Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 17th July 2013 onwards

[ChezWeather]

Off to Cornwall for a week tonight and if any storms fire in Chesterfield next week, i am going to be exceptionally mad. 

[nitro_deluxe]

Absolute amazing charts for Chesterfield at the mo? Bulls-eye! mega cape and Li means business.

Saying that the SW could well see some action, joking aside..

[Tom Jarvis]

Will my area be in a good area for the storms or will the hills of the South Downs inhibit the storms??

[Supacell]

Off to Cornwall for a week tonight and if any storms fire in Chesterfield next week, i am going to be exceptionally mad. 

 

I would imagine at some point there is a good risk for Chesterfield next week, but Cornwall likely to be better. 

[Bluebreezer54]

Will my area be in a good area for the storms or will the hills of the South Downs inhibit the storms??

Not quite sure where you get this impression the South Downs inhibit storms all the time Tom ?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Looks dark south of here.

[michail]

Well that was a nice surprise!!!! A thunderstorm over Co.Mayo Ireland! slap bang on top of me! produced much needed heavy rain (the first rain after 15 days). This is by far already the best summer spell for me. I'm so happy!

[Wet'n'Dry]

An interesting video here >

 

 

Looking forward to next week, hopefully we can all stay safe and enjoy the storms!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Estofex forecast out for tomorrow with far south-western areas may have the odd chance of a storm and should see some offshore CB's around.

[Nick F]

Models seem to be converging over the idea of widespread storms moving NE across England and Wales Tuesday night and through Wednesday, as a trough swings in from the SW and interacts with temps in the 30s and high humidity. Could be some potential for severe storms, given the heat/humidity and a strengthening southerly jet on the forward side of the approaching trough/upper low.

 

GFS suggests some storms perhaps breaking out across SW England and Wales before then on Monday and Tuesday, but the main event could be Tuesday night and Wednesday.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Models seem to be converging over the idea of widespread storms moving NE across England and Wales Tuesday night and through Wednesday, as a trough swings in from the SW and interacts with temps in the 30s and high humidity. Could be some potential for severe storms, given the heat/humidity and a strengthening southerly jet on the forward side of the approaching trough/upper low.

 

GFS suggests some storms perhaps breaking out across SW England and Wales before then on Monday and Tuesday, but the main event could be Tuesday night and Wednesday.

With this Tuesday night into Wednesday event what places would be at risk?

[davehsug]

Estofex forecast out for tomorrow with far south-western areas may have the odd chance of a storm and should see some offshore CB's around.showforecast.cgi.png

Looks like my trip to Santander was a week to early! I'll bet the charts for Biscay on Sunday will be juicy.

[DAVID SNOW]

With this Tuesday night into Wednesday event what places would be at risk?

You are in a prime spot,then further Ne  to the midlands and the NE, have a nagging doubt that the SE will miss out.

[Ben Sainsbury]

You are in a prime spot,then further Ne  to the midlands and the NE, have a nagging doubt that the SE will miss out.

Good old Bristol;). However you still may have a slim opportunity all Monday?

[Convective]

Anyone just listened to the little snippet on BBC News about thunderstorms for next week? The presenter even asked ''I might be mistaken but I seem to remember you would have these heatwaves and a big buildup then massive thunderstorms?''. No, don't worry.. these things have become a thing of the past. Will be interesting to see what the models and forecasts give over the next few days!

Edited July 19, 2013 by Convective

[AWD]

Good old Bristol;). However you still may have a slim opportunity all Monday?

I hate being in a "prime location" 5 days out from a potential event as the "prime location" always changes and is always different to that forecast.This does look good for the south and west;But it's likely to change over the weekend! Edited July 19, 2013 by AWD

[Nick F]

T+120 fax looking good for humdingers across many areas on Wednesday, though unlikely to look exactly like that come the day!

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Did ye folks catch that cell to the north west of Ireland casting a shadow all the way to Wales?

 

 

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85600969&postcount=108

 

[nitro_deluxe]

Hard not to get a little bit excited though...that would indeed bring the goods for quite a few? Very lively ones for some..

If 32C does go out without a whimper then I'll be pretty amazed tbh. And considering

In fact - I'd be stunned! Hard to imagine a fail following not three hot days but three weeks, and a thunderstorm..

[Cheshire Freeze]

Did ye folks catch that cell to the north west of Ireland casting a shadow all the way to Wales?

 

 

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85600969&postcount=108

 

That's awesome!

Hard not to get a little bit excited though...that would indeed bring the goods for quite a few? Very lively ones for some..

If 32C does go out without a whimper then I'll be pretty amazed tbh. And considering

In fact - I'd be stunned! Hard to imagine a fail following not three hot days but three weeks, and a thunderstorm..

 

Yes and up here the cells are shown to hit overnight. Been a loooong loooong time since we've had overnight storms here!

[nitro_deluxe]

T+120 fax looking good for humdingers across many areas on Wednesday, though unlikely to look exactly like that come the day!

 

fax_120.png

Hard not to get a little bit excited though...that would indeed bring the goods for quite a few? Very lively ones for some..

If 32C does go out without a whimper then I'll be pretty amazed tbh. And considering

In fact - I'd be stunned! Hard to imagine a fail following not three hot days but three weeks, and a thunderstorm..

[ZONE 51]

Did ye folks catch that cell to the north west of Ireland casting a shadow all the way to Wales?

 

 

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=85600969&postcount=108

Amazing thanks for this! Wonder how big the shadows would be from next weeks MCS's.. 

Rules have changed It's now 3 weeks and a thunderstorm

[paul m]

Trying not to get my hopes up for next week. According to the storm chance on here it would be wed afternoon. Anybody know any different

[ZONE 51]

Need to ask about an event during the 90s, I can't find my weather records books at the moment, it was a great storm that lasted all night on a hot May night sometime in the 90s that's all I remember date wise sorry! I believe it was an MCS of vast scale, I remember watching it come up from the south with lighting flashing frequently in the south around 12am/1am and east to west horizon, it lasted until early morning it moved right over and to London(was in Surrey)then it moved up the east side UK to NE. I want some videos so some links would be great. I think it was beginning of May possibly the 5th. Thanks.

 

Not saying much on storms at moment but I'm interested in the FAX chart for Wednesday.. as mentioned these change(but not always to much) but I expect something like that set-up maybe as shown, we should get more space for action let's say less eastwards usual shifts.. better not I don't like saying that llet's reverse it erm.. more easttwords shift.. (yep jumble word I know!)

Edited July 20, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Mid next week maybe earlier(mainly SW) things on the thunder front could I should say should get quite active, I can say also we might(lot's of could's/might's/maybe's)get some active night storms, this due to timings of the plume and kick off and interactions also any homegrowns going on late too. For imports maybe MCS these storms build over in France, these storms during late afternoon and evening these move north into the night making landfall on south coast late evening first moving north.

 

I would expect the whole of the South UK (at first) is at risk of some heavy thunderstorms and don't want to mention the possibility of flash flooding although we need the rain it could come to much at once.

Edited July 20, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm