South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 27/7/13 13z------>

[VillagePlank]

The good stuff - see Estofex level3 - hasn't even occured yet!

 

This stuff coming out of France, if it, say, lands somewhere east of the Isle of Wight, but west of Hastings, is going to hit a wall of cool dry air and die quickly into rain with a few thunderstorms embedded; nothing like what we might be expecting tonight when the low pressure destabilises our air, the air over the Northern France, and creates a whole new batch.

 

Well, that's the theory, anyway!

[anything-but]

So,is that lot coming over NW currently "the" lot we`re been told to expect,or is there yet more ganging up behind it?

 

 

....Think the above post answered my question,lol.

Edited July 27, 2013 by anything-but

[VillagePlank]

Kent's chances were always this evening (post 18z) MetO 15z update thinks zero rain until 19z tonight.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[chionomaniac]

Batten down the hatches. It's coming!

[legrandefromage]

sweaty, a 3 t-shirt type of day

[Snowangel-MK]

Good afternoon and greetings from Winterton on Sea where despite some sea fog it's quite pleasant - a nice walk over the dunes and along the beach has stretched legs after the journey -

Having a bit of chill out time before going to the pub tonight - not sure we will see any storm action here tonight as I've not had the Internet connection to keep up with the forecasts !

[Isolated Frost]

Not posted much, but when you see this on the HR-EC, you take notice

Hi-res screengrab for 7pm tonight, plethora of activity and purples galore. Enjoy!

[Anvils in the Sky]

One and only rumble of thunder @ 15.58, light rain two minutes later which continues to fall even under blue skies and hot sun - 26C.

Just spotted your location. What a fantastic name!

[PLANET THANET]

It was a bit nouvelle cuisine, to be honest. Ordered a prawn cocktail and got a lettuce leaf with a shrimp on it.

to be honest at this stage i would even have a takeaway

[Tom Jarvis]

Not posted much, but when you see this on the HR-EC, you take notice

Hi-res screengrab for 7pm tonight, plethora of activity and purples galore. Enjoy!

bit more to the west lol and that woyld be perfect

[Isolated Frost]

bit more to the west lol and that woyld be perfect

The 5pm and 6pm pics look more positive for western parts of the region.

[LJS22]

Not posted much, but when you see this on the HR-EC, you take notice

Hi-res screengrab for 7pm tonight, plethora of activity and purples galore. Enjoy!

 

Blimey that purple strip is right over me ! 

[Mini tiger]

Well the first wave has fizzled out as it crossed Surrey.  Ocercast skies aloft now. Very flat looking. No AuCs or for that matter cumulus of any description..

[Captain Shortwave]

Not posted much, but when you see this on the HR-EC, you take notice

Hi-res screengrab for 7pm tonight, plethora of activity and purples galore. Enjoy!

Triangular shaped dry patch, heh  expected 

[10 Days Away]

Think I'll head to Camber about 7. If nothing develops it's still a lovely place to be !

[pinball wizard]

Good to see someone else from Ipswich! Fingers are crossed.

 

You wont be saying that after a while 

[Froze were the Days]

Well that line of 'cloud' which has passed through was pathetic - that brought lightening on the south coast? not even a rain drop here...

[chilly milly]

Plenty of cloud bubbling up in Stevenage at the moment

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stun12]

Main bit according to Meteox:

 

 

[VillagePlank]

Right peeps, a quick 12z update: the normal technical charts aren't available yet, so this will have to do.

 

Observe the low pressure in the Bay of Biscay at 12z, watch it move over the SE England (slightly more west than the 6z).

 

In my (unexpert) view I think you need to be in or near the low, and within the 50degC theta-e contour. Here you go -should help with timings, too.

 

 

Thunderstorms that leave France and land outside of the 50degC theta-e contour are likely to cease to be electrifimicated ^TM and simply become rain where orographic lift might pep one or three to thundery rain.

 

You'll also note the low pressure hasn't even reached the channel yet - and that's the thing that's forecast to destabilise the atmosphere.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Wivenswold]

That line of cloud was not the main event. The heavy stuff was always forecast for this evening. 

[Chloe]

Rain!

[cloudsabove]

This is what just passed a short while ago, showed up on radar but no rain fell where I was, I could see it almost hanging from the base of the cloud and probably it didn't really reach the ground. Apologies for dark pics but wanted to up contrast to highlight the mammatus cloud. The other pic was an attractive swirl of wispy cloud. Waiting for the bigger stuff!

[k66yla]

I think we've seen the last of the sun here today, its clouded over rapidly and the wind has picked up.

[Wivenswold]

This is what just passed a short while ago, showed up on radar but no rain fell where I was, I could see it almost hanging from the base of the cloud and probably it didn't really reach the ground. Apologies for dark pics but wanted to up contrast to highlight the mammatus cloud. The other pic was an attractive swirl of wispy cloud. Waiting for the bigger stuff!

I'm no expert but that cloud looks like it's re-energising, as it wasn't anywhere near as dark when it went over North Essex. Could make a homegrown storm.