late august hot spell... how rare?

[mushymanrob]

this has been a funny year.... we had the worst of the winter late in spring/march, now we appear to be on the brink of a 'hot' spell of sunny settled warm summery weather at the last few days of 'summer'... late august.

 

now thinking back.... i cannot ever recall a 'hot' spell like the one expected, starting this late. ok, some years, like 1995 august was cracking... but it was a continuation of what had gone before...

 

what we appear to be on the cusp of, is a whole new, fresh, evolution of an anticyclonic settled spell right at the end of the meterological summer. now i might be wrong here... but i cannot think of such an event in the last 30 plus years, this assumes this spell will happen and temps widely in the mid-upper 20's c.

 

has this late august hot spell ever happened before (i assume it has) but when? how uncommon is it? im not talking about 'nice' spells into september, or short lived couple of days which are common... but a decent, protracted, spell of 5 days + of a widespread, anticyclonic, 25c+ weather.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Could we be heading into a late summer hot spell that lasts so long it morphs into early Sept heat? If so, would we into 1976 territory?

[Coast]

1906:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_United_Kingdom_heat_wave

[hillbilly]

wasn't 2009 good at the end of august?There does appear to be a shortage of good weather at the end of august,there have only been two occasions in 60 years when a good august failed to follow a good july.

1961 had a late heatwave.....and of course we all know about 1906!

[mushymanrob]

Could we be heading into a late summer hot spell that lasts so long it morphs into early Sept heat? If so, would we into 1976 territory?

 

but 76 was already in place... there was no 3 week break between spells, im talking about one that starts in late august..

 

1906:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_United_Kingdom_heat_wave

 

thanks... rockinghorse doo doo then!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

That 1906 heatwave was incredible. 35.6C in September! If this heat extended into Sept I would not be surprised to see a 30C recorded though.

[Weather-history]

1984 springs to mind, the second half of that August was hot at times.

[wimblettben]

i'm certain I can remember the very end of August 2005 being hot and sunny.

 

I can't remember how long it was though.

[johnholmes]

Just taking a very quick look at my data back to 1997 and the only year that MIGHT fit was 1999, I'll take a closer look?

[reef]

Probably 1990 here, everyday but one from 22nd-28th August was 24.0C or above, with five days surpassing 25C. Minimum temps were all above 14.4C and several above 15C.

 

In recent years its been pretty rare, but thats not saying much as we havent surpassed 26.5C in August since 2006.

 

Its a definite anomoly as the 1981-2010 mean maximum temp for the final week in August and first week of September here are almost identical, when you would probably expect a degree or so difference in the normal trend of things.

[johnholmes]

It probably did fit here

mean last 8 days August 16.9C with absolute max of 23.3C

The first 12 days of September (it may have lasted longer as I went on holiday to Greece 12th)

mean for 12 days was 19.2C with only 2 days below 25C, coolish nights offset high daytime values, mean max was 25.5C compared to 20.7C for the last 8 days of August

[Weather-history]

i'm certain I can remember the very end of August 2005 being hot and sunny. I can't remember how long it was though.

Not long.

[Thundery wintry showers]

18th August 1996 springs to my mind- there had been warm sunny interludes earlier that month but nothing outstanding, but on the 18th, during a generally hot week and assisted by a south to south-westerly breeze, Sunderland hit 30.0C, the first time Sunderland climbed into the 30s since the 3rd August 1990.

 

August 2009 had a hot and sunny third week in Norwich with temperatures generally around 25-27C, though it was generally cooler and cloudier further north and west.

 

August 1955 had a late hot spell, though like the late August 1995 spell, it was part of a generally hot dry sunny mid to late summer.

 

In 1999, after a changeable and thundery August (away from north-west Scotland, where it was sunny and dry), a hot spell set in during the first week of September.

[mushymanrob]

i'm certain I can remember the very end of August 2005 being hot and sunny.

 

I can't remember how long it was though.

 

... but ALL of august was hot and sunny, thats not what im asking!

 

84 and 99?... cant recall 84, but im not sure it was a lengthy 'hot' spell for most of the uk... wasnt it just v nice? by hot i mean successive days with temps widely over 25c... which is expected later this week (of course the questions moot if we dont get those kind of temps lol)

 

99?... mybe warm and dry, but lengthy hot days above 25c?.. not here we didnt i dont think..

 

ok, im jumping the gun here, we havnt had any late august heat yet so its hard to compare it with other years... it might yet only end up being patchily nice, best wait and see what we actually get!

[Weather-history]

... but ALL of august was hot and sunny, thats not what im asking!

 

84 and 99?... cant recall 84, but im not sure it was a lengthy 'hot' spell for most of the uk... wasnt it just v nice? by hot i mean successive days with temps widely over 25c... which is expected later this week (of course the questions moot if we dont get those kind of temps lol)

 

99?... mybe warm and dry, but lengthy hot days above 25c?.. not here we didnt i dont think..

 

ok, im jumping the gun here, we havnt had any late august heat yet so its hard to compare it with other years... it might yet only end up being patchily nice, best wait and see what we actually get!

August 1984 saw Manchester Airport recorded 5 consecutive days of 27.0C or over from 19th to 23rd.

Going further back, there was a short intense hot spell at the back end of August 1930, got a Times article on that and August 1933 that extended into the September.

August 1930

August 1933

[I remember Atlantic 252]

31st one year, around 2005 was very hot, just a one off not a spell, but was day before my b'day, ive not had many hot b'day's

[Richard2901]

Can't really remember any. Plenty of years have warm sunny weather in early September e.g. 1999, 2004, 2007, 2012 but late August often seems autumnal even in good years like 1995 and 2003 late August was poor.

 

If we get one this year it will probably be because I'm abroad which is the first time I've had my summer holiday this late. I get back from Italy on 4th September so you can bank on that being the day the warm settled weather ends.

[Norrance]

Did 1973 not have some hot August and early September weather after a coolish July?

Edited August 17, 2013 by Norrance

[AderynCoch]

1906

1942

1947

1984

1991

 

All spring to mind. I don't think heat in late August is that unusual, it's just that we've gone so long without it.

 

It can't come soon enough as far as I'm concerned. What a grotty day today.

[hillbilly]

... but ALL of august was hot and sunny, thats not what im asking!

 

84 and 99?... cant recall 84, but im not sure it was a lengthy 'hot' spell for most of the uk... wasnt it just v nice? by hot i mean successive days with temps widely over 25c... which is expected later this week (of course the questions moot if we dont get those kind of temps lol)

 

99?... mybe warm and dry, but lengthy hot days above 25c?.. not here we didnt i dont think..

 

ok, im jumping the gun here, we havnt had any late august heat yet so its hard to compare it with other years... it might yet only end up being patchily nice, best wait and see what we actually get!

you are right august 1984 was an entirely hot month following a hot july so was 1947...late hot spells starting late august are quite rare

[Yarmy]

It was circa 30C on October 1st 2011 (around here anyway) although it didn't last long.

[mushymanrob]

you are right august 1984 was an entirely hot month following a hot july so was 1947...late hot spells starting late august are quite rare

 

yeah i thought so, weather history supplied a couple of examples that were way before my time...

 

other years mentioned appear to be either local events, short lived ,  or came directly on the back of other hot spells  not having a 3 week atlantic spell prior .

Edited August 18, 2013 by mushymanrob

[GRHinPorts]

That 1906 heatwave was incredible. 35.6C in September! If this heat extended into Sept I would not be surprised to see a 30C recorded though.

 

1906 saw two enormous earthquakes in the April in San Francisco and the August in Valparaiso. I wonder if that might have knocked weather patterns around all over the world.

[Weather-history]

1906 saw two enormous earthquakes in the April in San Francisco and the August in Valparaiso. I wonder if that might have knocked weather patterns around all over the world.

All it was a deep southerly flow that happened to coincide with a hot plume that was present at the time that it could tap into. No different than the easterly of January 1987 coincided with a very deep cold pool of air that was present and it could tap into. Nothing to do with earthquakes.

[mushymanrob]

well late august hot spells continue to be rare events then, as this much vaunted one looks like being a fools summer (and many of us bought into that). its looking like 'heat' (25c+ ) will not be as widespread as earlier expected, nor will it last as long as earlier predicted...

 

looks like those of us who on aug 2nd thought 'summer was over' (in terms of a hot spell of 3+ consecutive days of temps of 25c or over) arnt going to be far wrong after all....

 

bugger.