Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Lincstim]

Are we any closer to knowing the outcome of this weekends weather?

Just briefly gone through many online 7 day forecasts and most are showing different to each other. Is it going to rain or is it going to be mainly dry and warm?

Myself and another 899 people in scunny who are attending the PARTY IN THE PINES festival are waiting with anticipation!!!!

Edited July 30, 2013 by Lincstim

[Gordon Webb]

met office has issued a heat health alert

 

 

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 0844 on Tue 30 Jul 2013

 

There is a 60 % probability of heatwave conditions between 1200 on Thursday and 1800 on Friday in parts of England.

Temperatures are expected to peak in some southern and eastern areas on Thursday, with a humid feel and a warm and muggy night on Thursday night. High temperatures are likely to continue on Friday in some eastern parts of England.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

 

This is really only a S/SE event with all other areas getting a 30% chance so nothing to worry about for most and for most be gone by friday

[shedhead]

Are we any closer to knowing the outcome of this weekends weather?Just briefly gone through many online 7 day forecasts and most are showing different to each other. Is it going to rain or is it going to be mainly dry and warm?Myself and another 899 people in scunny who are attending the PARTY IN THE PINES festival are waiting with anticipation!!!!

No sure there is a great deal of inter model disagreement regarding the weekend Tim, tho detail in any one locations remains rather elusive. At this stage both GFS and UKMO suggest it will be significantly cooler and fresher than Thu/Fri, with some good spells of sunshine and just one or two fairly well scattered showers in a moderate SW breeze. All in all pretty nice, but things of course can and probably will change, so worth keeping in touch on here.

[shedhead]

met office has issued a heat health alert

 

 

Current watch level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 0844 on Tue 30 Jul 2013

 

There is a 60 % probability of heatwave conditions between 1200 on Thursday and 1800 on Friday in parts of England.

Temperatures are expected to peak in some southern and eastern areas on Thursday, with a humid feel and a warm and muggy night on Thursday night. High temperatures are likely to continue on Friday in some eastern parts of England.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

 

This is really only a S/SE event with all other areas getting a 30% chance so nothing to worry about for most and for most be gone by friday

Indeed, the speed this is travelling a 'heat tsunami' might be rather more appropriate... Next week holds the prospect of more widespread heat though, this time perhaps lasting a few days across the south in particular, with the GFS ensembles posted above by SS showing some pretty decent agreement on a potentially significant warm up. 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Are we any closer to knowing the outcome of this weekends weather?Just briefly gone through many online 7 day forecasts and most are showing different to each other. Is it going to rain or is it going to be mainly dry and warm?Myself and another 899 people in scunny who are attending the PARTY IN THE PINES festival are waiting with anticipation!!!!

At this range, noone can you give you a definitive answer.  However, from 4 days out, Friday is looking dry.

I would tell them to take a brolly and some suncream on the Saturday.  It could well be a mixture of sunshine and showers during Saturday afternoon. Possibly drier in the evening.  Highs in the low 20s.  That forecast could change so keep checking this page.

Edited July 30, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[shedhead]

At this range, noone can you give you a definitive answer.  However, from 4 days out I would tell them to take a brolly and some suncream.  It could well be a mixture of sunshine and showers during the afternoon. Possibly drier in the evening.  Highs in the low 20s.  That forecast could change so keep checking this page.

Very few if any weather forecasts can be described as definative, hence the word forecast(s).

[Frosty.]

Very interesting fax charts here, nice to see the 564 dam line chasing the active warm front northwards as it eventually reaches northern scotland, between the warm front and the cold front linking back to the west, it will be turning hot and sultry, it will actually be turning warmer and more humid across the south tomorrow but with misty low cloud and bits of drizzle although it should brighten up through tomorrow afternoon, however, at the same time, a band of heavy rain will be pushing north across northern england and eventually up into scotland.Thursday looks increasingly sunny and hot in the south, this hot and sunny weather pushing further and further north throughout thursday, temperatures up to 27-28c across northern england, nearer 29-30c for the midlands and 30-33c as high as 91 F for the southeast, friday looks very interesting with a cold front slowly pushing east, it makes quicker progress east across scotland but becomes very slow moving across england, as it bumps into the hot/sultry airmass. I expect severe thunderstorms to develop on friday across the southeast & east anglia but there could also be some storms further north as the cold front clears through, it looks like a wave forms along the front across the southeast on friday evening and overnight which causes the front to stall for a time and intensify as it mixes with the additional continental heat pumping up from the south, a risk of flooding in some parts of the southeast on friday night is possible with the intense thunderstorms, by saturday, the active cold front should have cleared out into the north sea and heading into the low countries taking the heat and high humidity away with it but the southeast will probably have the driest and sunniest weather on saturday and warm enough at 24-25 celsius, further to the north and west it looks breezier, cooler and more showery, the showery troughs lining up as bands of heavy rain but with sunny spells inbetween, a more settled spell should follow as pressure rises from the south later in the weekend and into the early part of next week.

Edited July 30, 2013 by Frosty039

[pandit-scholar]

The GFS chart is currently rolling out at the moment. Looks like the more extreme uppers will be gone as quickly as they came from the UK , most of France and the Low Countries.

Edited July 30, 2013 by pandit-scholar

[Bonjangle]

The GFS chart is currently rolling out at the moment. Looks like the more extreme uppers will be gone as quickly as they came from the UK , most of France and the Low Countries.

Don't like the look of that chart , bin it please lol

[pandit-scholar]

Don't like the look of that chart , bin it please lol:crazy:

Although high pressure seems to be rebuilding over the UK (won't go beyond the 05/08)

[TEITS]

So after a couple of days of temps around 30C at the end of the week. They drop to 25C at the weekend before increasing to 28C on Monday,

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

 

 

So far this summer is turning into a winter equivalent of a bitter NE,ly. What I mean by this is exciting weather.

[Scorcher]

Don't like the look of that chart , bin it please lol

 

That chart's not bad at all, I think it can be confusing when you look at Meteociel's charts at times as the colours used for the 850 hPa temps make it look colder. Many areas would be in the low to mid 20s if that came off.

[mushymanrob]

it matters not if thursday/friday are a hot blip, IF in the bigger picture something hot and more prolonged is likely to evolve...and theres a damn good chance of that happening!

[TonyH]

Amusing some belittling the brevity of the heat when it has been warm to hot for over 3 weeks!

[draztik]

it matters not if thursday/friday are a hot blip, IF in the bigger picture something hot and more prolonged is likely to evolve...and theres a damn good chance of that happening!

no sure thing, esp if you look at the ukmo at 144

[Captain Shortwave]

That chart's not bad at all, I think it can be confusing when you look at Meteociel's charts at times as the colours used for the 850 hPa temps make it look colder. Many areas would be in the low to mid 20s if that came off.

26C both Saturday and Sunday according to the GFS, pretty much perfect for me

30 degrees will be breached likely on Thursday and Friday with the potential for Tuesday onwards to repeat the same thing. Good stuff.

[TonyH]

The weathers actual warm still there, with heat potentially once more.

[shedhead]

So after a couple of days of temps around 30C at the end of the week. They drop to 25C at the weekend before increasing to 28C on Monday,

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15017.png

 

 

So far this summer is turning into a winter equivalent of a bitter NE,ly. What I mean by this is exciting weather.

Very true if you are sat in Cambridgeshire, or many other parts of E England.  However if you were sat in Belfast or Glasgow for instance your post would read 'So after a couple of days of temps around 20C at the end of the week, they drop to 18C at the weekend before increasing to 21C on Monday.

 

I hate the term IMBY, but things do look very different to many members who are not sat where you are.

Edited July 30, 2013 by shedhead

[Captain Shortwave]

Indeed, the speed this is travelling a 'heat tsunami' might be rather more appropriate... Next week holds the prospect of more widespread heat though, this time perhaps lasting a few days across the south in particular, with the GFS ensembles posted above by SS showing some pretty decent agreement on a potentially significant warm up. 

I wouldn't call it a heat tsunami, more a heat snap.

I vision a heat tsunami being one day of 100F heat followed by some of the biggest thunderstorms to ever grace the UK. We can only dream 

Back to the models, there looks like there is a risk of some home grown thunderstorms over northern England Thursday afternoon. 

Have to admit there is not much showing up for Friday. The issues with this type of breakdown is that you just end end with a band of high cloud from a weakened cold front and don't generate any storms along it.

Edited July 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

no sure thing, esp if you look at the ukmo at 144

 

aye, nowts certain, but only a few hours ago the atlantic was expected to dominate after thursdays mini heatwave, now all eyes are watching a potential bigger heatwave. the heats there, not far away, it wouldnt take much to bring it here and thats what the models are showing within a semi reliable timeframe.

 

as i see it, the outlooks set between average - hot, cant be bad can it!

[shedhead]

it matters not if thursday/friday are a hot blip, IF in the bigger picture something hot and more prolonged is likely to evolve...and theres a damn good chance of that happening!

I think both the UKMO and GFS 12 runs cast more that a smidgen of doubt on that Mushy. Stiil a lot more runs needed before the chance of another widespread hot spell imo, let alone a damn good chance. 

[Methuselah]

Well, when considering the fact that no-one can accurately predict the weather, of course there's doubt as to any long-term heatwave developing...But then, we all know that? Who knows! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Pretty good mean for next monday

For balance the ensemble gives a definite movement of low pressure from the South

 

Mean is pushing 16C again in the south east

 

People are commenting on the UKMO, yet again I must stress what I've said this morning about it's recent performance. It's eastward bias has put the GFS to shame 

Edited July 30, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

I think both the UKMO and GFS 12 runs cast more that a smidgen of doubt on that Mushy. Stiil a lot more runs needed before the chance of another widespread hot spell imo, let alone a damn good chance. 

 

yeah i know mate, i did say a 'damn good chance', not a certainty...

[Scorcher]

From the runs we have there appears to be a better chance of a hot spell developing than a cool, Atlantic dominated spell, that's for sure. There's nothing cool showing in the reliable timeframe. It's always very easy to say there are more runs needed- especially if the models are not showing what we want to see. The weather will do what it likes anyway, no amount of 'runs' will have any bearing on whether there is a hot spell at all!