The Midlands Regional Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[azores92]

doubt we'll get any thundery activity tomorrow if im honest, looking at the majority of models, once again the majority of activity will be in essex/suffolk area i wouldve thought over to parts of the home counties. Will be bog standard rain over here, and probably not enough to replenish the ground after such dry weather of late.

[nitro_deluxe]

doubt we'll get any thundery activity tomorrow if im honest, looking at the majority of models, once again the majority of activity will be in essex/suffolk area i wouldve thought over to parts of the home counties. Will be bog standard rain over here, and probably not enough to replenish the ground after such dry weather of late.

I suspect we've had better chances before in these kind of set ups - really does depend where initial storms develop and continue to do so in likes of France - should they become quite nasty and more widespread The Channel is hardly going to affect them much, saying that positioning is key as they migrate away from the mainland.Sun beating down in between more cloudier slots - sun feels hot, who knows we may well have a few surprises in store yet. Even the experts are struggling with this one Edited July 26, 2013 by triple_x1

[Gord]

Tomorrow night will just be wet for us...nothing thundery. I think our main interest will be in Sunday. If the clag from the overnight rain can get out of the way in time...we might get a few homegrown storms later in the day.

 

I still reckon South East and East Anglia are the places to be tomorrow night....well, France and Belgium will actually be the places to be but you get my drift!

[nitro_deluxe]

After a fresher feeling few days, seems more sultry again - winds calm, definitely plenty to get stuck into from now on!

Getting the balance right - between pure and utter selfish hopecasting to hard factual guidance and evidence is harder now than ever

[Gord]

Just to keep our thread alive while those over in the east and south study that big blob in the Bay of Biscay...

 

...beautiful night out there. The moon looks stunning. Looking forward to getting a good dose of rain for my water butt and the garden tomorrow...although looks like rather a lot of rain to me according to some models!

 

I'll sit in with a cup of tea with the rain beating against the window, log onto here and see if anyone in the south-east or central south is getting the weather they want. Worth looking in on what's happening across the near continent as well of course. 

 

We might not get the thunder and lightning here tomorrow...but it's weather that's a good excuse for a lazy Saturday! That'll do me right now with how busy I've been recently!

Edited July 26, 2013 by Gord

[klippieboo]

Another none starter for those of us west of brum! Cant remember the last decent storm we had in shropshire!!

[Snowmoon]

This is a rare summer appearance for me, but I get excited by the prospect of thunderstorms as well as snow! Thunderstorms are pretty rare in this neck of the woods, although we had a nice one in the early hours the other day. The weather forecasts are pretty much unchanged this morning with regard to how the heaviest rain is supposed to track northwards today, but I'm puzzled why nothing at all is visible on the radar over France and the English Channel yet?

 

I understand that what's currently skirting across the extreme south-east isn't supposed to be today's main event, but there's no sign of anything else at all on the radar at present? Is it going to bubble up out of nowhere once the temperature starts to go up? Also, compared to the track of the current storm down in the south-east, there would need to be a change for anything to move northwards.

[Barbmac]

This is a rare summer appearance for me, but I get excited by the prospect of thunderstorms as well as snow! Thunderstorms are pretty rare in this neck of the woods, although we had a nice one in the early hours the other day. The weather forecasts are pretty much unchanged this morning with regard to how the heaviest rain is supposed to track northwards today, but I'm puzzled why nothing at all is visible on the radar over France and the English Channel yet?

 

I understand that what's currently skirting across the extreme south-east isn't supposed to be today's main event, but there's no sign of anything else at all on the radar at present? Is it going to bubble up out of nowhere once the temperature starts to go up? Also, compared to the track of the current storm down in the south-east, there would need to be a change for anything to move northwards.

'ello fellow Malvern-ite! Yes we had quite a light show a few nights back, although it didn't pass directly overhead (probably just as well). I have spotted a mass of thundery precipitation on the radar further south, and if anything has our name on it, that probably does. The lightning on that and the other blob looks intense. I don't know about the track of it, I guess it depends what the airflow is like as it reaches our shores, but that looks to be the one to keep an eye on.

[nitro_deluxe]

Hi all.

Developments currently way down over Biscay are our best bet of anything slightly conducive of electrical activity, for us slightly further west... Sferics are now showing within this main area, which surely can only be a good sign? Whole area slowly transferring north, can imagine there'll be several zones/pulses of more intense rain with thunder, all set to arrive overnight continuing into the small hours.

My guess southern C Mids 10pm ish, around midnight in the north of our patch.

Hard to imagine looking at current sunny, calm and warm conditions, some locally high precipitation spot totals quite likely with subsequent localised flash flooding in the mix, is only a matter of hours away!

Enjoy.

Edited July 27, 2013 by triple_x1

[conor123]

Don't think i'm gonna bother radar/satellite watching today, already know by now the routine, lovely morning thus far, plenty of sun even with the haze, 25c this afternoon getting me in the mood for 30c+ tomorrow for the next week in Cyprus

[Staffordshire]

Another none starter for those of us west of brum! Cant remember the last decent storm we had in shropshire!!

didnt you have one wednesday morning?

[Gord]

Lovely morning. A good breeze too. Doesn't feel too bad at all!

 

As for the rain, looking at the recent radar images over Biscay...can start to tell why the forecast is the way it is. Sferics showing on the eastern side of that clump of heavy rain. The western half is due for us (I think?)...while the fun half heads for the south-east. Although, am I right in thinking that we're actually supposed to get a clump that breaks off that one?

 

Reading the south-east and East Anglia thread, you'd think this was giagantic letdown. I'd be quite excited if I were them over there. Lot's to be looking out for...

 

...our thread should generate more interest tomorrow and Monday hopefully. We'll grow a few storms of our own.

 

Thunderstorms are a bit like wine. The French are superb at making them and it's usually excellent. We'll have a go, it's not the best but it'll do when there's nothing else on the menu!

Edited July 27, 2013 by Gord

[azores92]

haha love it gord, yep it looks like the majority of any electrical activity will be much further east than here, with just heavy rain over our patch; perhaps an inch or so. it must be incredible in the benelux right now, absolutely plastered with sferics and intense rain.

Edited July 27, 2013 by azores92

[Snowmoon]

The western half is due for us (I think?)...while the fun half heads for the south-east. Although, am I right in thinking that we're actually supposed to get a clump that breaks off that one?

 

Something will need to break off to get over here, as it's all heading north-eastwards at present like the one earlier this morning did and won't come within miles of the West Mids, unless that relatively puny-looking thing over Spain/Portugal erm, Western France (!), is supposed to be it?!

 

(Hello Barbmac!)

Edited July 27, 2013 by Snowmoon

[Gord]

There is now a clump of (non thundery) rain developing over the Brest penisular. Not an awful lot to it at the moment but it might be the start of the one that we're getting. One or two heavy showers ahead of it too.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Gord

[Snowmoon]

There is now a clump of (non thundery) rain developing over the Brest penisular. Not an awful lot to it at the moment but it might be the start of the one that we're getting. One or two heavy showers ahead of it too.

Yeah, the clump of showers currently near Paigton could turn into something more I suppose, but that's tracking north-eastwards as well, whereas the BBC forecast this morning showed the main rain band tracking north-north-westwards if anything. It was supposed to have clouded over here a some time ago, but it's still sunny, if a little hazy.

[nitro_deluxe]

Over 80% chance of rain tonight, 20% for any lightning thunder - 100% ice cold, thirst quenching beer, probably a Grolsch or equivalent lol.

Practically a whole month of Summer folks! And little or no let up in sight.. Temps up again next week, touching the 80s and probably more chance of home grown storms tomorrow, Monday and beyond..which could indeed prove quite potent for some.

Suits me just fine, until next trip abroad next month

[klippieboo]

didnt you have one wednesday morning?

Very distant but was nothing special . We were just on the edge i think

[shaky]

25 degrees already in leicester and seriously humid!!

[Bishop Brennan]

25 degrees already in leicester and seriously humid!!

 

Yes same here as well, much warmer than I was expecting it to be today.

 

Some beefy looking stuff heading our way judging by the radar, a bit of electrical activity within it as well

 

Bish

[Gord]

Could get a surprise here with that lot just coming on the Devon coast. Whether it holds together or not is the issue though. And how much to the north-east it drifts. I think it might be worth watching out for developments this afternoon and evening after all. Like earlier in the week, things can rapidly develop. The Bristol Channel area saved us from getting nothing on Tuesday morning! (And Monday night in Worcester)

 

The difference in dew points from one end of the country is incredible. A reletavely comfortable 11c dew point here. Getting up towards 19/20c in the extreme south east and East Anglia. It just has to go bang over that way later!

Edited July 27, 2013 by Gord

[Dancerwithwings]

The " Beefy stuff " as 'Bish' called it in the Bay of Biscay, Seems to me that its getting bigger

Edited July 27, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Snowmoon]

What was in Devon earlier is now quickly tracking northwards but has split into two with the heaviest segement to the west. Sadly for Malvern, it looks like we could be in the gap in the middle unless it fills in or develops an easterly or westerly drift. As Dancerwithwings (thanks for the graphic) has shown above, the big mass over western France should head up this way later and that could be very interesting still for this area!

[Ian Ballinger]

The rain must have started everyone left the beach at the same time  http://www.earthcam.com/world/uk/bognorregis/

[Arnie Pie]

Could get a surprise here with that lot just coming on the Devon coast. Whether it holds together or not is the issue though. And how much to the north-east it drifts. I think it might be worth watching out for developments this afternoon and evening after all. Like earlier in the week, things can rapidly develop. The Bristol Channel area saved us from getting nothing on Tuesday morning! (And Monday night in Worcester)

 

The difference in dew points from one end of the country is incredible. A reletavely comfortable 11c dew point here. Getting up towards 19/20c in the extreme south east and East Anglia. It just has to go bang over that way later!

Yes... looking like an M5 steamer to me

Bulls eye for the area.....as long as it dosn`t turn of on the M42 and head of Eastwards