South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Lynxus]

you might find this useful...

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75963-the-no-storms-club-nsc/page-13#entry2751139 

 

I don't care what any of you say.

I'm gonna get a huge storm tomorrow.. Just you watch!

[MP-R]

God this weather annoys me. Went into Bristol yesterday to take some pictures in the sun and it clouded over for the few hours I was there only to clear again by the time I had arrived home. I went to the Harbour Festival this morning in the hope of getting some sunny pictures and the whole morning was plagued by unforecast high cloud and now it's flippin clear now that I am at home. Even better, a disgusting day is now on the cards tomorrow for my weekend outdoor plans.

 

High pressure come back!

 

(rant over)

Edited July 26, 2013 by Miguel Hugo Roberto

[Sainsbo]

So it looks like Saturday night could be a wet one, especially in the east of our region? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23463966

 

Assuming this doesn't change and it completely miss us..

[littlemissy]

the weather is certainly teasing us that's for sure.It feels very very warm and thundery here in Welly this afternoon.Some very interesting "cauliflower "towers seemed to be building up to mt North west ,but not really sure what's going on.......................Bright sunshine to my south but cloud to the north .We shall see......................... :-)

[AWD]

Latest NAE has nothing more than a bit of drizzle for the West Country and some big standard moderate falls for C/S Counties;

However, for balance, I'll also add this from Ian Fergusson;

"12Z NAE, with MCS drawn up frm Biscay to SE areas into AM, being classed as outlier and not followed for our forecast expectations tomorrow."

And the 12z GFS gives us all a good soaking;

The confusion remains!!

Edited July 26, 2013 by AWD

[island lad]

As an isle of wight resident I'm guessing things could get pretty lively 24 hours from now. I'm not going to hold out much hope for a light show tomorrow but some significant rainfall is deffo on the cards. Your thoughts ?

[AWD]

As an isle of wight resident I'm guessing things could get pretty lively 24 hours from now. I'm not going to hold out much hope for a light show tomorrow but some significant rainfall is deffo on the cards. Your thoughts ?

Agree with that mate. Although where you are, some lightning to your east is a possibility.You do look like getting wet though, but amounts hard to call, even this close to the event.

[Lynxus]

Latest NAE has nothing more than a bit of drizzle for the West Country and some big standard moderate falls for C/S Counties;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

However, for balance, I'll also add this from Ian Fergusson;

"12Z NAE, with MCS drawn up frm Biscay to SE areas into AM, being classed as outlier and not followed for our forecast expectations tomorrow."

And the 12z GFS gives us all a good soaking;

image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

The confusion remains!!

 

Wow, GFS showing a LOT of rain for glos.... Floods again?

[AWD]

Wow, GFS showing a LOT of rain for glos.... Floods again?

Considering the ground is so dry currently, you might get running surface water and localised minor flooding but I doubt you'll get the proper "severe flooding" parts of Gloucestershire have had in the past due to dry ground and low river levels. Edited July 26, 2013 by AWD

[Lynxus]

Considering the ground is so dry currently, you might get running surface water and localised minor flooding but I doubt you'll get the proper "severe flooding" parts of Gloucestershire have had in the past due to dry ground and low river levels.

 

Thats a fair point.. River was a good foot or so lower than normal when I went on it last week.

Spose we need nasty rain and lots of it up north of the river too.

 

Still. Should be fun to watch.. Then again. may end up as normal moderate rain for a few hours and then bye bye.

[island lad]

Agree with that mate. Although where you are, some lightning to your east is a possibility.You do look like getting wet though, but amounts hard to call, even this close to the event.

We need it mate. Looks more like Majorca down here. (Was out there three weeks ago). We've been unlucky with lighting strikes, none what so ever. But looking like next week holds a bit more promise.

[Nights King]

I expect the  NAE will be correct and we shall have a drizzle fest.   That 12z Gfs would be interesting though if it ever came to fruition.

[stevofunnelcl]

Yes !!

 

Heavy showers / thunderstorms being mentioned met office forecast

 

South-West England for Sunday

 

Those "naughty word" in the south-east won't get all the fun

[jessandjon]

Bbc weather showed no rain for us

[George]

Yea please...

[AWD]

Bbc weather showed no rain for us

There is unlikely to be any rain in Cornwall tomorrow. Sunday however, is looking more interesting for you down there.

[jessandjon]

There is unlikely to be any rain in Cornwall tomorrow. Sunday however, is looking more interesting for you down there.

Oh good!! Will make a change ;-)

[AWD]

I'm liking my Sunday forecast;

Looks like those water butts could be topped up in the next few days though.

[noggin]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/winterbourne-(south-gloucestershire)#?tab=fiveDay

 

Hmmmm, no thunder forecast for here.

 

Still, I've managed to get my two water butts plumbed in, I just hope I've done it right and the rain doesn't spew all over the place!

[lfcdude]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather10m

W COUNTRY CONTD Possibly 15-30mm rain widely approx M5 corridor & eastwards, BUT error margin E-W could be 50-100 miles: stress uncertainty!

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather8m

W COUNTRY CONTD Lightning threat considered v limited in this W'rn corridor of rain as it tracks N, but heavy rain poss disruptive in places

 

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather6m

Elsewhere, storm potential highest perhaps Sussex/Kent albeit possible core of any MCS (if formed/re-formed) *may* skirt SE just offshore.

 

 

Edited July 26, 2013 by lfcdude

[Nights King]

^{my friend wants to go to Bristol harbour festival Saturday night! I don't think so...}  

[lfcdude]

^{my friend wants to go to Bristol harbour festival Saturday night! I don't think so...}  

 

 

At least their will be boats?

[Nights King]

At least their will be boats?

   I fell right into that one!

[AWD]

I too, was thinking of going to the harbour festival this afternoon, but I might just leave it now as I can't get there before 14:00 and with forecasts like these;

It sounds like a bit of a washout.

[AWD]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY SAT Increasing cloud AM; showers/outbreaks of rain spreading N to reach M4 around early afternoon. Heaviest rain later in E areas."

"F'cast for Bristol Harbour Fest is showers/rain by early afternoon, perhaps heavier late afternoon to mid-eve but could clear for 10pm fireworks"

"W COUNTRY Likely that any heavier rain today will pass up thro more eastern areas, i.e. Wilts, Glos, later afternoon to mid-late eve"

"W COUNTRY SUNDAY A much better day for many with warm sunny spells. Heavy showers/few t-storms later - in W especially - but not everywhere!"

Edited July 27, 2013 by AWD