west pacific Tropical Storm Jebi

[Somerset Squall]

A tropical storm has formed in the South China Sea, off to the west of the Philippines. JMA estimate the winds to be at 35kts, whereas JTWC still assess the system as a 30kt tropical depression. Jebi's circulation is broad, but there are banding features evident. Shear is low and waters warm, so at least some gradual strengthening is expected as Jebi tracks northwestwards along the southwest side of a ridge. This ridge is expected to eventually move north of the storm which will force Jebi westwards in a couple days time. Jebi is forecast to first make landfall on Hainan Island, followed by a landfall in Northern Vietnam. As this is an initial forecast the track could change but one thing is certain, this area is in for a drenching over the coming days.

[Somerset Squall]

Jebi remains a 35kt tropical storm this evening. JTWC mention that Jebi resembles a monsoon depression, with a broad LLCC, sprawling banding and stronger winds around the peripheries of the storm and lighter winds near the centre. This structure is not a good one for significant strengthening, despite the favourable environment. Nevertheless, JTWC still forecast a peak of 50kts prior to landfall on Hainan Island.

[Coast]

 

Unlike the Atlantic basin, the western Pacific Ocean is rather busy in terms of tropical activity. In particular, the western Pacific may be very active the next two weeks. The first system in line to affect the region is Tropical Storm Jebi, which is currently in the South China Sea, west of the Philippines, and is moving westward.

 

Jebi may impact land first over Hainan Island in southeastern China then continue westward and impact northern Vietnam beginning late Saturday morning, local time.

With warm waters and somewhat favorable atmospheric conditions, Jebi is likely to slowly strengthen before it affects land. However, it is looking less likely that it will strengthen into a minimal typhoon as it is running out of time. Strong winds and heavy rain will likely cause damage to buildings and topple trees while flooding and mudslides threaten lives. There is the potential for 4-8 inches of rain from Hainan Island into northern Vietnam with local amounts over a foot. A second tropical disturbance may develop east of the southern Philippines as early as Saturday.

 

Additionally, a third system may form south of Guam next week.

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-storm-jebi-in-threate/15987325

[Somerset Squall]

Jebi has intensified this evening and now has sustained winds of 45kts. Convection has blossomed over the LLCC which has tightened up somewhat over the last 12 hours. Now that Jebi has taken on this slightly more compact appearance, it could strengthen a little more prior to landfall on Hainan Island.

 

[Coast]

Starting to make it's effects know now:

 

 

About 5,000 tourists have been stranded at an airport in south China's Hainan Province due to the arrival of strong tropical storm Jebi. Some 100 flights have been cancelled at the Sanya Phoenix International Airport as of 1:30 p.m. Friday. They include 56 incoming flights and 43 outgoing flights, according to the airport. The airport, together with airlines, are working to find accomodation for the stranded tourists.

 

Tropical storm Jebi strengthened to a strong tropical storm at 11 p.m. Thursday. It is expected to land near Hainan's city of Wenchang or Lingshui Li Autonomous County Friday afternoon or night, according to the Hainan provincial weather forecast station. Shipping services on the Qiongzhou Strait, a waterway that connects the island province of Hainan and Guangdong Province on the mainland, have been suspended due to the storm's arrival.

 

 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-08/02/c_132597248.htm

 

 

In Vietnam, Jebi is predicted to cross the area from Quang Binh to Thai Binh at noon or early afternoon on Saturday August 3 - according to the latest forecast information. Strong winds and heavy rain is expected to last for approximately 1.5 to 2 days when the storm will be at its most severe. Authorities expect it to continue until late on August 4.

 

Because of the storm all boats including day boats and overnight boats in Halong Bay have been forced to remain at the pier starting from the morning of Aug 2nd until further notice from the local government. Local tour companies like Destination Asia Vietnam is closely monitoring the situation as it unfolds and alternative arrangements are being made for their clients in-country who may be affected by this storm. hipping services on the Qiongzhou Strait, a waterway that connects south China's island province of Hainan and Guangdong Province on the mainland, have been suspended due to the arrival of strong tropical storm Jebi.

 

Local authorities ordered boats in the strait to return to harbor at 8 p.m. Thursday before the tropical storm strengthened to a strong tropical storm three hours later, according to the marine affairs bureau of Haikou, capital of Hainan. The bureau has issued a yellow alert and initiated an emergency response for the storm. As of 7 a.m. Friday, the storm was moving northwest at a speed of 15 km per hour. It is expected to land near Hainan's city of Wenchang or Lingshui Li Autonomous County Friday afternoon or night, according to the Hainan provincial weather forecast station. The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center issued a yellow wave warning on Friday.

 

From Friday afternoon to Saturday noon, Jebi is expected to create sea waves three meters to 5.5 meters high in the northwest part of the South China Sea and in the Beibu Gulf. The center also issued a blue storm surge warning, forecasting storm surges up to 150 cm from Friday to Saturday morning in coastal areas of Yangjiang City and the east Leizhou Peninsula, Guangdong Province. China uses a four-tier color-coded weather warning system, with red representing the most severe weather, followed by orange, yellow and blue. The center urged local authorities to strengthen protection for local fishermen and patrol levees for potential risks.

 

In the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, which borders Guangdong, nearly 10,000 tourists on Weizhou Island have been evacuated to the coastal city of Beihai since Thursday to prepare for the arrival of the storm, according to the city government. 

 

 

http://www.eturbonews.com/36710/tropical-storm-jebi-threatens-tourism-vietnam-and-china

[Somerset Squall]

Jebi developed an eye briefly earlier today when sustained winds reached 60kts, just below typhoon intensity. Jebi has since weakened to 50kts as it interacts with Hainan Island, and will weaken further before emerging into the Gulf Of Tonkin then making a second landfall, this time in Northern Vietnam, as Coast's post describes.