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August 2013 C.E.T. Forecasts / Competition

Roger J Smith
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

I'm going to revise my guess to 16.6C, based on the warm start projected (18-19C to the 7th on the GFS) and the anomalously warm SSTs already in place.

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TonyH Experienced

TonyH

Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
Posted

16.0c please

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

A little late 15.9 ta.. 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

Lettucing Gutted

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Posted (edited)

Incredible there are only 5 people expecting a sub 16C August with also only one particularly cold (sub 15C) August.

Edited by Craig Evans
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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

After a July that has a CET >= 18 (25 in all)

  • [*]10 of them have had an august CET below 16.0.  (40%) [*]6 of them have an august CET >= 17.0 (24%) [*]The average August CET  is 16.3 [*]The average CET change July - August is 2.1

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)

Incredible there are only 5 people expecting a sub 16C August with also only one particularly cold (sub 15C) August.

I beginning to wonder if I predicted too high. It is possible, one only has to look back at Augusts, 1994, 1999 and 2006, when after a warm to hot start, the CET fell away. They came after very good summery Julys. Edited by Weather-history
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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

Interesting that out of those months 1999 and 2006 both had exceptionally warm Septembers. 2003 and 1995 both had late warm spells in September and October respectively. It seems that the heat often doesn't go quietly after a hot July.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

The minimum today is 15.9C while maxima look like reaching about 23C, so a decrease to around 20.6C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at

19.8C to the 3rd (18.1)

19.4C to the 4th (18.0)

19.2C to the 5th (18.4)

18.7C to the 6th (16.4)

18.5C to the 7th (17.5)

18.5C to the 8th (18.5)

18.5C to the 9th (18.2)

 

 

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

This is looking a less rapid decent than what we saw in July 2009 when the month started off very warm and ended up going down to below average. Instead of wet and cool (as in July 2009) there are still some warm/very warm conditions on the horizon which should make the decline more gradual this time.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

18.9c to the 5th

 

Looks like a cooling pattern for the CET for the next 10 days or so, we should be under 18C by mid month.

 

Below average looks unlikely to me still however.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Down to 17.8C in sunny Sheffield helped along by some recent cold nights and cool days.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

Looks like a cooling pattern for the CET for the next 10 days or so, we should be under 18C by mid month.

 

Below average looks unlikely to me still however.

Depends on which average you are talking. If its 61-90 then I agree probably not, but under 16.4 (81-10 av) then I think a reasonable chance. I am on holidays so not doing my regular updates, but last I looked we will be on around 16.8 mid month I think.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

Depends on which average you are talking. If its 61-90 then I agree probably not, but under 16.4 (81-10 av) then I think a reasonable chance. I am on holidays so not doing my regular updates, but last I looked we will be on around 16.8 mid month I think.

 

That's a bigger fall than i thought although uppers do look cooler than average even if not by all that much.

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SomeLikeItHot Enthusiast

SomeLikeItHot

Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
Posted

That's a bigger fall than i thought although uppers do look cooler than average even if not by all that much.

 

Yes well it might be more but I think low 17s at least by around the 15th, and the 2nd 2 weeks of august are generally about 0.8 degrees cooler than the first 2.which leaves us in the mid 16s before corrections. Of course there could be a burst of warmer weather in the 2nd half and we end up greater than 17, long way to go yet but I would suggest current runs and long term averages suggest mid 16 most likely.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

17.9C to the 7th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

Yesterday was 15.8C. Today's minimum is 9.2C, while maxima look like reaching the high 23s, so a drop to 17.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at

17.7C to the 9th (17.7)

17.5C to the 10th (15.3)

17.4C to the 11th (16.6)

17.2C to the 12th (15.0)

17.2C to the 13th (16.9)

17.2C to the 14th (18.0)

17.4C to the 15th (20.0)

 

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