Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

That was some storm here in skeg lost count how many strikes o lightning there was one thing i did see for first time was a strike but looked like a ball in the air crazy stuff

[PMPhotography]

A half decent storm ongoing here in Scarborough. The majority of lightning is out to sea but still looks impressive. The heavy rain out to sea too so it's just skimming us at the moment. Looking at the mass on the radar this could rumble on for a while yet though.

[ZONE 51]

A Satellite image to show you where the main activity is at the moment (20 mins ago)

The areas I have circled with yellow circles is where this action is.

Lightning(Thunderstorms) activity currently in East Scotland moving northeast/north, North East England moving up the coast, and a few near to the EA coast moving north.

 

Some active showers moving up from France possibly to Kent moving east/ne possibly developing further

Heavy pulses of rain into SW UK and West Wales moving east/northeast. These two zones do not have any lightning activity at the moment.

 

That's my last update unless on on here and spot any significant changes.

 

(Edit - just updated notes)

Edited July 24, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[nitro_deluxe]

Is it still thundering in Nottingham..anyone?

Well had a 5 minute storm here, well 5 minutes of heavy rain and a few flashes of lightning, probably the best I'm going to get.

 

 

Amber or yellow alert lol..or subtle shade of green?

[ZONE 51]

 

 

 

 

 

Some fairly cruddy images of the thunderstorm that passed between Sleaford and Lincoln earlier this evening, taken on my phone from the train.  Apols for the quality, bit gives some indication of the scale of it.

 

Must say there quite good pics and to get photos that clear from a train moving is difficult! I have tried that and always blurred on the mobile. need a fast shutter speed (my phone don't have) Low quality/bit blurry better then not getting an image. (I like the road going into the distance too) some reason the pics not showing in the quote.

 

The days ahead look interesting, not really certain but many places could get some big thunderstorms. The SE/EA/C-SOUTH maybe just maybe an MCS storm at the weekend. Time scales change at when we might import/generate storms, so stay tuned!!

Edited July 24, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[The PIT]

Well have to hope for the unexpected today. All eyes on Saturday but thats looking too far south and east for me.

[Richard Taylor]

Thunder & lightning now here periodically since at least 5am-ish.

[Supacell]

Well have to hope for the unexpected today. All eyes on Saturday but thats looking too far south and east for me.

 

On the latest runs its looking too far south and east for most of us. Maybe a Kent clipper?

[Flipflop]

Good morning, what a night! i didn't get in till gone 2am this morning as i decided to head to the coast (Easington)

to capture some lightning and wohooooooo what a show and i did nab some pictures...  ill post my efforts up in a bit..............need coffee first.

 

[Coast]

ESTOFEX only highlighting Ireland in our area for today:

 

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 24 Jul 2013 06:00 to Thu 25 Jul 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 24 Jul 2013 06:40

Forecaster: PUCIK

 

SYNOPSIS

 

At mid and upper troposphere, synoptic-scale pattern will feature one broad cyclonic vortex over the Eastern Atlantic and another one over Western Russia, its trough stretching towards Turkey. In between of these two vortices, an ill-defined ridge will cover parts of Central Europe and Western Scandinavia. Most of Europe will remain under rather weak steering flow, only between 10-15 m/s at 500 hPa. Closer to the surface, weakening frontal system will move from France towards Germany and further eastwards. With broad and shallow low pressure centers over the Atlantic and Russia, front itself will move in a very weak pressure field, featuring some mesoscale lows.

 

Generally speaking, no pronounced severe weather activity is forecast because of the lack of sufficient CAPE / strong deep layer wind shear overlap. Nevertheless, there are a few areas that deserve closer inspection and those are detailed below.

 

DISCUSSION

 

... Ireland ...

 

Ahead of the short-wave trough rotating around the main cyclonic vortex, warm air advection regime will establish over the region. With rather cool mid-level temperatures it seems that at least marginal CAPE build up is plausible. Weak CAPE might be compensated by quite strong forcing. Enhanced low level shear (locally over 10 m/s in the 0-1 km layer) and SREH is simulated by models in response to the WAA. However, deep layer shear will stay marginal at best, decreasing potential for supercellular convection. All in all, situation looks to be on the low-end Level 1 scale with some stronger multicells possibly capable of isolated severe wind gusts and/or weak tornado.

 

 

 

[Coast]

UKASF say:

 

 

 

Synopsis:

 

Moisture plume continues to exit to the North Sea through the first half of the forecast period, but continuing to destabilise due to the presence of a shortwave trough and surface cold front. A rather slack pattern then dominates across the British Isles until an intense upper trough approaches Ireland through the day, and western Britain overnight.

Discussion:

 

... E + NE ENGLAND, SE, E + N SCOTLAND ...

 

Moisture plume will continue to destablise with scattered thunderstorms possible between 00z-09z, primarily within the SLGT areas. Existing surface-based and elevated thunderstorms will continue to migrate northeastwards, while further development is possible across parts of East Anglia through the early morning hours, but generally exiting into the North Sea towards dawn and thereafter. 

 

 

... SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, N WALES ...

 

Cooling aloft coupled with diurnal heating will result in 500-700 J/kg CAPE. A shortwave trough will allow scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening. Faster storm motion compared to recent days, despite PWAT values >25mm, should limit the risk of local flooding somewhat, with perhaps some stronger cores producing some small hail.

 

 

... IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND ... 

 

A shortwave trough will migrate northeastwards across the area from late morning over Munster through until late evening over Ulster. Cooling mid levels accompanying a sharpening upper trough coupled with diurnal heating will result in 800+ J/kg CAPE. As a result, an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected, spreading from southwest to northeast through the afternoon and evening, particularly across western parts of Ireland and many parts of Northern Ireland. Up to 30kts DLS and LLS will allow cells to become organised, into linear features at times, and with increasingly backed surface winds and rather low LCLs a few funnels or weak tornadoes are possible. Several models suggest the formation of a slow-moving N-S line of showers/storms, or perhaps QLCS, across western parts of Ireland through the evening hours. PWAT values >30mm with frequent showers/storms moving over similar areas may result with some local flash flooding. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is also possible in any stronger cores. 

 

 

... S WALES, SW ENGLAND ...

 

Main period of interest will be from 18z onwards as a developing frontal system develops beneath a sharpening upper trough and an approaching/strengthening jet left exit. An area of showery rain with embedded elevated thunderstorms will gradually migrate northeastwards across these areas, although with a tendency to lose lightning activity as it moves further inland through the evening. Backed surface winds may allow an isolated funnel or weak tornado to form given rather low LCLs.

 

 

 

[Coast]

GFS showing some potential approaching the SW and Wales overnight:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lots of messy convective precipitation:

 

 

and steepening lapse rates in that area:

 

 

Nice moisture flow:

 

[Flipflop]

Easington, UK 24 7 2013 I decided to head to the coast (Easington) to capture some lightning, here is what i got.

 

Shame it was raining so all these are handheld or i would've used my tripod..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2013 by Raptor Raw

[JRMcLeod]

Can finally come out of the NSC.  First storm was at 2am with torrential rain, then at 5am with torrential rain then at 6am (best one, with pink lightning) then again at 730am.  All in all a good early morning wake up call.

 

Looks like more potential today, it feels warmer and more humid, lets hope the sun breaks out and helps it all along...here's hoping!

[Cloud 10]

Finally had a torrential downpour here in the early hours of the morning,although no thunder.

 

Great pics Raptor Raw. 

[cheese]

Done an animation of the Midlands storms using radar data from weatheronline.co.uk , here it shows the storms bloom over Nottingham, impressive rain rates.

Times of the frames are 1630-1940hrs

Fast speed:

1630-1940hrs - Radar Animation Midlands Storms - 23-7-2013 - UK - ESS-animations (weatheronline radar data) - fast speed.gif

Slow speed:

1630-1940hrs - Radar Animation Midlands Storms - 23-7-2013 - UK - ESS-animations (weatheronline radar data) - slow speed.gif

Good animation - it shows how that Notts cell was actually part of another cell that split into two, with that particular cell developing into an almighty beast, and the other one simply fading away into nothingness.

[Bobby]

Perhaps another desperate roll of a dice for something thundery tonight for us in the generally stormless SW edge

 

 

Met Office : Rain and hill fog will spread northeastwards across Wales through the night turning heavy and perhaps thundery at times, particularly in western areas

 

Some shear and high vorticity.

[GeordieKermit]

Great photos Raptor Raw.    I love the last one in your set

 

 

 

.

[Flipflop]

Thank you Cloud10, Geordiekermit 

[BrickFielder]

  Some disagreement in the models today again. First thing to notice is the mid level lapse rates which look to be around 24 C which would normally not be considered enough for storm initiation. Other factors include the low level convergence across parts of the north of England which could be a focus for storms. Next up is a low level trough forecast by NMM to sweep across the north of the UK. At upper levels some divergence is forecast for parts of the UK. The problem is that these charts have a low confidence at the moment.  GFS forecast SkewT's for London show preety much no instability (Cape), but there is a chance that a temperature of 23C and Dewpoint of 12C might be on the low side. In other words the risk of storms is there, mainly for parts of the north of the UK, but I would not rule out a storm virtually anywhere. So perhaps a 25% risk in the north, 10% elsewhere particularly in the west or near large cities and a 80% chance over Ireland.

 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2013 by BrickFielder

[boogercj]

Woohoo, so it could be our turn down in the SW tonight! Fingers crossed.

Edited July 24, 2013 by boogercj

[Cloudwatcher]

Seeing more convective type activity here than at any point in the last week! feeling hot and humid too in the sunshine.

 

[Cloudwatcher]

 

Know we aren't down for any action today but there's a "feel" in the air. Still got good surface heating here.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

20130724-IMG_6565.jpg20130724-IMG_6563.jpg

 

Know we aren't down for any action today but there's a "feel" in the air. Still got good surface heating here.

 

I have the same thing here. Convection starting to bubble away.

[Cloudwatcher]

I have the same thing here. Convection starting to bubble away.

It's the most interesting thing we've witnessed this week haha! Hence the pics! :-)