with Taiwan and eastern China later in the week.

 

Elsewhere, no other tropical cyclone development is foreseen over the next few days.

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/west-pacific

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 08W has struggled to consolidate since it's birth, but has finally shown signs of organisation and strengthening and has become Tropical Storm Cimaron, with winds now at 35kts. Convection has become more persistant over the LLCC, something that wasn't happening yesterday. In addition, banding features are forming around the storm. The system has brought some heavy rains to Luzon but is now moving away to the north. The track forecast has shifted a little to the west since I last posted, as the ridge to the northeast is expected to hold out against the approaching trough. This means a landfall is now progged for southeast China, well east of Hong Kong. Cimaron should still bring heavy rains to Taiwan as it nears. Cimaron has a day or two left to strengthen in low shear and warm water conditions prior to landfall.

[Coast]

 

Taiwan issues sea warning for Tropical Storm Cimaron

 

 

Taipei, July 17 (CNA) The Central Weather Bureau issued a sea warning for Tropical Storm Cimaron on Wednesday, warning boats operating on the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines to be on alert. The sea warning for Cimaron, the eighth storm of the 2013 Pacific typhoon season, was issued at 10:30 a.m. As of 11 a.m. Wednesday, the storm was centered some 330 kilometers south-southeast of Eluanbi on the southernmost tip of Taiwan, moving in a northwesterly direction at a speed of 17 km per hour, the weather bureau said. It was packing sustained winds of 65 kph, with gusts of up to 90 kph.

As Cimaron approaches Taiwan, its outer band could trigger occasional downpours and increasingly high waves in the southern part of the island beginning Wednesday evening, forecasters cautioned. The heaviest rainfall from the storm will likely come on Thursday, when Cimaron is at its closest to Taiwan, and should affect southern Taiwan and the eastern counties of Yilan, Hualien and Taitung, the bureau said. The unstable weather pattern could last until Friday, when Cimaron continues on its northwestern course toward China's southeastern coast. Based on current projections of the storm's path, which show the center of the storm moving south of Taiwan, the bureau said the chances that it will issue a land warning for Taiwan are relatively low.

Cimaron means wild bull in the Philippines. 

 

 

 

http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201307170014.aspx

[Somerset Squall]

Cimaron is making landfall in southeast China as a 40kt tropical storm. Cimaron has made landfall much further west than originally expected so will not affect eastern China or Taiwan. In fact, the impact to southeast china is minimal as the storm looks to be weakening on landfall.