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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

I don't remember Japan and New Zealand ever having ridiculous earthquakes before, I stand corrected but also wasn't that 5.9 one we had rather big, yes there is a faultline running just to the West of Birmingham but it remained dormant for 1000s of years before that.

 

oh, they've had the odd one here and there......

 

japan- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Japan

 

new zealand- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquakes_in_New_Zealand

 

"Earthquakes in New Zealand are due to the country being part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, which is geologically active. About 20,000 earthquakes, most of them minor, are recorded each year.[1] About 200 of these are strong enough to be felt.[2] As a result, New Zealand has very stringent building regulations."

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Why are snow fans bothered about updates such as this? Even in the most mild of winters there are still a couple of good snow events and as far as I'm concerned, the winter doesn't need to be constantly absolutely freezing, yet very dry to get that? Give me an above average winter with 2 or 3 72 hour cold snaps that give me a foot of snow in each. Save on your bills, but still have a couple of fun days. Perfect?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

oh, they've had the odd one here and there......

 

japan- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Japan

 

new zealand- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquakes_in_New_Zealand

 

oh, they've had the odd one here and there......

 

japan- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Japan

 

new zealand- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquakes_in_New_Zealand

 

"Earthquakes in New Zealand are due to the country being part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, which is geologically active. About 20,000 earthquakes, most of them minor, are recorded each year.[1] About 200 of these are strong enough to be felt.[2] As a result, New Zealand has very stringent building regulations."

 

"Earthquakes in New Zealand are due to the country being part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, which is geologically active. About 20,000 earthquakes, most of them minor, are recorded each year.[1] About 200 of these are strong enough to be felt.[2] As a result, New Zealand has very stringent building regulations."

 

Stand corrected on Japan, thanks. how come we don't get any really bad ones and would that one we had back in the early noughties have killed people if we have had third world building structure standards?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

theres a couple of theories I've heard about that

 

1.  first theory is that we are seeing an increase in size, intensity and frequency

 

2. second theory is that there isn't anything unusual its just the fact they have killed so many people and the world is taking notice and the bigger earthquakes are being caused due to them being set in motion by the first one that then passed energy to the rest where the next weakest ruptured and the process goes on which means the bigger earthquakes come in groups

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Why are snow fans bothered about updates such as this? Even in the most mild of winters there are still a couple of good snow events and as far as I'm concerned, the winter doesn't need to be constantly absolutely freezing, yet very dry to get that? Give me an above average winter with 2 or 3 72 hour cold snaps that give me a foot of snow in each. Save on your bills, but still have a couple of fun days. Perfect?

 

Yes and wasn't feb 91 a +AO, +NAO setup as well?, its just I suppose that persistent Northern blocking increases chances that's all.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Stand corrected on Japan, thanks. how come we don't get any really bad ones and would that one we had back in the early noughties have killed people if we have had third world building structure standards?

 

well we're not on the edge of a tectonic plate and if i remember correctly, each level on the richter scale is 10x more powerful than the last. therefore a 6.9 would be 10x more powerful than the 5.9 you mention

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

well we're not on the edge of a tectonic plate and if i remember correctly, each level on the richter scale is 10x more powerful than the last. therefore a 6.9 would be 10x more powerful than the 5.9 you mention

 

 

Yes, I remember learning that at school, couldn't remember the exact maths, I have heard of 6's in some really dodgy places structural wise, where people were killed cant remember where.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Stand corrected on Japan, thanks. how come we don't get any really bad ones and would that one we had back in the early noughties have killed people if we have had third world building structure standards?

 

 

we don't get any big earthquakes as we don't have any real fault zones just a few stray cracks that can cause earthquakes the big ones are saved for strike slip faults or subduction faults strike slip is the san andreas fault in California the biggest you could ever prob get from them is around an 8.0 and subduction zones like japan, Indonesia, US pacific north west, Alaska and even a small one off the north coast of Haiti can produce up to 9.5 but that all depends on the length of the fault that has ruptured.

 

I say 9.5 that is the biggest recorded in chile but you might find they could reach more maybe even a 10.0

well we're not on the edge of a tectonic plate and if i remember correctly, each level on the richter scale is 10x more powerful than the last. therefore a 6.9 would be 10x more powerful than the 5.9 you mention

 

 

it might be each is 30x greater

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

we don't get any big earthquakes as we don't have any real fault zones just a few stray cracks that can cause earthquakes the big ones are saved for strike slip faults or subduction faults strike slip is the san andreas fault in California the biggest you could ever prob get from them is around an 8.0 and subduction zones like japan, Indonesia, US pacific north west, Alaska and even a small one off the north coast of Haiti can produce up to 9.5 but that all depends on the length of the fault that has ruptured.

 

Could we develop a real big faultline or is it set in stone that we wont get a big earthquake in my lifetime.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

Could we develop a real big faultline or is it set in stone that we wont get a big earthquake in my lifetime.

 

"set in stone" see what you did there? lol

 

we could if you live for a couple of million years!

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Could we develop a real big faultline or is it set in stone that we wont get a big earthquake in my lifetime.

 

 

defo set in stone we wont see any big earthquakes for many thousands of years as the only big ones possible without a fault are rebound earthquakes there the earth rebounds from being pinned down by being under ice sheets from an ice age

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Yes but it is as far as they will go at this stage. As some of the US guys are saying, teleconnections do favour a +ve NAO. And although you can't sum up 62 days weather with one chart, we know that that means topplers at best.

 

We'll see Ian, we'll see. I personally think a -AO is likely this winter with periods of -NAO too.

 

In fact, I'm not even sure a mild, zonal November is as dead a cert as some are making out.

 

Oh and another important point....they make it clear that the expected November forecast tips the scales towards above average for that period. Dec and Jan could be average or just below, dependent on the strength of the Nov anomaly!

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

 

it might be each is 30x greater

 just to correct us both on that,

 

from wiki- "An earthquake that measures 5.0 on the Richter scale has a shaking amplitude 10 times larger than one that measures 4.0, and corresponds to a 31.6 times larger release of energy"

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

dear god I watch too much DISCOVERY and EDEN and that Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

We'll see Ian, we'll see. I personally think a -AO is likely this winter with periods of -NAO too.

 

In fact, I'm not even sure a mild, zonal November is as dead a cert as some are making out.

 

I did have a feeling that a cold spell was possible in the last third of November, but any slight warming at the 30 hpa level now likely to be swamped by the Vortex intensification occurring in the upper strat unless some seriously quick stonking wave breaking gets going.

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

dear god I watch too much DISCOVERY and EDEN and that Posted Image

 

lol, we better shut up about earthquakes now, before we get an 'off topic' slap on the wrist! Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

And so it begins... I tend to see the winter season as running from Nov - March inclusive and we are close now. Plus IB is around so you know a mild winter spell is imminent - and I think he may have used the Z word at least half a dozen times in as many posts or less, so you know the fun and games have started!

 

Westerlies for now for sure. Statements or models showing 3 month averages a total waste of time. Specifics beyond 14 days? Signals are contradictory. Good snow cover and a not disastrous atlantic SST profile suggesting chances of high pressure but we are in a wQBO and have a very active sun at the moment.  I have come to see 2 factors in particular as crucial. The first is indeed the sun - not scientifically proven I know, but my eyes over many years tell me that every time the sun fires up we get a good run of westerlies and high pressure cells in this part of the world fade away. Who knows what the sun is going to do this year... We are around a solar maximum even in this much discussed trend towards a possible Dalton type scenario, so if high solar activity is sustained for a long period then I think winter is going to struggle to produce arctic or siberian shots. The second is the stratosphere - huge credit to Chio and others for opening our eyes on this one... and Chio is hinting at a decent chance of a SSW in the second half of winter.

 

So all snow lovers dont panic. If a SSW occurs in Jan/Feb then chances of cold shots increase. And personally I would rather see the sun active now in November than have it fire up in January. I would guess that it wont sustain these high levels for a weeks on end, at least not judging by the last few years anyway, so at timely dip in activity in Dec setting us up for Jan would be good.

 

Conclusion? Average, possibly mild, Nov and Dec, but I can see things getting more interesting in Jan/Feb if we get a SSW and solar activity heads downwards once again. In that context atlantic SSTs and siberian snow cover will aid blocking. However an SSW is not a given... and the sun may choose to bubble away for most of the winter season. If that happens then this will be a disappointing winter.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

And so it begins... I tend to see the winter season as running from Nov - March inclusive and we are close now. Plus IB is around so you know a mild winter spell is imminent - and I think he may have used the Z word at least half a dozen times in as many posts or less, so you know the fun and games have started!

 

Westerlies for now for sure. Statements or models showing 3 month averages a total waste of time. Specifics beyond 14 days? Signals are contradictory. Good snow cover and a not disastrous atlantic SST profile suggesting chances of high pressure but we are in a wQBO and have a very active sun at the moment.  I have come to see 2 factors in particular as crucial. The first is indeed the sun - not scientifically proven I know, but my eyes over many years tell me that every time the sun fires up we get a good run of westerlies and high pressure cells in this part of the world fade away. Who knows what the sun is going to do this year... We are around a solar maximum even in this much discussed trend towards a possible Dalton type scenario, so if high solar activity is sustained for a long period then I think winter is going to struggle to produce arctic or siberian shots. The second is the stratosphere - huge credit to Chio and others for opening our eyes on this one... and Chio is hinting at a decent chance of a SSW in the second half of winter.

 

So all snow lovers dont panic. If a SSW occurs in Jan/Feb then chances of cold shots increase. And personally I would rather see the sun active now in November than have it fire up in January. I would guess that it wont sustain these high levels for a weeks on end, at least not judging by the last few years anyway, so at timely dip in activity in Dec setting us up for Jan would be good.

 

Conclusion? Average, possibly mild, Nov and Dec, but I can see things getting more interesting in Jan/Feb if we get a SSW and solar activity heads downwards once again. In that context atlantic SSTs and siberian snow cover will aid blocking. However an SSW is not a given... and the sun may choose to bubble away for most of the winter season. If that happens then this will be a disappointing winter season.

 

Can you post this into the new thread Catacol Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

PUB RUN has had a few tonight

 

post-18233-0-46229100-1383001229_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

People are writing winter off more than a month before it's started, the teleconnections can only tell us so much.

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