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Convective / Storm Discussion - 31st July onwards 2013

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Oh, surprise, surprise... Posted Image

 

Yes, i think we storm enthusiasts should all hire a village in Lincolnshire from May to September and live there. There are a lot of open spaces so we could always build one.

 

Temperatures have already reached 31c in a number of places with a 32c now just to the west of London. Could that 33.5c be in jeopardy today?

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Three places for GFS Free-atmosphere charts for the next few days:

 

Posted Image

 

Not too bad for generally overnight and then chances Monday into Tuesday.

 

Posted Image

 

Even better for the next couple of days then lower possibilities

 

Posted Image

 

Better than the Manchester chart and some low level chances for the next 5 to 7 days emerging.

 

GFS overview looking best at these times/days:

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Isolated stuff, nothing trouser-wetting there at the moment.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Isolated stuff, nothing trouser-wetting there at the moment.

 

Isolated stuff, but certainly over the next couple of days they would be intense if and where they do happen.

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wimblettben Rising Star

wimblettben

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted

I have just taken two pictures of unstable mid level cloud which has just shown up around 4:00PM.

 

 

There have been scattered mid level clouds around all day today but they have'nt looked like this. In fact as I type it looks as if they are growing bigger.

 

If this type of instability carries on through the night and tomorrow mourning then their is a high chance of thundery outbreaks occouring as there won't be any Cap around to stop the clouds from building to a sufficient hight to produce lightning.

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted

I have just taken two pictures of unstable mid level cloud which has just shown up around 4:00PM.

 

 
 

 

There have been scattered mid level clouds around all day today but they have'nt looked like this. In fact as I type it looks as if they are growing bigger.

 

If this type of instability carries on through the night and tomorrow mourning then their is a high chance of thundery outbreaks occouring as there won't be any Cap around to stop the clouds from building to a sufficient hight to produce lightning.

 

Have the exact same setup here, but yes it does seems like the cap is starting to be broken in some parts. The Altocumulus floccus clouds that were building earlier were shooting up, then flattening themselves out due to the cap. But in the last hour, they are just continuing to grow.

 

 

SM

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Classic Spanish plume clouds here. Shame there will be no or very little in the way of thundery activity to accompany this. :(

post-6797-0-64228600-1375372622_thumb.jp

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Near Shannon, just a short while ago

 

Posted Image

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted

To the south and West of here the cloud seems to be bubbling up quite nicely. To the south coast there seems to be a bit of precipitation but not sure if it's an mistake ?

Where's here? Can you add your location for a frame of reference.PS. Welcome.
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Kato Newbie

Kato

Posted
  • Location: Hart Village, County Durham
  • Weather Preferences: Severe
  • Location: Hart Village, County Durham
Posted

We have very murky, muddy looking low cloud over us now and the wind seems to be picking up, not much sunlight is getting through this

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Lots of Ac-Cas clouds here. Before the days of charts and having the knowledge I have I would have looked up at those clouds and thought to myself there may be a storm tonight. 

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

Lots of continuous Altocumulus cas and floccus through today nice pictures might upload later/tmw, this is a sign of increasingly humid unstable mid layer. Would imagine some active electrical maybe dry elevated thunderstorms(overnight) and storms within the next 1-2 days. If the sunset displays mid level signs this eve like today with increasing size I'd see a more confident risk of the possiblity of elevated storms moving into the south overnight.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted (edited)

I have driven from Glastonbury to Burgess Hill today and noted an area of AC CS that was in a convergence zone. I first noticed it in Wiltshire and have watched in drift slowly eastwards as I stopped off on the way. It has now arrived on my doorstep and has built sufficiently to have a radar return. I wonder can it develop into anything more significant?

Edited by chionomaniac
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

I think it overnight some surprises for the south/se. NAE indicates some activity over the SE later tonight. Cold front moving from west after a very hot day. of course need things to mix correctly for a good cake don't we! I look at the FAX charts looking interesting for next week with a return of the plume perhaps.

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted (edited)

Few light showers forming from Brighton up to St Albans?

 

 

Looks like the Met Office have forecast this already for Brighton.

Edited by poseidon
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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Lots of Ac-Cas clouds here. Before the days of charts and having the knowledge I have I would have looked up at those clouds and thought to myself there may be a storm tonight. 

 

Same! I was surprised to see such developments

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

Just had quite a dark mass of Ac-Cas come over - blocked the sun out for a while, to my north, west to east. To the west it's looking pretty dark cause of cloud build up

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DanN Enthusiast

DanN

Posted
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Storms.
  • Location: Wickford, Essex
Posted

Forecast soundings do show the elevated instability quite nicely. I would take a guess that a combination of the high 850 theta-e values and some weak height falls from the west (WRF-12K shows this heading east this evening) are generating a little (elevated) instability? I can't really make out much more forcing for anything other than that. It looks as though most of the country is under the convergent side of the jet as well.

 

Satellite analysis shows, what must now be, elevated lapse rates. All a bit weak perhaps?

 

post-9921-0-22116200-1375379635_thumb.gi

 

Just a thought, but I'm unsure if any of that is actually accurate!

 

Posted Image

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

This evening kind of reminds me of the 1st August 2008. It was a very warm day and I cannot remember the forecasts but I went to bed not expecting anything thundery. I was awoken to a loud crash of thunder at around 2am and then was treated to an elevated lightning display for about an hour afterwards.

 

Here's hoping Posted Image

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted (edited)

Some Ac drifting in from the south - quite a lot of it actually.

 

Here's a picture:

 

Posted Image

Edited by cheese
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paul m Aficionado

paul m

Posted
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Morley, Leeds West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

The clouds over MorleyPosted Image

Edited by paul m
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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

Just had quite a dark mass of Ac-Cas come over - blocked the sun out for a while, to my north, west to east. To the west it's looking pretty dark cause of cloud build up

Starting to break up a little again now. Think the cloud here was the top of the line of cloud that came East from Brighton.

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