Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Darren Bown]

Metoffice want to throw the stuff in the mids eastwards quite quickly this morning to leave a relatively dry afternoon (their rainfall forecast)

[I Cumbria Marra I]

its coming! very very heavy rain and thunder!!!! keeeeemonnn

[A.J]

morning, jeez I'm knackered...a noisy & flashy night indeed, and still thundering in the distance

[Norfolk Sheep]

Pfft -  "western portions of East Anglia...weakening and fragmenting by Tuesday morning". Hopeless.

[Bluebreezer54]

Perhaps everyone not in the S and E will stop going on about "Storms are always in the S and E". They most definitely aren't and haven't been since the 1980s.....

 

I know what you're saying but Kent and Essex seem to have done very well last night......and I do mean VERY well !!

 

Barely a squeak here though.

[P-M]

Is that lot trundling up in to the NE intensifying?  Never?  

[toggerob]

Reportedly this is the Piccadilly lightning strike responsible for the current signalling issues.

 

[Cloudwatcher]

Humid with drizzle here now....

[Glocken73_2013]

Please please give me more just woke up in time for the last storm, rainfall rate was something special but lightning was pretty hit and miss!

[Supacell]

Just an observation but we int the UK have much more thundery activity than France currently 

[Costa Del Fal]

Going to carry on for a while here yet. Stuff around Gloucester is heading this way and intensifying. Few more flashes and rumbles again now. It isn't over for

Another hour it so yet!

[Boro Snow]

Woke by a boom at 7.30 looks like it's intensifying just south of me aswell, very heavy rain

[Infinituum]

Anyone spot the next batch currently moving NNE from The Bay of Biscay? Should be an interesting afternoon/evening in S/SE England...

[P-M]

God the cell just near Middlesbrough has exploded to life - anyone on the ground tell us what conditions are like?

[cheese]

Suppose that's it for us until this afternoon/evening - Met Office are insistent that something will pop up then. But more important duties beckon for the day..

God the cell just near Middlesbrough has exploded to life - anyone on the ground tell us what conditions are like?

That's the one that weakened here as it approached, and then intensified once it got north of us. Enjoy!

[Harry]

Yay more thunder...what treat to re-awake to

[Beverley Lass]

Wow, we had two huge thunderstorms last night, one around 1am the next at 4am.

Almost continual flashing and banging during the storms. A useful amount of rain, but thankfully not flooding.

The lightening was so bright it temporarily took your eyesight and the booms resonated through

your very bones !!

For the first time ever, it made our house alarm ring even though turned off. Once it did ring, the

next two times we rushed to re-set it in time. The radio alarm came on too and the outside security lights.

I could hear the same all over our village, lol.

Enjoyed it, but bit bog-eyed now.

Just heard another distant rumble.

 

B. 

[Sainsbo]

I think that it's mostly over now for Swindon, unless anything else pops up, which can't be ruled out. Not that I can complain. Some great loud thunder, fork lightning, and over an inch of rain!

[jam2010]

In hoping that next lot will hit Manchester. I'm going to have to go work soon and ill miss it in an office :-(

[Tim B]

Darwen, 7 AM.

 

 

A weakly electrified storm though it produced some quite nice structured lightning just like that one, I sure am interested in seeing what the rest of the day brings now.

[P-M]

 

Slight Potential for an Isolated Tornado Event 15z-19z for Borders, Northumberland & Durham.

Outlook certainly has more realistic potential than Mon for surface based results. Pockets of imported elevated thundery showers remain on going throughout today for many parts. The lack of earlier surface based development and a continued feed of theta will likely sustain better surface moisture on its transit northwards today. As solar heating warm surface temps we can expect to see a moderate risk of thunderstorms derived from within the boundary layer central and northern UK regions. Whilst WRF and to some degree GFS continue to predict exceptionally high CAPE values the now jet stream looks to primarily stay to the west side of the UK with only partial overlay to instability. There is nevertheless some scope for isolated storm cell (possible supercell) based on a low shear/high instability scenario. WRF go for 2200 j/kg CAPE and around 40kts at 500mb which might be regarded as the low end periphery for supercell development.
In addition to the above whilst in general the low level shear does not look outstanding, there would appear to be a tornado risk by late afternoon primarily 15Z-19Z NE England/ SW Scotland where forecast vertical wind profiles show a sharp veer in direction shear at low levels Also levels of QG Forcing (Quasi Geostrophic Forcing) are such that we may see areas of point deluge causing local flooding. Indications currently look to be around Oxford where initial storms could develop upscale for a time.

Ultimately this outlook shows more severe potential than any other outlook so far this year!

 

 

FROM TONY GILBERT AT ukweatherworld.co.uk

[Lazz]

To think that 12 hours ago, most of us on here started having doubts, figuring 'oh well, its tomorrow when things are meant to really kick off'. Then what followed was 12 hours of mother nature doing putting on one of the best light shows most of us have ever seen

[Robbie Garrett]

Oh what a night..

 

Possible MCS moving up over the north eastern part of the Bay of Biscay, It's heading this way by the looks of things,

 

http://www.sat24.com/?ir=true&ra=false&region=gb

[sparky1972]

no thunder or lighting here for a while now, still rainning moderatly though, think we have had our fun for the day, thank you mother nature, was a great 5 hours.

[nanu]

I know there's a high prob of home grown storms today but at mo there's a huge storm dev north of bordeaux that may well have our names on it for later.