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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Tropical Depression 12W has formed, a few hundred miles east-southeast of Taiwan, and nearly 400 miles south-southwest of Okinawa. Convection is steadily increasing near the LLCC, but there is no evidence of banding features yet. Winds are at 30kts. The depression is moving southeastwards currently but is expected to swing northeast then back northwest and west towards northern Taiwan over the coming days. This is due to a rather interesting scenario of Fujiwara Interaction with Tropical Depression 13W to the northeast. The east and then northeast motion is expected due to a small ridge to the south, then the swing north and back west is forecast due to direct binary interaction with TD 13W. 12W is expected to be the dominant system, and possibly absorb 13W. Though this is the more favoured solution, it is possible that instead 13W will absorb 12W. The resultant system is forecast to become a typhoon over warm waters and low shear as it moves westwards towards northern Taiwan along a newly built ridge to the north. As ever with Fujiwara Interaction, there is much uncertainty. Other scenarios include the systems not merging at all if they manage to keep a fair seperation distance.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

12W has changed little since this morning and remains a 30kt tropical depression. Tropical Depression 13W to the north has weakened and is no longer a tropical cyclone- so it appears we have been robbed of seeing a Fujiwara Interaction. 12W is still expected to push north then west over the coming days as ridging to the north builds and assumes steering influence from the ridge to the south currently steering it.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

12W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Trami, with winds now at 35kts. Convection has expanded over the LLCC and some banding features have also formed in the southern quadrant of the storm. An upper level low to the northwest is supressing convective development in the northern quadrant of Trami, which accounts for it's slightly squashed state on this side. However, the upper level low is forecast ot weaken, providing an environment more favourable for significant intensification. The track forecast remains the same- the ridge to the south steering Trami east will slowly weaken, to be replaced by a ridge to the north. For a while, the two ridges will battle for steering influence for Trami, which will result in a period of slow northward motion before Trami swings back west in response to the northern ridge winning out. Taiwan need to be wary of Trami as the storm is expected to become a typhoon prior to landfall on the north side of the country. Eastern China also need to watch as Trami will go on to impact there afterwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Taipei, Aug. 18 (CNA) A tropical storm forming in waters southeast of Taiwan could bring significant rains to the island from Aug. 20, the Central Weather Bureau said Sunday. As of 8 a.m., Tropical Storm Trami was centered 700 kilometers east-southeast of Eluanbi on the southernmost tip of Taiwan, moving in an east-northeast direction at a speed of 8 km per hour, the weather bureau said. The storm was described as packing sustainable winds of 65 kph, with gusts reaching 90 kph.
 
Due to its mixing with a low pressure system to the east, Trami is expected to continue moving east, but might eventually turn west, bringing rain and winds to the island, forecasters said. The strength of the storm's impact remains to be observed, the bureau said, but cautioned against unstable weather and increasing waves in waters north and east of Taiwan as the storm approaches. Trami, which means "Rose" in Vietnamese, is the 12th storm of the 2013 Pacific typhoon season. 

 

 

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http://focustaiwan.tw/news/asoc/201308180005.aspx

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Trami has strengthened over the last day and is now a 50kt tropical storm. The storm is much more symmetrical now the upper level low nearby has weakened and allowed better outflow and lower shear over Trami. Banding features are becoming more prominent and the storm is developing a central dense overcast. Trami has been almost stationary over the last 12hrs but should swing west soon as the ridge to the north builds more strongly. Taiwan and Southeastern China are still in the firing line from Trami.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Trami is on the move after an erratic drift over the last 24 hours. The storm has also strengthened to 55kts. The storm is moving northwards but is soon expected to push westwards as ridging to the north gains influence. Trami should become a typhoon in the next day as shear remains low to moderate, and sea temps warm along track.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

The combination of Tropical Storm Trami and the seasonal monsoon has unleashed torrential rainfall on parts of the northern Philippines since Sunday. Rainfall has totaled more than 19 inches in Sangley Point, Philippines, while the capital city of Manila has reported more than 14 inches of rain causing widespread flooding problems.
 
The flooding was so bad in and around Manila that the financial markets for the country were shut down on Monday. Government offices, schools, universities and many businesses were also forced to close. As of Monday afternoon, local time, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reported three deaths from the heavy rainfall. Several people have been reported missing while at least 11 have been hospitalized with various injuries. Nearly 100,000 people have been directly affected by the flooding rainfall thus far. Many roadways remain closed due to the flooding while several flights have been canceled.
 
Tropical Storm Trami will slowly move to the northwest and then west over the next couple of days resulting in a track near Taiwan. Unfortunately, this track will likely continue enhance monsoonal rainfall across the northwest Philippines, including areas already suffering severe flooding problems. Additional heavy rainfall will be possible through the middle of the week leading to more flooding problems across the region.

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/northern-philippines-manila-fl/16781031

 

http://youtu.be/dQ4MDMyi2ts

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Trami is on the verge of becoming a typhoon. The storm has developed a decent central dense overcast with strong monsoonal banding to the south, which is accounting for the flooding rains across the Philippines as Coast's post describes. Winds are currently at 60kts according to JTWC. Trami has now turned west and is closing in on Taiwan. Trami should become a minimal typhoon prior to landfall just over 12 hours time.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Trami is now a typhoon, with winds of 65kts. The typhoon retains a solid central dense overcast with impressive banding. Trami's motion has wobbled a bit over the the last 12 hours, but the typhoon is most definitely heading west now. The northward wobbles mean that landfall is no longer expected in Taiwan and Trami should pass just to the north. However, this doesn't make a huge amount of difference to Taiwan as the Trami will still bring dangerous flooding rains here. What it does mean however, is Trami is likely to be stronger now than orginally forecast at second landfall, on China.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

An eye has become apparent in the central dense overcast of Trami. Winds have increased to 70kts. Trami is racing westwards towards landfall in Southeastern China, which will occur tonight. Heavy rains are spreading inland across Southeast China, but have been affecting Taiwan all day, with the strong bands on the south side of Trami providing drenching rains.

post-1820-0-37745100-1377107815_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Severe Tropical Storm Trami struck a heavily populated area of northern Taiwan on Wednesday afternoon before making landfall again along the Chinese coast Wednesday evening. At 10:30 p.m. EDT (0230 GMT), the Central Weather Bureau said the center of the storm was located near Sanming, Fujian, within mainland China. Trami was packing maximum wind speeds of 67 mph, and a central minimum pressure of 975 millibars.
 
Posted Image
Enhanced infrared satellite imagery of Typhoon Trami over China on August 21, 2013.
 
Earlier this week, Trami wreaked havoc in the Philippine capital of Manila and in outlying regions, leaving 15 dead, 41 injured and affecting more than 1 million people as floodwaters swamped wide swathes of the densely-populated region. President Benigno Aquino III visited emergency shelters to distribute food packs and cheer up thousands of displaced villagers. In Taiwan, the storm had dumped 12 inches of rain on Taipei by nightfall Wednesday, and close to 20 inches in mountainous areas of northwestern Taiwan. With heavy rains expected to continue through most of Thursday, those totals could easily double.
 
Amid the downpour, a landslide closed the only road to a remote mountain community in Hsinchu county, trapping 70 residents, though authorities said no one was in danger and crews were working to redress the situation. Other landslides were reported north of Taipei and in the central part of the island. Late Tuesday, government officials ordered schools and offices in Taipei and in some surrounding regions to close because of safety concerns. They also suspended service on the island's high speed rail system, which links Taipei to the southern city of Kaohsiung.
 
Taiwan's National Fire Agency reported only one injury from the storm, a 33-year-old woman whose motorbike flipped over after hitting a pothole in the Taipei district of Neihu. The military evacuated more than 1,000 residents from an outlying island believed to be threatened by the storm, as well as 200 residents from the mountain community of Alishan, near Taiwan's geographical center.

 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/typhoon-trami-slams-taiwan-20130821

 

 

http://youtu.be/g9weicld1m4

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

There's going to be quite a lot of cleaning up to do after Trami it seems, a lot of flooding in the Philippines, Taiwan and China. Sad to hear about the deaths too.

 

Trami actually peaked just before landfall at 75kts. The storm is now moving inland across southeast China and weakening. Torrential rains are still falling through a large portion of southeast China, and a convective band in the system's southeast is still dumping very heavy rainfall across Taiwan. These rains will only very slowly ease as Trami moves further inland and continues to weaken.

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