South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 27/7/13 13z------>

[A.J]

Okerly dokerly, a shiny new thread to fill with your supercell reports and weather related musings and banter, so please carry on here

 

old thread here --------------> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77339-south-east-east-anglia-regional-discussion-23rd-july-2013-onwards/

 

[nanu]

as i said before.. watch the sun soakers scatter live on webcam.. if the storm doesnt break up and die, which will be a pity!!  http://www.earthcam.com/world/uk/bognorregis/

[Anvils in the Sky]

Met Office home page STILL showing 21° and light rain for my location today. Currently a sunny 25.7°!

 

Well, the Caen / Cherbourg / Le Havre storm has definitely deviated off its north-easterly track. So should we be watching the stuff brewing over the Nantes area instead?

[VillagePlank]

First round of storms now left France and heading for Kent, the back edge is electrified,

 

 

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Kent Snow]

For Canterbury the METO is showing 21C. Its currently 25C and only cirrus in the sky!

Edited July 27, 2013 by Kent Snow

[Tom Jarvis]

looks like ill only get rain as the middle part of the cell is dying and isnt electrified

[nanu]

looks like ill only get rain as the middle part of the cell is dying and isnt electrified

prob pep up again as soon as it hits the warm land

[<<Ryan>>]

Camping near deal for a week. Lots of flashes and deep rumbles late last night. About 4:15 we were woken by shotgun thunder and torrential rain. Got slightly wet - left the air vents open. Laid listening to the rain and deep rumbles in the distance. About 4:45 a huge fork of lightning shot above our heads followed by an instant crackle of lightning. Once the rain had calmed I took a look outside. The back end of the storm had a a stunning structure, shame I couldn't get a picture at the time. Watching it move away I saw a couple of pinky/purple cg strikes. Until about half 8/9 we continued to have heavy bursts of rain and deep rumbles of thunder in the distance. The cloud has cleared since and it's too hot and close. Hoping for more of the same later today :-)

[Methuselah]

Sun now just visible through the mist, 23C...

[VillagePlank]

looks like ill only get rain as the middle part of the cell is dying and isnt electrified

 

Surface temps of the sea (ie the PBL) isn't strong enough to feed the storms so it will try to die as it crosses the channel. The deepening low, and landfall at the warmest part of the day means that once it lands it can continue to feed.

[VillagePlank]

Purple is a forecast of extreme weather,

 

 

(just 20 odd miles from us)

 

They're going for odds on chances of a tornado with a 20% chance of a tornado > F2

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Anvils in the Sky]

Camping near deal for a week. Lots of flashes and deep rumbles late last night. About 4:15 we were woken by shotgun thunder and torrential rain. Got slightly wet - left the air vents open. Laid listening to the rain and deep rumbles in the distance. About 4:45 a huge fork of lightning shot above our heads followed by an instant crackle of lightning. Once the rain had calmed I took a look outside. The back end of the storm had a a stunning structure, shame I couldn't get a picture at the time. Watching it move away I saw a couple of pinky/purple cg strikes. Until about half 8/9 we continued to have heavy bursts of rain and deep rumbles of thunder in the distance. The cloud has cleared since and it's too hot and close. Hoping for more of the same later today :-)

Sounds fun - for a storm lover like me, anyway! And what you caught was just the very edge of the huge France/Benelux cell. Wonder what it was like right in the centre of it?

 

Temperature going up every time I look. Now 26.1°. Met Office, give them their due, have now updated their forecast for today for my location. Gone is the 'light rain, 21°' - to be replaced by 'light rain, 23°'!

[Anvils in the Sky]

Purple is a forecast of extreme weather,

 

prevision-orages-tornades-keraunos.png

 

(just 20 odd miles from us)

 

They're going for odds on chances of a tornado with a 20% chance of a tornado > F2

Wow. Could be fun for those on P&O from Dover to Calais later!

[VillagePlank]

Purple is a forecast of extreme weather,

 

prevision-orages-tornades-keraunos.png

 

(just 20 odd miles from us)

 

They're going for odds on chances of a tornado with a 20% chance of a tornado > F2

 

 

Translation ....

 

 

 

ON THE FAR NORTH ...

RISK 4/4

STRUCTURES: MULTI SUP

Convective maximum exposure level is issued to the end of the afternoon, evening and early night, due to the risk of tornado rated higher than 50%, with potential> 20% of tornado intensity (> EF2 ). The latest models suggest otherwise consider a local risk downbursts may locally exceed 150 km / h. All therefore warrants special attention and the issuance of a convective risk level 4/4. This severe storm potential is related to traffic late in the day on the affected area, a prefrontal baroclinic wave associated with the digging of a mobile meso-depression. Vertical profiles will then be highly unstable and intensely sheared, as close to the ground at depth.

The most severe thunderstorm activity is expected between local and local 17h 01h the next night. During this period, such supercell storms may occur initially, with significant risk of large hail (hail may locally exceed 5 cm in diameter) and high potential for the formation of tornadoes. These first storm triggers should then be followed by a stormy linear axis to curved trend that will sweep the target area from west to east. In its path, the tornado may remain present and is associated with winds exceeding 120 km / h with isolated potential above 150 km / h gusts. Intense rains occasionally may occur, with blades of water> 50 mm in short time.

Note that uncertainty remains regarding the optimal warming of the lower layers in the presence of a significant cloud cover over the Nord - Pas de Calais in the early afternoon. Convective potential could find diminished. However, the likelihood of severe events is considered serious enough to raise concerns of local extremes.

 

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[loopydreamer]

It seemed to be weakening slightly but now it's starting to intensify as it draws closer to land and i can't see that NOT hitting North Kent.

[Ice Day]

Well this heat certainly wasn't forecasted for here.  Currently 27.6c and feeling extremely hot in the sun.  I would imagine that this heat will pep up the storm as it makes land?

[VillagePlank]

Just remember, guys, our time will be this evening and overnight (ie it will be dark and frequent lightning will be much much better to watch!) Anything before that is just hor's d'doevres! (well, it's coming from France!!!)

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Tom Jarvis]

channel is killing the cells that are forming behind the cell

[Jax]

Afternoon all

 

Hope you are all well, tis another warm and humid day here, washing was out all night and was still not dry this morning.

 

29.2oC in the shed

[Anvils in the Sky]

The anticipation and not knowing is killing me already! But, yes, if I had to choose between an afternoon or a night-time storm.......the latter would win hands down.

 

This latest spell of potentially thundery weather is but only in its infancy surely?

[Captain Shortwave]

28C in London and the South East, simply dreadful forecasting, most of the precipitation is aiming square at the South West with one cell moving this way.

Sun is trying to come out here but the weather here today has just been poor. 

[VillagePlank]

In case you missed it, here's my forecast - the SE features - all for after 18z,

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77377-convective-storm-discussion-27th-july-2013/?p=2752940

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[LJS22]

The cell thats just hit the south coast is just the start i should imagine.  Hope it gains some more intensity now it's over land again.  Come on The Downs.  Do your work

[stun12]

It seemed to be weakening slightly but now it's starting to intensify as it draws closer to land and i can't see that NOT hitting North Kent.

 

Yes, it looks like a heavier red part of the blob should be hitting Eastbourne shortly, having faded to a rather disappointing yellowy-green. Sun has gone here now and breeze picking up noticeably. 24.3C and 66% humidity.

[nanu]

The cell thats just hit the south coast is just the start i should imagine.  Hope it gains some more intensity now it's over land again.  Come on The Downs.  Do your work

it usually does the trick the old downs.. but will most prob gain intensity once it starts drawing in the heat of london