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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Anyone in the skeggy regionPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL

Altocumulus clouds here, like last night. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The situation appears to be what they call a repeat tho varied

 

A much stronger jetstream looks to be the extra ingredient...

 

   

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Decent looking storm over The Wash and Skeggy area. Radar also showing developments right down into East Anglia firing up too. 

Nocturnal cooling along the ThetaE boundary?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Pretty nice storm heading over me now Posted Image

Hi zak,take some footage for us storm staved earthlings PLEASE,Posted Image

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is there anything for the stoke on trent area? we had a storm this morning very load thunder and heavy rain with loads of lightening,but trailed off around 10am with afew lightening strikes,no thunder and light showers....had absolutly nothing since around lunchtime although its still very humid.

Unlikely, warm and dry tomorrow with very pleasant sunny intervals.Next chance..dare I say Thursday and especially may be into the week end as temps nudge up again :) all subject to change, as always when convection is concerned!
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Posted
  • Location: stoke-on-trent,staffordshire
  • Location: stoke-on-trent,staffordshire

sorry im no expert on this but iv just looked out of the window and noticed some very odd looking clouds,like very long lines in lines one on top of the other...never seen anything like it before 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

sorry im no expert on this but iv just looked out of the window and noticed some very odd looking clouds,like very long lines in lines one on top of the other...never seen anything like it before 

Hi kat,i have seen this before and it kicked off big style several years ago,for us to know where you are,you need to put your location in your profile,and welcome to netweatherPosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Synopsis:

Moisture plume continues to exit to the North Sea through the first half of the forecast period, but continuing to destabilise due to the presence of a shortwave trough and surface cold front. A rather slack pattern then dominates across the British Isles until an intense upper trough approaches Ireland through the day, and western Britain overnight.

 

Discussion:

... E + NE ENGLAND, SE, E + N SCOTLAND ...

Moisture plume will continue to destablise with scattered thunderstorms possible between 00z-09z, primarily within the SLGT areas. Existing surface-based and elevated thunderstorms will continue to migrate northeastwards, while further development is possible across parts of East Anglia through the early morning hours, but generally exiting into the North Sea towards dawn and thereafter.


... SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, N WALES ...

Cooling aloft coupled with diurnal heating will result in 500-700 J/kg CAPE. A shortwave trough will allow scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening. Faster storm motion compared to recent days, despite PWAT values >25mm, should limit the risk of local flooding somewhat, with perhaps some stronger cores producing some small hail.


... IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND ...

A shortwave trough will migrate northeastwards across the area from late morning over Munster through until late evening over Ulster. Cooling mid levels accompanying a sharpening upper trough coupled with diurnal heating will result in 800+ J/kg CAPE. As a result, an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected, spreading from southwest to northeast through the afternoon and evening, particularly across western parts of Ireland and many parts of Northern Ireland. Up to 30kts DLS and LLS will allow cells to become organised, into linear features at times, and with increasingly backed surface winds and rather low LCLs a few funnels or weak tornadoes are possible. Several models suggest the formation of a slow-moving N-S line of showers/storms, or perhaps QLCS, across western parts of Ireland through the evening hours. PWAT values >30mm with frequent showers/storms moving over similar areas may result with some local flash flooding. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is also possible in any stronger cores.


... S WALES, SW ENGLAND ...

Main period of interest will be from 18z onwards as a developing frontal system develops beneath a sharpening upper trough and an approaching/strengthening jet left exit. An area of showery rain with embedded elevated thunderstorms will gradually migrate northeastwards across these areas, although with a tendency to lose lightning activity as it moves further inland through the evening. Backed surface winds may allow an isolated funnel or weak tornado to form given rather low LCLs

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/258

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Tomasz Schaffernaker has just shown graphics suggestive of scattered storms 'erupting' around the NW Midlands area tomorrow afternoon. Could tie in with this little area of CAPE shown on the GFS for tomorrow afternoon?

 

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Looks a long shot though!

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Not the new update but this is the Lifted Index for Thursday....

Posted Image

 

One to watch.

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders
  • Location: Scottish Borders

sorry im no expert on this but iv just looked out of the window and noticed some very odd looking clouds,like very long lines in lines one on top of the other...never seen anything like it before 

does it look something like this ?

 

 

 

if so then its called mackerel skies 

 

 

post-15169-0-24647900-1374615590_thumb.j

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altocumulus_mackerel_sky

Edited by john175
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Haha I'd love to but unfortunately dont have a camera Posted Image

What,you must invest in one if you like the sort of weather,although my new 1080 hd vid cam is starting to get cobb webs on it lol

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Posted
  • Location: stoke-on-trent,staffordshire
  • Location: stoke-on-trent,staffordshire

sorry im sighned in with facebook it was easier haha,im in staffordshire,stoke on trent to be exact......everywhere seems very calm but quite humid,its just those clouds caught my eye,they started off just a grey in colour now theyre black,although im not sure if thats to do with it being quite dark outside.....just seems too quiet :/

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

Some upper wind charts for this weekend (Sat eve) GFS 12z

Posted Image

 

500hpa ^^

Posted Image

 

700hpa ^^

Looking interesting and could be some organized storms

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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire

 

Some fairly cruddy images of the thunderstorm that passed between Sleaford and Lincoln earlier this evening, taken on my phone from the train.  Apols for the quality, bit gives some indication of the scale of it.

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Posted
  • Location: Grantham, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Grantham, Lincolnshire

Watching my timelapse back, (nothing too interesting I dont think, battery ran out just as the storm kicked off), its funny how clouds move in different directions at different heights.

 

 

Actually, while I post this, could someone who knows more about weather than me (everyone) tell me how far away those lower clouds in the distance are approximately?

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Posted
  • Location: stoke-on-trent,staffordshire
  • Location: stoke-on-trent,staffordshire

What,you must invest in one if you like the sort of weather,although my new 1080 hd vid cam is starting to get cobb webs on it lol

yes kind of altho not quite as drastic...and darker clouds,theres 3 rows of them,and then 2 more rows of longer ones....seem to be drifting over though now :(

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Posted
  • Location: Loughborough
  • Location: Loughborough

What,you must invest in one if you like the sort of weather,although my new 1080 hd vid cam is starting to get cobb webs on it lol

Haha might do in time for winter :) Storms stopped now anyway :/

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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted · Hidden by ZONE 51, July 24, 2013 - not needed now .. self moderation!
Hidden by ZONE 51, July 24, 2013 - not needed now .. self moderation!

Lazz I'd estimate 20-30M

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