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Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I made a big analysis on the 2012-13 thread, if you want to see it, and Cohen etc have made great publications on the matter; but I believe Aug-Oct is an important time as early Autumn snow growth generally leads to colder UK/Western European winters; in 2 months time, it would be useful to compare to recent years and look at the westerly extent of the snow, ice and snow area and the synoptics around Russia, China and the Arctic have been over autumn.

 

cheers, I will have a look and keep an eye over the next 2 months.

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

Excellent to see this thread up and running...if i could have a a December 2010 coupled with some early 80s winters id be a very happy boy indeed......c'mon the snow!!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Perhaps a little snow cover boost this weekend?

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

Perhaps a little snow cover boost this weekend?

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted Image

Wonder if this will be the start of the general increase of cover, perhaps too early, but rutgers snow lab not working at mo to check. Think we are in about the third week of  0.12 million sq miles of snow cover same as last seasons lowest which lasted 8 weeks.  

Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Wonder if this will be the start of the general increase of cover, perhaps too early, but rutgers snow lab not working at mo to check. Think we are in about the third week of  0.12 million sq miles of snow cover same as last seasons lowest which lasted 8 weeks.  

 

Rutgers wasn't working yesterday either, just doing some maintenance.

 

This site, despite a few days lag time, is very useful http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/

 

This August, snow cover has been quite close to average and much better than last year.

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: lincoln
  • Weather Preferences: erratic weather,week of v.heavy snow or cold
  • Location: lincoln

Great! eyes will be on the prize Posted Image​  Posted Image http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam

Edited by LincolnSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

The main talking point this spring and summer in the Arctic has been the cold especially but

not exclusively north of 80 degrees. The reasons behind such unseasonable and persistent

cold weather should have been one of the main talking points in the Arctic threads in the

climate section during spring and summer. 

 

The very low temperatures this spring and summer have certainly among other things played

there part in greatly slowing the Arctic ice melt during the summer especially with the very

vunerable ice pack after last years record melt season.

As I mentioned a while back it does indeed look as if the Arctic winter has set in for many parts

of the Arctic more so over the eastern side with little chance of a recovery in temperatures I

would have thought.

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

IMO, it's all down to synoptics: above 80o North, it's been a cold summer; down here, it hasn't?

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

IMO, it's all down to synoptics: above 80o North, it's been a cold summer; down here, it hasn't?

Definite correlation. Only problem is that if it has been such a cool summer in the high Arctic, the ice extent, area and volume are still all pretty awful.

Plenty of snow around in the next few days there though.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

That is down to the battering that the ice had received since 2007. The ice is much thinner now and prone to melt even with good synoptics.

Surely there must be a correlation between summers here and up there. The most recent awful summers were 2007 and 2012, both years recorded records ice melt...... no mere coincidence surely.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

I am new to these charts and am wondering what a really promising chart would look like in say 1 month and 2 months time and what a really bad one would look like from the point of view of a UK winter.

imo opinion the less ice the better as it adds more fresh water to the sea reducing the speed of the gulf stream which in turn increases the chance of blocking to our north. Could be wrong though but last years low amount of sea ice didn't do us any harm in terms of getting a cold winter.
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Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl

imo opinion the less ice the better as it adds more fresh water to the sea reducing the speed of the gulf stream which in turn increases the chance of blocking to our north. Could be wrong though but last years low amount of sea ice didn't do us any harm in terms of getting a cold winter.

That's exactly how I read the scenario !!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

That is down to the battering that the ice had received since 2007. The ice is much thinner now and prone to melt even with good synoptics.Surely there must be a correlation between summers here and up there. The most recent awful summers were 2007 and 2012, both years recorded records ice melt...... no mere coincidence surely.

 

No coincidence, I suspect the AO and NAO played a role.

This is the first summer since 2006 to have a mainly +ve AO and the first to record a single month with a +ve NAO since 2006.

 

post-6901-0-28835900-1377162783_thumb.jp

 

We also saw the snow cover switch from 9th highest in April, to 3rd lowest cover in May. A change like that, at that time of year, had not been observed before. The above average April snow cover, was only the 2nd this century and was the highest since 1996...

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

imo opinion the less ice the better as it adds more fresh water to the sea reducing the speed of the gulf stream which in turn increases the chance of blocking to our north. Could be wrong though but last years low amount of sea ice didn't do us any harm in terms of getting a cold winter.

 

Not quite enough extra fresh water from the sea ice to have that kind of effect. To have any hope of impacting the gulf stream in the way you'd like with fresh water, we'd need to have Greenland experience a sudden and catastrophic melt. But that's pretty unlikely for now.

 

There is the possibility that the extra warmth and moisture from the sea ice loss reduces the September Eurasian snow cover increase, which then can encourage a more rapid build up of snow in October. That October increase helps with establishing negative AO later in the winter, according to research by Judah Cohen

 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

This thread is top viewing as we get closer to winter, have enjoyed the musings and thoughts that go into this thread in recent years. Looking forward to the ride of winter 2013-2014¬ 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

imo opinion the less ice the better as it adds more fresh water to the sea reducing the speed of the gulf stream which in turn increases the chance of blocking to our north. Could be wrong though but last years low amount of sea ice didn't do us any harm in terms of getting a cold winter.

 

I take it this is a separate issue from the fresh snow edging westward early as I am led to believe that extensive snow build up over Russia and Scandi can increase the chances of Scandi blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Posted Image

First real attempt at a heavy rain and snow event across Nunavut this season, especially at lower latitudes. Snow accumulations will generally be quite large over higher ground on Baffin; though a lot will be rain and sleet at lower levels.

 

Posted Image

By Saturday evening, two bands containing rain, sleet and snow will be travelling up the Canadian arctic and the eastern Greenland coast, a lot of rain will fall across south-east Greenland, but this will turn to snow as it moves northward. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

I take it this is a separate issue from the fresh snow edging westward early as I am led to believe that extensive snow build up over Russia and Scandi can increase the chances of Scandi blocking.

Yes, there's a certain profile that the snow across Eurasia seems to follow that usually governs whether I think it's gonna be hard or mild winter :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

If we look over the records for the last few hundred years, what are the earliest dates that the weather foretells signs of a coming very early harsh winter?

I'm guessing about six weeks time? 

Hoping that the new mini ice age holds off for a few years at least! , Any thoughts on if it is even possible that we will have a very warm winter http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/23/uk-weather-warmest-winter_n_1223037.html  or is that less likely than a 1947 winter?

no thanks! 

What's that all about/the link? - the supposed 2012 winter? and not the warmest on record by far...huffington post say no more!

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Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

How encouraging to see this thread up and running already. Can't wait to see the snow creep towards us!

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