Whatever Happened to The 'Modern Summer'?

[Methuselah]

So, what has happened to it then? I tried to 'explain' it with melting Arctic Sea-Ice, others by a 'Quiet Sun'...Whatever the cause, it seems, unless I am mistaken, to have gone the way of the 'Modern Winter' this year...AWOL!

 

Discuss...

[nitro_deluxe]

All followed pretty much the same route as the New Romantic scene..to some it was good while it lasted lol

Modern or not patterns have not changed, whether our so called experts, leaders, bogey men or women or whoever else, likes it or not?

Leave politics out of weather hehe...oh and music!

Edited August 7, 2013 by triple_x1

[mike Meehan]

Bit better than the last few years though, but some way to catch up with some of our former years - forget 1976, that ended on 26th of August, though that was excellent while it lasted but I thinking more of 1959 when the fine weather lasted right through until the middle of October.

[Summer of 95]

I'm not convinced it's gone- let's be honest this summer has been nothing special save 2 weeks in July and that one day heatwave on August 1st. In the 90s or early 2000s it would have been definitely "average". There were blips during the Twenty Years without a Winter; Feb 1991, Feb 1994 and much of 1995/6. 

 

A 1995/1976/1959 next year, followed by a good one (like 1989 or 2006) in 2015 and I'll believe it was only a Seven Years Without a Summer.

[cheeky_monkey]

So, what has happened to it then? I tried to 'explain' it with melting Arctic Sea-Ice, others by a 'Quiet Sun'...Whatever the cause, it seems, unless I am mistaken, to have gone the way of the 'even larger teapot' this year...AWOL!

 

Discuss...

surely modern summer ties in with modern DEC-FEB (why is this m.winter a swear word?)..summers between 1989-2006 were often warm or hot..since then UK summers have reverted back to type

Edited August 9, 2013 by cheeky_monkey

[Coast]

I reckon it's the jet-stream - it seems to be to blame for everything else! 

[BornFromTheVoid]

So, what has happened to it then? I tried to 'explain' it with melting Arctic Sea-Ice, others by a 'Quiet Sun'...Whatever the cause, it seems, unless I am mistaken, to have gone the way of the 'even larger teapot' this year...AWOL!

 

Discuss...

 

Perhaps we're in the post-modern summer period now!

 

The sea ice influence is considered to be at its lowest in the summer, so I wouldn't consider that important.

 

Snow cover may be important though. The delayed snow extent melt this year was quite unusual compared to previous year, as you can see on the April graph.

So maybe the snow cover played a role? The analogue forecast I made back in May predicted a good July, but that included everything from solar activity to ENSO, so it's hard to know what might have made the difference

The fact that this was this year had the first +ve NAO summer month since 2006 shows how important the NAO is to our summers

 

NAO for June July ad August, but just June and July for 2013

 

'tis a tough one!

[laserguy]

Modern summer - it's gone down the tubes, along with the global warming crapola which must have inspired it.... for some at least.

[Weather-history]

Noting has happened because there is no such thing, summer is summer, winter is winter, autumn is autumn, spring is spring.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Noting has happened because there is no such thing, summer is summer, winter is winter, autumn is autumn, spring is spring.

 

But the weather patterns happen for a reason/s, always have, always will do.

[Tamara]

 The sun has surely played a part in the behaviour of recent summer weather patterns (as well as winters of course). No coincidence that - with solar cycle 24 being the weakest for some considerable time, and part of a generally increasing trend towards ever weaker solar activity.

 

Increased activity of stratospheric ozone transportation via the Dobson Brewer circulation from the tropical statosphere to the polar stratosphere has built up warmer temperature feedbacks in that part of the upper atmosphere over the pole, which in turn is conduisive to blocking to higher latitudes, which in turn has driven the jet stream further south and fuelled the recent change in seasonal weather patterns

 

However even large scale driving factors such as this, along with arctic sea ice patterns etc etc, do not dictate that every season, year in year out, will automatically follow its predeccesors - so with this year in mind then, a stronger westerly, colder stratospheric prolife over the pole since the late Spring has not favoured the HLB that dominated up to then, and instead encouraged mid latitude blocking from the Azores with attendant lower pressure over the pole. The +QBO (westerly) being a large factor behind this change in blocking patterns along with a "relative peak" in an overall weak SC24.

 

Essentially this is the same principle in reverse that we saw at work during the stronger solar cycle phases prior to SC24 where amidst a prevalent colder stratospheric pattern, with a stronger and more stable polar vortex, we still saw occasional exceptions to the overall rule.

 

However, because the dominant pattern lasted over a couple of decades a few people were mislead into the thinking it represented a longer term step change in patterns. Hence the sibling counterpart, the "Mod W**t*r" was coined.

 

"Modern summers" are, for just a few of the reasons as stated, as much a phantom and erroneous concept as "Modern winters"

 

Edit: for some reason, the swear filter kicks on *MW*

Edited August 10, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Weather-history]

But the weather patterns happen for a reason/s, always have, always will do.

Yes but there is nothing modern about them as you said yourself.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yes but there is nothing modern about them as you said yourself.

 

Agreed, the term "modern" is unnecessary. Especially, like the Winter version, when it comes with proclamations of CET values that will never be recorded again.

Edited August 10, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Methuselah]

Agreed, the term "modern" is unnecessary. Especially, like the Winter version, when it comes with proclamations of CET values that will never be recorded again.

I know. It was an entirely facetious term! 

Edited August 10, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[BornFromTheVoid]

I know. It was an entirely factious term! 

 

I realise the manner you meant it in Pete!

 

I suppose the main "modern" aspect of our the weather these days, is the amount of loony explanations we get for it all, thanks to the internet!

Edited August 10, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[The watcher]

In the many million years of the Earths existence I'm sure we'll have had a similar pattern to what this and recent summers have seen, problem is, many weren't that interested in recording it, or didn't know how. We haven't had great summers, but we shouldn't expect to have them in abundance either.

[laserguy]

Well that's two seasons 'modernised', just spring and autumn left to tweak. Whadd'ya fancy?