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September forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition


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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

 

I don't expect sub 13C for the month, however it's unlikely to stay too far above average for long enough for anything over 14C to been that likely either.

Agreed with the models firming on a warm up next week sub 12 is unlikley. Stil looks like 13.0-13.8 is most likely range.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

A minimum of 8.4C and maxima of just below 13C likely, we should see a drop to 13.6C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

 

13.5C to the 18th (10.8]

13.4C to the 19th (11.6)

13.4C to the 20th (13.5)

13.4C to the 21st (13.1)

13.5C to the 22nd (15.6)

13.6C to the 23rd (16.5)

13.7C to the 24th (16.2)

 

A finish of between 13 and 14C looks most likely before corrections, but anything from 12.5C to 14.5C is still in with a shout I'd say.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Have to admit that while this warm spell will help my own prediction of 14C i was looking forward to returning back to below average in style 

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

A minimum of 8.4C and maxima of just below 13C likely, we should see a drop to 13.6C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

 

13.5C to the 18th (10.8]

13.4C to the 19th (11.6)

13.4C to the 20th (13.5)

13.4C to the 21st (13.1)

13.5C to the 22nd (15.6)

13.6C to the 23rd (16.5)

13.7C to the 24th (16.2)

 

A finish of between 13 and 14C looks most likely before corrections, but anything from 12.5C to 14.5C is still in with a shout I'd say.

14.5  would need probably an average CET for the last 9 days to be 17 which would be a record for that period. (1895 got 16.9 for the last 9 days of Sept)

 

However that said looking at this evenings runs I certainly think that 14.3 isn't out of the question where it seems unlikely a couple of days ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

I think cooler nights in the CET zone will stop it passing 14c, so I think sub 14c is 80-20 over 14c+.

Here in Durham, we finally fell below average yesterday, and the coldest day of September so far should pull the average down 0.2 or 0.3c depending on the morning low.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Looking at the 18z, you couldn't rule out sub 13 categorically. Seems the weekend heat has been downgraded and shortened a little.

 

However it's only one run and a lot of the period to the end of the month is still la la land when it comes to NWP output

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Durham had a cold day yesterday and its 5c this morning, the average is now at 12.85c (-0.25c), might go cooler tonight before some warm days, but below average is now slight favourite here.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.1C that's -0.6c below normal. Should only be small falls from now until this weekend when it warms up a lot once more. Whether it's enough to cancel this weeks cold spell out will be in the details when get closer to the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

The 06gfs, should it come off exactly, would give us 13.7 or 13.8 before adjustments. Some very mild nights right at the end however, which probably happen, so there is probably more downside risk to that figure.

 

Although the upcoming period looks very pleasant there are probably only 2 days where the CET will be greater than 15C as cooler nights at the start and end of the settled spell may offset the warmth of the days.

 

Outside chance of tomorrow giving us a sub 10C CET day - depends on how low we get tonight and where temps in the zone get supressed tomorrow. If the warmth pushes east a little, we could easily be well over 10C

Edited by Stu_London
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Had the 16th been sub 10C (and it might be after adjustments as it is currently 10.1C), it would have been the earliest sub 10C day since 1986. 1986 ended up at 11.3C and is the 15th coldest September in the series.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Off topic, but does anyone know exactly how the CET is calculated these days, i.e. which stations are used, etc? I'm just wondering why things often get adjusted after the month ends.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

0.4c below the average here in Durham to the 18th. Minima have been on average, whilst maxima have been 0.8c below average.

The first 9 days averaged 14.1c, the last 9 have averaged just 11.3c.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.9C. It's now a question how much damage the warm spell will do before it turns cool again if GFS FI is right. Should drop to 12.8C by tomorrow morning. I'm going to guess around 13.2 to 13.4C for Sheffield. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

Off topic, but does anyone know exactly how the CET is calculated these days, i.e. which stations are used, etc? I'm just wondering why things often get adjusted after the month ends.

 

My understanding is they use the sites as stated here.

http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.ac.uk__ATOM__dataent_CET

 

 Rothamsted, Malvern, Squires Gate and Stonyhurst. There is links that will take you to map locations from that website. I don't know where they store the raw data exactly.

 

The method they use is  the average of ((Squires Gate + stonyhurst)/2 + Malvern + Rothamsted)/3 .

 

For estimating it via met forecasts for five days, I use that method, but applied to Stations the Met publishes forecasts for that most closely approximate those locations. I use ((Crosby + Blackburn)/2 + Great Malvern + Northolt)/3 seems to be a fairly good approximation.

 

For Longer dated estimates I just used the Oxfordshire ensembles, as I don't think the spatial averaging is worth it given the forecast error at that range, and it seems a reasonable proxy most of the time, unless there is a sharp temperature gradient across the CET area.

Edited by SomeLikeItHot
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

With a minimum of 9.0C, and maxima of around 18C likely, we will probably remain on 13.5C on tomorrows update (or 13.6 if maxima are much above 18C).

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET around

13.5C to the 20th (13.1)

13.6C to the 21st (15.0)

13.8C to the 22nd (18.4)

14.0C to the 23rd (19.0)

14.2C to the 24th (18.5)

14.3C to the 25th (17.0)

14.4C to the 26th (15.5)

 

A reasonable chance of ending up above the 81-10 average of 14.0C, and odds in favour of beating the 61-90 average of 13.6C at this stage. The 5 days from the 22nd to the 26th are forecast to average around 17.6C, impressive for late September.

Might some daily records be on the cards?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

With a minimum of 9.0C, and maxima of around 18C likely, we will probably remain on 13.5C on tomorrows update (or 13.6 if maxima are much above 18C).

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET around

13.5C to the 20th (13.1)

13.6C to the 21st (15.0)

13.8C to the 22nd (18.4)

14.0C to the 23rd (19.0)

14.2C to the 24th (18.5)

14.3C to the 25th (17.0)

14.4C to the 26th (15.5)

 

A reasonable chance of ending up above the 81-10 average of 14.0C, and odds in favour of beating the 61-90 average of 13.6C at this stage. The 5 days from the 22nd to the 26th are forecast to average around 17.6C, impressive for late September.

Might some daily records be on the cards?

 

To think that a few days ago a CET over 14C was looking unlikely.  Things change quckly!

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Great, just when I thought that we were looking at a below average month it all changes. I was hoping we would go sub 13C but that's not going to happen now.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Great, just when I thought that we were looking at a below average month it all changes. I was hoping we would go sub 13C but that's not going to happen now.

 

Yep, a disappointment.  I thought we were going to return to our nice run of below average months!  Perhaps next month?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

 Hi guys (paticularly Roger and the updater of the series)

 

I will be away from saturday for 2 weeks so I want to put a place holder in for next Month (OCT).

In case I do not get back intime to enter can I go for a fairly normal 10.6C as a place holder?.

 

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Yep, a disappointment. I thought we were going to return to our nice run of below average months! Perhaps next month?

Here's hoping. If we saw daily records broken it would be a real shame.
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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

With a minimum of 9.0C, and maxima of around 18C likely, we will probably remain on 13.5C on tomorrows update (or 13.6 if maxima are much above 18C).

After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET around

13.5C to the 20th (13.1)

13.6C to the 21st (15.0)

13.8C to the 22nd (18.4)

14.0C to the 23rd (19.0)

14.2C to the 24th (18.5)

14.3C to the 25th (17.0)

14.4C to the 26th (15.5)

 

A reasonable chance of ending up above the 81-10 average of 14.0C, and odds in favour of beating the 61-90 average of 13.6C at this stage. The 5 days from the 22nd to the 26th are forecast to average around 17.6C, impressive for late September.

Might some daily records be on the cards?

 

 

Been out today so I am late to update but that is much higher figures that The Met is forecasting to the 23rd

 

They have max today around 16.5

 

giving.

 

19th 13.5 (12.75)

20th 13.4 (12.3)

21st 13.4 (13.6)

22nd 13.6 (16.3)

23rd 13.7 (16.4)

 

GFS 0z ensemble mean then would give something like

 

24th 13.8 (17.0)

25th 13.9 (14.5)

26th 13.9 (13.25)

Then falling with the last few days near 12 to

13.6 on the 30th.

 

Still an impressive set of rises over the last couple of days. Will be interesting to see where the next days runs take us.  

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Apart from insanely mild months like April and November 2011 and July 2006 I also hate months like this and February 2012 where one model teases us with a potent cold spell/cooldown whilst another dashes our hopes with blowtorch warmth for the same period.

Edited by Craig Evans
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