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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 27/7/13 13z------>

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
    • Location: Sunderland
    Posted

    Okerly dokerly, a shiny new thread to fill with your supercell reports and weather related musings and banter, so please carry on here Posted Image

     

    old thread here --------------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77339-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/

     

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    Anvils in the Sky Enthusiast

    Anvils in the Sky

    Posted
  • Location: North Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, winter snow.
    • Location: North Kent
    Posted

    Met Office home page STILL showing 21° and light rain for my location today. Currently a sunny 25.7°!

     

    Well, the Caen / Cherbourg / Le Havre storm has definitely deviated off its north-easterly track. So should we be watching the stuff brewing over the Nantes area instead?

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    nanu Enthusiast

    nanu

    Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
    • Location: SE,London (Catford)
    Posted

    looks like ill only get rain as the middle part of the cell is dying and isnt electrified Posted Image

    prob pep up again as soon as it hits the warm land

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    <<Ryan>> Enthusiast

    <<Ryan>>

    Posted
  • Location: Tenterden(TN30) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
    • Location: Tenterden(TN30) Kent
    Posted

    Camping near deal for a week. Lots of flashes and deep rumbles late last night. About 4:15 we were woken by shotgun thunder and torrential rain. Got slightly wet - left the air vents open. Laid listening to the rain and deep rumbles in the distance. About 4:45 a huge fork of lightning shot above our heads followed by an instant crackle of lightning. Once the rain had calmed I took a look outside. The back end of the storm had a a stunning structure, shame I couldn't get a picture at the time. Watching it move away I saw a couple of pinky/purple cg strikes. Until about half 8/9 we continued to have heavy bursts of rain and deep rumbles of thunder in the distance. The cloud has cleared since and it's too hot and close. Hoping for more of the same later today :-)

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    Methuselah Maestro

    Methuselah

    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
    • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Posted

    Sun now just visible through the mist, 23C...

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    VillagePlank Rising Star

    VillagePlank

    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    • Location: Rochester, Kent
    Posted

    looks like ill only get rain as the middle part of the cell is dying and isnt electrified Posted Image

     

    Surface temps of the sea (ie the PBL) isn't strong enough to feed the storms so it will try to die as it crosses the channel. The deepening low, and landfall at the warmest part of the day means that once it lands it can continue to feed.

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    Anvils in the Sky Enthusiast

    Anvils in the Sky

    Posted
  • Location: North Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, winter snow.
    • Location: North Kent
    Posted

    Camping near deal for a week. Lots of flashes and deep rumbles late last night. About 4:15 we were woken by shotgun thunder and torrential rain. Got slightly wet - left the air vents open. Laid listening to the rain and deep rumbles in the distance. About 4:45 a huge fork of lightning shot above our heads followed by an instant crackle of lightning. Once the rain had calmed I took a look outside. The back end of the storm had a a stunning structure, shame I couldn't get a picture at the time. Watching it move away I saw a couple of pinky/purple cg strikes. Until about half 8/9 we continued to have heavy bursts of rain and deep rumbles of thunder in the distance. The cloud has cleared since and it's too hot and close. Hoping for more of the same later today :-)

    Sounds fun - for a storm lover like me, anyway! And what you caught was just the very edge of the huge France/Benelux cell. Wonder what it was like right in the centre of it?

     

    Temperature going up every time I look. Now 26.1°. Met Office, give them their due, have now updated their forecast for today for my location. Gone is the 'light rain, 21°' - to be replaced by 'light rain, 23°'!

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    Anvils in the Sky Enthusiast

    Anvils in the Sky

    Posted
  • Location: North Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, winter snow.
    • Location: North Kent
    Posted

    Purple is a forecast of extreme weather,

     

    Posted Imageprevision-orages-tornades-keraunos.png

     

    (just 20 odd miles from us)

     

    They're going for odds on chances of a tornado with a 20% chance of a tornado > F2

    Wow. Could be fun for those on P&O from Dover to Calais later!

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    VillagePlank Rising Star

    VillagePlank

    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    • Location: Rochester, Kent
    Posted

    Purple is a forecast of extreme weather,

     

    Posted Imageprevision-orages-tornades-keraunos.png

     

    (just 20 odd miles from us)

     

    They're going for odds on chances of a tornado with a 20% chance of a tornado > F2

     

     

    Translation ....

     

     

     

    ON THE FAR NORTH ...

    RISK 4/4

    STRUCTURES: MULTI SUP

    Convective maximum exposure level is issued to the end of the afternoon, evening and early night, due to the risk of tornado rated higher than 50%, with potential> 20% of tornado intensity (> EF2 ). The latest models suggest otherwise consider a local risk downbursts may locally exceed 150 km / h. All therefore warrants special attention and the issuance of a convective risk level 4/4. This severe storm potential is related to traffic late in the day on the affected area, a prefrontal baroclinic wave associated with the digging of a mobile meso-depression. Vertical profiles will then be highly unstable and intensely sheared, as close to the ground at depth.

    The most severe thunderstorm activity is expected between local and local 17h 01h the next night. During this period, such supercell storms may occur initially, with significant risk of large hail (hail may locally exceed 5 cm in diameter) and high potential for the formation of tornadoes. These first storm triggers should then be followed by a stormy linear axis to curved trend that will sweep the target area from west to east. In its path, the tornado may remain present and is associated with winds exceeding 120 km / h with isolated potential above 150 km / h gusts. Intense rains occasionally may occur, with blades of water> 50 mm in short time.

    Note that uncertainty remains regarding the optimal warming of the lower layers in the presence of a significant cloud cover over the Nord - Pas de Calais in the early afternoon. Convective potential could find diminished. However, the likelihood of severe events is considered serious enough to raise concerns of local extremes.

     

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    loopydreamer Contributor

    loopydreamer

    Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
    • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
    Posted

    It seemed to be weakening slightly but now it's starting to intensify as it draws closer to land and i can't see that NOT hitting North Kent.

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    Ice Day Veteran

    Ice Day

    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
    • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    Posted

    Well this heat certainly wasn't forecasted for here.  Currently 27.6c and feeling extremely hot in the sun.  I would imagine that this heat will pep up the storm as it makes land?

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    VillagePlank Rising Star

    VillagePlank

    Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
    • Location: Rochester, Kent
    Posted

    Just remember, guys, our time will be this evening and overnight (ie it will be dark and frequent lightning will be much much better to watch!) Anything before that is just hor's d'doevres! (well, it's coming from France!!!)

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    Jax Veteran

    Jax

    Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
    • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
    Posted

    Afternoon all

     

    Hope you are all well, tis another warm and humid day here, washing was out all night and was still not dry this morning.

     

    29.2oC in the shed Posted Image

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    Anvils in the Sky Enthusiast

    Anvils in the Sky

    Posted
  • Location: North Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Summer storms, winter snow.
    • Location: North Kent
    Posted

    The anticipation and not knowing is killing me already! But, yes, if I had to choose between an afternoon or a night-time storm.......the latter would win hands down.

     

    This latest spell of potentially thundery weather is but only in its infancy surely?

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    Captain Shortwave Maestro

    Captain Shortwave

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
    • Location: Peterborough
    Posted

    28C in London and the South East, simply dreadful forecasting, most of the precipitation is aiming square at the South West with one cell moving this way.

    Sun is trying to come out here but the weather here today has just been poor. 

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    LJS22 Apprentice

    LJS22

    Posted
  • Location: Strood , Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summers & Mild Winters
    • Location: Strood , Kent
    Posted

    The cell thats just hit the south coast is just the start i should imagine.  Hope it gains some more intensity now it's over land again.  Come on The Downs.  Do your work

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    stun12 Enthusiast

    stun12

    Posted
  • Location: Staplecross, East Sussex / Kent borders. 100m ASL.
    • Location: Staplecross, East Sussex / Kent borders. 100m ASL.
    Posted

    It seemed to be weakening slightly but now it's starting to intensify as it draws closer to land and i can't see that NOT hitting North Kent.

     

    Yes, it looks like a heavier red part of the blob should be hitting Eastbourne shortly, having faded to a rather disappointing yellowy-green. Sun has gone here now and breeze picking up noticeably. 24.3C and 66% humidity.

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    nanu Enthusiast

    nanu

    Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
    • Location: SE,London (Catford)
    Posted

    The cell thats just hit the south coast is just the start i should imagine.  Hope it gains some more intensity now it's over land again.  Come on The Downs.  Do your work

    it usually does the trick the old downs.. but will most prob gain intensity once it starts drawing in the heat of london

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