South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 27/7/13 13z------>

[10 Days Away]

That stuff over Nantes has loads of white echoes and is moving into N. France .... Kent/Sussex bound? EDIT. Moving NNE so more like Sussex than Kent.

[Methuselah]

Forecasting by the beeb has been poor - Peter Gibbs was rabbiting on how this week temperatures have been on the decline - really!?! not in my part of the world they haven't mate, maxes this week here have been between 27.3c (our hottest day this year) and 25.1c whilst previous weeks have seen maxes averaging around 21-24c due to the on shore breeze that we have largely been experiencing.

As for today well let's just say it's not one of the beeb's/METO's greatest forecasts, temps way way out. 25.2c here currently.

I agree mate - so far, this week, temps have risen? And so has the humidity. And I don't criticize the Met!

[VillagePlank]

That stuff over Nantes has loads of white echoes and is moving into N. France .... Kent/Sussex bound? EDIT. Moving NNE so more like Sussex than Kent.

 

If it moves NNE then it will die as it will wander into low theta-e's (no fuel) and simply be rain. Non-supercells will likely follow the 500hPa streams, so expect a bend to the east over the channel,

 

 

Supercells veer from the mean wind vector depending on their rotation.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Captain Shortwave]

I agree mate - so far, this week, temps have risen? And so has the humidity. And I don't criticize the Met!

They certainly didn't forecast the persistent mist and low cloud here 

[10 Days Away]

If it moves NNE then it will die as it will wander into low theta-e's (no fuel) and simply be rain. Non-supercells will likely follow the 500hPa streams, so expect a bend to the east over the channel,

 

streams.gif

 

Supercells veer from the mean wind vector depending on their rotation.

Excellent , thanks for the education ! 

[pinball wizard]

Forecasting by the beeb has been poor - Peter Gibbs was rabbiting on how this week temperatures have been on the decline - really!?! not in my part of the world they haven't mate, maxes this week here have been between 27.3c (our hottest day this year) and 25.1c whilst previous weeks have seen maxes averaging around 21-24c due to the on shore breeze that we have largely been experiencing.

As for today well let's just say it's not one of the beeb's/METO's greatest forecasts, temps way way out. 25.2c here currently.

 

Too true! Its 26.5c, dry and bright here in Bury, if yesterday's forecast was right then it would be about 21c with rain. I find it fascinating that with all their knowledge and computers that there are so many set ups that they still can not accurately model and subsequently forecast, must do their heads in as much as ours!

[Methuselah]

They certainly didn't forecast the persistent mist and low cloud here 

Indeed not...But it's all gone now? 

[Jax]

Old-fashioned way of doing it, I know, but the Medium Wave is starting to provide some crackles.

Sky darkening to my south and south-west now.

I used to listen to the radio for storms, but got excited thinking a storm was coming only to apprently get ferics from a storm on "oldcrisppacket7" 48 zillion miles away before the earth was as it is.

[VillagePlank]

Excellent , thanks ...

 

You want to be South and East of the 50degC line for thunderstorms, I reckon

 

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[stun12]

Well, the first one was a bit disappointing, since I was under a red bit. A few rumbles of thunder and about 5 minutes of medium intensity rain. Sun's out again though, so not all bad. Seems to be another small blob heading this way, followed by the much larger stuff which is splitting in two. One half heading into Dorset and the other for the SE corner. Some quite vicious rainfall in that, with a load of electrical activity on its eastern edge (no doubt where it interacts with the warmed land mass), though it may lose some strength over the still coolish channel.

[Methuselah]

Maybe best to expect zilch! 

[VillagePlank]

Maybe best to expect zilch! 

 

Yep - as with all storms, they can be hit and miss. I still favour most of Kent - and Harry, watch out for rapidly developing non-sferic cells giving rise to hail this evening - some of East Sussex and later Essex and East Anglia though.

 

The main thing is - Kent has the fuel; for sure you can have a fire with a free newspaper, but when you've got logs and petrol ......

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Anvils in the Sky]

This is unbelievable. It has been quiet here all day. So I go into the back garden to listen out for thunder as the sky is getting darker and darker. And what happens? One side of me starts hammering, the other side's two kids decide to go in the paddling pool and start screaming, a few doors up starts mowing his lawn, and the chap over the back starts sawing!!!

And to add insult to injury, planes are suddenly flying low right over me!! How am I supposed to listen out for thunder?!

[Tom Jarvis]

typical london is about to get hammered with torrental rain whilst i just have a small shower. there seems to be an anty storm device in my area lol

[tinybill]

it  will be   interesting  seeing were that pulse goes which is east  of   cherborg  goes  that  lot could  be  heading  to the south east  later  should be  interesting  later!!

Edited July 27, 2013 by tinybill

[Jax]

This is unbelievable. It has been quiet here all day. So I go into the back garden to listen out for thunder as the sky is getting darker and darker. And what happens? One side of me starts hammering, the other side's two kids decide to go in the paddling pool and start screaming, a few doors up starts mowing his lawn, and the chap over the back starts sawing!!!

And to add insult to injury, planes are suddenly flying low right over me!! How am I supposed to listen out for thunder?!

eh?

[loopydreamer]

Well It's raining

Now it's really raiing . . .

[stun12]

it  will be   interesting  seeing were that pulse goes which is east  of   cherborg  goes  that  lot could  be  heading  to the south east  later  should be  interesting  later!!

Only the one chance, by the looks of it, as the Bay of Biscay has stopped producing the goodies. 

[Anvils in the Sky]

Well It's raining

Now it's really raiing . . .

Massive drops too.

[nanu]

Big flash just south east of me..long boom of thunder, i said it would kick off, the heat of london works wonders some of the time

[Anvils in the Sky]

eh?

Don't worry - the rain has caused all the noisemakers to rush indoors!

[loopydreamer]

THUNDER!!!!

[Jax]

still summer here

[Anvils in the Sky]

Thunder over Rainham.

Any other Medway peeps catching it?

[tinybill]

still 28.4  here  and  watching  the  radar  things  should  go bang here  in a  couple  of  hours!!