atlantic Tropical Storm Erin

[Somerset Squall]

The fifth tropical depression of the season has formed south of the Cape Verde Islands, in the Eastern Atlantic. Intensity is 30kts. 05L appears close to tropical storm strength, as very deep convection is expanding near the LLCC and good banding features are taking shape in the southern quadrant of the cyclone. For the next 48hrs, shear is set to remain light and waters warm, so intensification should occur as 05L moves generally west-northwestwards along the south side of a narrow ridge. After this time, sea temperatures cool along track, and 05L should also run into the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL), which should cause 05L to begin to weaken. The weaker cyclone is then expected to turn more towards the west in the low level flow. By day 4/5, waters warm up along track again, but the SAL could still be plaguing the system by this point, so further weakening appears to be the most likely outcome at this stage, but this is uncertain.

Edited August 15, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Sainsbo]

Tropical Depression 05 L is now Tropical Storm Erin, the 5th named storm of the season with windspeeds of 40mph and pressure at 1006mb. Intensification looks likely over the next couple of days, but it doesn't currently look like it will get to hurricane status before starting to weaken as conditions become less favourable for developmennt.

 

 

 

Edited August 15, 2013 by Sainsbo

[summer blizzard]

The higher forward speed when it turns left will probably decouple its mid and low levek centers. This could well be a Dorian repeat.

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Erin became the Atlantic hurricane season's fifth named storm on Thursday morning after initially developing as a tropical depression late Wednesday night. No impacts to land are expected into early next week as Erin moves off to the west-northwest away from Africa and into the central Atlantic Ocean.

 

Some strengthening is forecast through the weekend until Erin encounters dry and stable air early next week, which may then lead to weakening. It's too early to determine whether Erin will have any impacts on land farther to the west, including the eastern Caribbean Islands.

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-storm-erin-atlantic-ocean-20130815

 

 

Tropical Storm ERIN: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

 

[Somerset Squall]

Erin has struggled over the last 24hrs, and instead of strengthening, has weakened back to a tropical depression, with winds now at 30kts. Erin took a slightly more northern route than originally forecast, meaning that sea temperatures have not been so warm, and this more northerly route has sent Erin into the dry air much sooner than expected too. Sea temps do increase in a day or so along track, but the air is expected to remain dry, and shear is set to rise. Therefore, Erin will probably lose tropical cyclone status soon.

[summer blizzard]

A catastrophic collapse in convection.

 

[Coast]

 

Tropical Storm Erin reborn, but should fade to depression soon

 

OUTLOOK: Despite an uphill battle against dry air and cooler waters, Tropical Storm Erin was reborn late Friday but still is forecast to become a tropical depression over the next five days as it moves north into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the Caribbean disturbance has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and could strengthen into a depression or storm over the weekend. It's expected to make landfall somewhere between mainland Mexico and Louisiana either on Sunday or Monday.

 

WHAT FLORIDA CAN EXPECT: It's unlikely that Tropical Storm Erin will pose a threat to Florida or the U.S. coast. Moisture from the Caribbean disturbance still is spreading clouds over the state.

 

PARTICULARS: Erin could degenerate into a "remnant low" sooner than five days, as indicated by some models, hurricane specialist John Cangialosi of the National Hurricane Center said. As the fifth named storm, Erin puts the 2013 season about two weeks ahead of schedule, as the fifth system on average arises on Aug. 31.

 

 

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/storm-center-blog/sfl-tropics-friday-20130815,0,1492131.story

[Somerset Squall]

Erin restrengthened to a 35kt tropical storm overnight, as convection built closer to the LLCC. However, already the convection is distancing itself from the centre again due to southwesterly shear. Erin is turning to the west as ridging restrengthenes to the north, but should turn back northwestwards in a few days time as another weakeness opens up in the ridge. Very dry air awaits Erin, and shear is set to remain on the high side, so, despite Erin moving over warmer water over the next few days, weakening is expected, and degeneration into a remnant low anytime in the next 4 days.

[summer blizzard]

NHC still expect dissipation although Erin is better than this time yesterday, She's definitely not vertically stacked as you can see below but she is moving slowly and could do something tonight.

 

[Coast]

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013

0300 UTC SUN AUG 18 2013

 

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  37.7W AT 18/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  37.7W AT 18/0300Z

AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  37.2W

 

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.3N  39.2W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.9N  41.3W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.5N  43.6W

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.0N  46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

 

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N  37.7W

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/172030.shtml

[Somerset Squall]

Erin has been downgraded to a 30kt tropical depression again this morning as it turns to the west. The LLCC is entirely exposed and there is no deep convection associated with the system. Unless convection returns, Erin will degenerate into a remnant low as soon as this afternoon.

Edited August 18, 2013 by Somerset Squall