South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[AWD]

Anybody want to get wet this weekend?

;)

[Bristawl Si]

 

Anybody want to get wet this weekend?

image.jpg

Any thunder and lightning likely as well Saturday eve/night, AWD?

[AWD]

Any thunder and lightning likely as well Saturday eve/night, AWD?

For Bristol and surrounding areas, not really. I'd give it less than 5% as things stand.For Wiltshire and Dorset, a tad higher at 20%. For Hampshire eastwards, that's where the main risk is. Could be a lively night down that area for some.Worth noting though that the atmosphere over us and more especially over France (where a lot of thunderstorm activity is developing) is very volatile and predicting the nature of storm development is very hard. A change in atmosphere over France in the next few days could have massive consequences on our atmosphere too.I think areas immediately west of the Met Office warning for this weekend should be very interested. Otherwise, it's back to our old friend, the radar. A lot will change inbetween now and the weekend.

[AWD]

This is the 72 hour updated FAX from the Met Office;

Thunderstorm development is possible anywhere between the front and the 564DAM line. The closer you are to the front though, the greater the risk increases.

This is likely to change however. Just trying to give an idea on how tricky this weekends weather is to call.

[lettice]

we just had a bit of drizzle

cats rushed indoors just in case it got worse, they looked well upset

[festivalking]

Well the waterbutts are full the garden is soaked through and the sun is out again. Rain at night sun by day, could get used to this

[island lad]

This is the 72 hour updated FAX from the Met Office;

image.jpg

Thunderstorm development is possible anywhere between the front and the 564DAM line. The closer you are to the front though, the greater the risk increases.

This is likely to change however. Just trying to give an idea on how tricky this weekends weather is to call.

Am I right in thinking that chart puts the Isle of wight in the firing line ?

[AWD]

Am I right in thinking that chart puts the Isle of wight in the firing line ?

Potentially, yes!

[island lad]

Potentially, yes!

Thought so. Be nice if it comes off. Been very humid and dry here.

[AWD]

Thought so. Be nice if it comes off. Been very humid and dry here.

I emphasis the word potentially though. Long way to go and a lot could change in what's a very volatile, developing situation.

[littlemissy]

became rather muggy here and some lovely black clouds forming about 10 mins ago ,had a few bigs spots of rain and the sun popped out .Be interesting to see if it will trigger anything other than rain.

[Andy Bown]

Yay, had some rain overnight, checked my water buts this morning, about 10% full

One of mine is half full and the other a third full so enough for a week's worth of evenings watering the hanging baskets etc unless we get further bouts of rain.

9mm here overnight which given how wild it sounded at times between 01.00-03.00 is surprisingly low.

Another glorious and very warm day with the temp pushing 25c again!

[littlemissy]

became rather muggy here and some lovely black clouds forming about 10 mins ago ,had a few bigs spots of rain and the sun popped out .Be interesting to see if it will trigger anything other than rain.

well errr no was the  answer and the few spots it produced have dried up.I'm either running a temperature or to me it feels horribly muggy again.But it is good to feel warmth again in the summer months so i can put up with it all!

[noggin]

Well, just in case that lovely lot of rain does come at the weekend, I'd better get my two waterbutts plumbed in. That should be fun.......I have to drill holes and cut through the downpipes to fit the diverters.

 

Oh, I've just seen the forecast on the beeb........they have it more to the East; might only be a bit for us. Have to wait and see, I suppose.

[bristolstormchaser]

There seems to be a chance developing that the thundery plume come up from northern France on Saturday could develop. Looking at some models there could be a development on the western edge affecting eastern Wilts, north Somerset, Bristol and Glocestershire. I know it's early days as far as the development of this type of weather system is concerned. Let's see how things go :-)

[AWD]

12z NAE could provide something interesting on Saturday afternoon around the Solent area;

[AWD]

What I would give for those graphics Ian just showed on his forecast for the weekend to of been over my area.

That was some stormy graphics for the South East.

[SNOWYLAD]

What I would give for those graphics Ian just showed on his forecast for the weekend to of been over my area.That was some stormy graphics for the South East.

 

I'm guessing its all gone East again then!

[AWD]

I'm guessing its all gone East again then!

It never came west in the first place! lol. Uncertainty was the key word though.

[SNOWYLAD]

It never came west in the first place! lol. Uncertainty was the key word though.

 

Fergieweather was suggesting Twitter that it may stretch as far West as Bristol, I guess that may of been previous model runs.....oh well still waiting for that elusive first storm here in Yeovil for 2013.

[AWD]

Fergieweather was suggesting Twitter that it may stretch as far West as Bristol, I guess that may of been previous model runs.....oh well still waiting for that elusive first storm here in Yeovil for 2013.

That's probably covering all corners. To be fair, there is so much volatility and uncertainty that almost anything could happen.The South East is currently favoured, hence the South East bias, but it could easily form further west or further east.

[Tamara]

That's probably covering all corners. To be fair, there is so much volatility and uncertainty that almost anything could happen.

The South East is currently favoured, hence the South East bias, but it could easily form further west or further east.

You are all welcome to it  A last minute swerve either side of here is fine by me 

[Andy Bown]

What I would give for those graphics Ian just showed on his forecast for the weekend to of been over my area.That was some stormy graphics for the South East.

A Saturday afternoon MCS reminds me of a Saturday in May (I think 1997) which was the 2nd of 3 thundery outbreaks in 5 days, the first of which had seen elevated storms move North on the Thursday evening with spectacular lightning. The 3rd was on the following Tuesday night.That Saturday started hot and sunny, ended humid and bright, but had 3 to 4 hours of torrential rain and frequent lightning in the afternoon which started with the greenest sky I have ever seen as the system's CBs approached.So hope it comes to pass that our region is affected, however I'd rather it go far enough East to leave us dry, bright and warm than close enough to give a dull damp day!

[Nights King]

well doesn't look great for any storms in our region

 

Have they created the no storms thread or do I just update the first one I posted in 5 years ago

[AWD]

Here you go Mullender;

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75963-the-no-storms-club-nsc/page-13#entry2751139

I won't be joining you in there this year though!