August 2013 C.E.T. Forecasts / Competition

[Summer Sun]

17.1c to the 26th

[SomeLikeItHot]

17.1c to the 26th

Still bouncing along the 17.1-17.0 thresholdWith a min today of 10.7 and max likely around 21.5 then a fall to 17.0 is possible tomorrow although it would be very closer to remaining on 17.1The met offices forecasts take it to27th 17.0 (16.1)28th 17.0 (16.5)29th 17.0 (16.8 )30th 17.0 (16.3)31st 16.9 (13.8 )Likely range before corrections seems to be 16.7 - 17.1. so 16.3-17.1 possible after corrections, with somthing around 16.6-16.9 looking best. Edited August 27, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

17.0 to the 27th

Min of 12.1 today and max of around 20.5

Using met forecasts for the remainder of the period gives.

28th 17.0 (16.3)

29th 17.0 (17.3)

30th 17.0 (17.4)

31st 16.9 (13.9)

Looking like pre-corrections 16.9-17.0, post corrections 16.6 - 16.9.

Edit: I should mention this is all on the daily list but not yet on the front pages, i imagine it will update soon.

Edited August 28, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

Front page confirmed as 17.0c now

[SomeLikeItHot]

17.0 to the 28th

Min today of 10.6 and max around 21 will remain on 17.0 tomorrow.

Met forecasts take it to.

29th 17.0 (15.8 )

30th 17.0 (17.2)

31st 16.9 (13.8 )

16.9 firming as favourite pre-corrections, and post-corrections this year looks to finish quite close to last year.

Edited August 29, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 29th

[SomeLikeItHot]

17.0c to the 29th

min today of 13.0 and max od around 22.5 will stay at 17.0 today.Likely to drop to 16.9 for the end of month, with a cooler day forecast.

[Isolated Frost]

16.7c likely after corrections imo, anything between 16.6c and 16.9c possible.

[March Blizzard]

Corrections can, on occasion, actually go upwards.

[DAVID SNOW]

Still some 30 members in the running to get it spot on this month, this must be a first with 1 day to go?

[Summer Sun]

17.0c to the 30th

Edited August 31, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Relativistic]

Says in the Telegraph this morning that the CET for August is 17.1C, which would mean an upward correction. I have no idea where this figure has come from though.

Edited September 1, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[SomeLikeItHot]

Says in the Telegraph this morning that the CET for August is 17.1C, which would mean an upward correction. I have no idea where this figure has come from though.

 

Its wrong. Or taken a few days ago. The final one seems to have been done on the daily list and is 16.9 (16.88)

The downward correction would seem to have been less than 0.1 degree but I can't tell exactly as they haven't updated the estimated one to the 31st - but it would likely have been around 16.91-16.93 I think.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

Edited September 1, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

16.88c is the final figure for August not on the homepage yet but its here - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

 

Final data from Philip Eden is

 

CET: (Aug 1-31): 17.1°C (+0.5 degC)

 

E&W Rain: (Aug 1-31): 62.7mm ( 83 per cent)

 

E&W Sun: (Aug 1-31): 189.9hr ( 99 per cent)

 

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Edited September 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Relativistic]

Its wrong. Or taken a few days ago. The final one seems to have been done on the daily list and is 16.9 (16.88)

The downward correction would seem to have been less than 0.1 degree but I can't tell exactly as they haven't updated the estimated one to the 31st - but it would likely have been around 16.91-16.93 I think.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

Updated here now:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[J10]

Scores done awating Met Office CET home page to be updated.

 

If 16.9c is confirmed, 6 players got it right this week.

virtualsphere, Milhouse, mulzy, Thundery wintry showers, Aphelion369 and DAVID SNOW

 

There would be no change in the overall 1-2-3 from last month, but a new leader and winner in the Seasonal comp.

Edited September 1, 2013 by J10

[DAVID SNOW]

Very little in the way of corrections come months end this time.Nothing like  a 0.4 we have seen.

[Summer Sun]

Home page has confirmed 16.9c

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

 

1.1 above the anomoly which makes it 2 out of 3 above average months for summer 2013 with only June coming in -0.6 below the anomoly

Edited September 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Don]

Just 0.1C out, not a bad guess then.  I just hope my September guess ends up way too high!

[godber]

16.8c was my guess, a lot closer than in july, when I also guessed 16.8c. Before anyone asks, i'm not guessing 16.8c in sept!

[J10]

Now that the CET figure for August has been confirmed the scores can be published.

 

As previously indicated the overall 1-2-3 remains the same.

March Blizzard mulzy Weather-history

 

The seasonal winner was one of the players who goot it spot on, mulzy, with March Blizzard (2nd) Don (3rd)

 

Overall Scores PDF and Excel format as per usual.

 

August 2013 CET.xls

 

August 2013 CET.pdf

Edited September 2, 2013 by J10

[summer blizzard]

Only 0.7C out but 49th, not a good month.

[March Blizzard]

Mulzy is putting on the pressure, his direct hit for August has pipped him the summer title, despite me being only 0.3C out on average. I might have to organise a hit...

[Aphelion369]

My first spot on guess...yey! Not bad for a newbie - I didn't know about the post no. ranking, so must earlier next time!

[Methuselah]

I've been doing this competition (or its predecessors) for 10 years...I've never got it right yet!