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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Tropical Depression 07E has formed a little southeast of where Tropical Storm Flossie formed last week, about 700 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression has organised quite quickly over the last 24 hours, but only has winds of 25kts currently. Convection is fairly deep over the centre, and 07E's small size means it could intensify quickly. 07E is expected to take a similar path to Flossie, with a general west-northwest heading expected along the south side of strong ridging. This track gives 07E about 72hrs to strengthen before the depression reaches cooler water, inducing weakening.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    07E has strengthened quickly, and is now a 35kt tropical storm named Gil. The storm has developed tightly wrapped banding over the last couple hours, and maintains deep centralised convection. Gil could strengthen rapidly as I mentioned earlier.

    post-1820-0-59311400-1375218548_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil remains a compact but very well organised tropical storm. Winds are up to 50kts. Gil looks poised to become a hurricane very soon looking at satellite imagery.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil has strengthened rapidly and is now a 65kt, cat 1 hurricane. An eye is emerging from the central dense overcast, which is still flanked by tightly wrapped banding. NHC are forecasting a peak of 70kts but I feel this is too conservative given the favourable environment ahead and Gil's small size.

     

     

    post-1820-0-42825300-1375304300_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil putting on a show:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

     

    Forecasters say Hurricane Gil is strengthening in the Pacific, far off the southern tip of California.
     
    The National Hurricane Center in Miami says maximum sustained winds late Wednesday are 80 mph (129 kph). The center is about 985 miles (1585 kilometers) southwest of Mexico's Baja California peninsula, south of California. There are no coastal warnings or watches. It's moving at 12 mph (19 kph) and is expected to strengthen Thursday as it begins to head farther out to sea.

     

     

    http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/hurricane-gil-strengthens-pacific-19833421

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil strengthened to 70kts overnight but has stopped strengthening since. The eye is no longer visible, though the central dense overcast remains. It is a little puzzling why Gil hasn't strengthened any further as shear is low and waters are still warm. Gil still has the opportunity to strengthen a little more but time is running out before cooler waters and dry air impact Gil.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil peaked at 75kts, but, despite the favourable conditions, has since weakened instead of strengthening further. This was even puzzling to the NHC, with Lixion Avila admitting he was stumped as to why Gil has weakened to the current intensity of 60kts in a low shear, warm sea temperature environment. The eye has not come back from last night, and the central dense overcast has become disorganised. Gil continues westwards along the south side of strong ridging to the north which is building westwards. This means Gil is likely to continue moving westwards or even west-southwestwards over the coming days. Gil could temporarily restrengthen as shear remains low over the next 24 hours, but thereafter weakening should occur as shear rises. However, the restrengthening does depend on the behaviour of Gil, as it seems intent on weakening despite favourable conditions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil is being shorn apart. A small area of convection remains near the centre. Intensity is down to 30kts, meaning Gil is now a tropical depression. The environment ahead it hostile as Gil drifts towards the west-southwest, so the depression is not long for this world.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TOSTRENGTHENING...EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AND THEUNDERLYING SSTS OF 27C COULD SUPPORT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVERTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AROUGHLY STEADY STATE FOR GIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THESHIPS AND LGEM SHOW THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY REGAINING TROPICAL STORMSTATUS. WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACTIVE...THE OFFICIAL FORECASTDELAYS DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW UNTIL TOMORROW.

     

     

    Interesting although SHIPS is always bullish.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    I commented in the Henriette thread that Hawaii was an option however interestingly Gil is currently moving WSW indicating possibly some Fujiwara interaction, now if it were to survive there's a chance it could pass south of the big island and well the chart below shows you all you need to know if a trough were to tug it north.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil is hanging on in there this evening. Winds have dropped to 25kts, but the LLCC remains tucked beneath a small area of deep convection. Shear has eased a little over the last 24 hours, and though still at moderate levels of 15kts, it may have slackened off enough for Gil to at least remain a tropical depression for the next day or two, or perhaps longer. The west-southwest track has brough Gil into warmer water too which does rather suggest he may not be done yet. Soon, he will cross over into the Central Pacific (west of 140W).

     

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    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
     

     

    Tropical Depression Gil discussion and 48-hour outlook
     
    At about 5:00 pm., the center of Tropical Depression Gil was located near latitude 13.4 north, longitude 140.2 west. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours.
     
    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days.
     
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 MB/29.71 inches.
     
    Summary of 5:00 pm. information
     
    Location: 13.4n 140.2w
    About 1080 mi east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
    Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
    Present movement: west or 260 degrees at 9 mph
    Minimum central pressure: 1006 MB/29.71 inches

     

    Posted Image

     

     

    http://www.khon2.com/2013/08/05/gil-maintaining-its-intensity-henriette-almost-a-hurricane/

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil has restrengthened to a 35kt tropical storm as it moves into the Central Pacific basin. Convection has continued to increase directly over the LLCC, a sign of low shear. Gil is expected to head generally westwards over the coming days, far enough south to remain over warm water. Shear is expected to remain low too, so Gil is now forecast to reintensify further over the next few days, a dramatic change from the forecast of dissipation.

    Edited by Somerset Squall
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Central Pacific Office is rubbish but keeps Gil south and as a Tropical Storm. It's possible that a trough may pick it up and recurve between 160W and 170W.

     

    Posted Image

     

    Below was the 1992 track...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

     

    As of 5 a.m. on Tuesday, Aug. 6, Gil had shifted back to ‘tropical storm’ status.
     
    According to the latest estimates released by the National Weather Service’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, TS Gil was located 975 miles E/SE of Hilo, and 1095 miles E/SE of Kahului. The system had sustained winds of 40 mph and was continuing on a path west at 9 mph, according to the CPHC.

     

     

    http://mauinow.com/2013/08/06/henriette-strengthens-to-hurricane-gil-to-tropical-storm/

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Fickle Gil has degenerated into a remnant low. The convection became disorganised and the LLC opened up into a trough. The remnants continue to move over warm waters and fairly low shear, so redevelopment is still possible. However, dry air is hindering the system currently, which may be why Gil lost tropical cyclone status earlier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Gil's remnants were still identifiable until today, where they have dissipated just west of Tropical Storm Henriette, after drifting back eastwards. Therefore, regeneration can now be ruled out.

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