west pacific Tropical Depression 13 W

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 13W has formed, nearly 100 miles east-northeastwards of Okinawa. The small depression has winds of 25kts, and some deep convection covering the LLCC. 13W is forecast to move westwards initially, followed by a southwards turn east of Taiwan as the system begins a Fujiwara Intercast with Tropical Depression 12W, currently to the southwest. As 13W is the smaller of the two systems, it is expected to be absorbed by TD 12W. The resultant system is then expected to reach typhoon strength whilst closing in on northern Taiwan. Some stregthening is expected of 13W over the coming days, but as it gets dragged towards 12W, shear could cause it to weaken. An alternative scenario is that 13W could remain far enough away from 12W for absorption not to take place, but this is not considered a likely scenario at this time.

 

Even though the JTWC forecast shows 13W reaching typhoon strength by day 5, this strength is expected to be achieved after the two systems have merged into one.

 

13W's track:

 

 

 

12W's track:

 

 

Edited August 17, 2013 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

13W has opened up into a wave and no longer has a closed circulation and therefore no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. 13W fast forward speed to the west may be partly to blame for this. 13W's remnants are now forecast to continue to move briskly westwards towards China over the next day or so, and interact minimally, if at all, with the larger TD 12W to the south.

[Coast]

 

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 171800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WAS LOCATED 

NEAR 27.9N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 109 NM NORTHWESTWARD OF KADENA AB, 

AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 

HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 

GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 172100) FOR THE FINAL 

WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

      (2) AT 180000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WAS LOCATED 

NEAR 20.3N 127.3E, APPROXIMATELY 373 NM SOUTHWARD OF KADENA AB, AND 

HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 

KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

 

 

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