Rain watch Sunday 4th August - Monday 5th August

[Herefordweather]

Met office quoting between 20-40mm for much of the southwest and Wales. Nae shows totals of up to 100mm in places. In Hereford we've had some heavy rain this morning. I'll check total so far in a bit.

[Herefordweather]

Latest NAE reduces rain totals to between 30-60mm. Still very wet for many areas.

[Summer Sun]

Amber warnings for the SW seem quite likely with totals of upto 60mm possible I don't think they'll be much river flooding around as they are running quite low (well they are up here anyway) though temporary surface flooding can't be ruled out

[Summer Sun]

Accumulated totals to 18:00 Monday

 

[The PIT]

Oops 0 mm so far. It's them warnings you know.

[johnholmes]

I suggest you all remember that predicting pressure pattern at the surface is far easier than getting when, where, how much rain will fall is in the same time scale.

Over the past 48 hours the GFS version, at different times,not looked at NAE or Net Wx versions, has predicted amounts between 1 and 18mm for this area?

 

Hugely difficult, in spite of the massive computing power, it is a fact of life, best everyone comes to accept it, yes at times very accurate, probably about 60%, but at others? That is for rain, so do remember this when it comes to will it snow in my back garden, when and how much! There are another 7 variables to take into account when that little exercise is needed.

Edited August 5, 2013 by johnholmes

[The PIT]

Shouldn't this thread be in the severe weather section ???

[Bobby]

This rain is relentless, 35mm here so far and the main stuff hasn't come yet it seems. UKWW warning

 

UKww Weather Watch for Heavy RainIssued Sun 04/08/2013 1500GMT Areas affected: SW England and S WalesValid from: 1500GMT Sunday 4th August 2013 - 1700GMT Monday 5th August 2013General evolution: Low pressure development within a deeply saturated frontal zone, encouraged by a strong oncoming upper jet. Convective elements are expected to enhance rain rates with a sharp cold front forming over the SW early Monday.Forecast: Along with current and recent precipitation in the SW of the UK from the waving frontal zone, further developments are expected to deliver some 20-30mm over a wide area and 50-60mm over the areas concerned through to Monday afternoon, with possibly more locally owing to convective elements and strong winds affecting high ground.

[laserguy]

Since early this morning I've been popping on and off the radar when I've a moment, watching the rain in the southwest move northeastwards. All along it's been weakening as it goes and predictably, it's vanished just at the moment it reached within a few miles of me. Seriously, I'm so mad I could explode. Rain Watch? Watch The Rain Disappear Watch, more like.

[laserguy]

Just seen some woman on telly who was under the impression that it's raining heavily here. No it isn't, it's bone dry and the radar says it'll stay that way for hours - assuming it makes it this far at all. These are the sort of people we're up against.

[SteveB]

Hardly any rain here overnight, was expecting 30+mm, ended up with 4mm.

 

Temp 16.9c

Edited August 5, 2013 by SteveB

[Static Prevails]

3.3mm here.

[Evening thunder]

3.6mm in total and 2.0mm today. 0.2mm since 1:30am and nothing coming this way on radar either..