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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

Ok I am desperate for a little session like we had in 1987 with true blizzard style snow, closely followed by the epic Feb 1991. which i still managed somehow to get to my work experience despite the points freezing outside east croydon.

Nov 10 would be great but spread it right up to mid to late jan early feb. lock us in the freezer and dont let us out.

Honestly i have no clue i just watch the model discussions and listen to the experienced forecasters and never let the naysayers annoy you

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

I'm sticking to my earlier thoughts for now

 

December - slightly warmer than average

 

January - slightly cooler than average though some northern parts of England and western parts of Northern Ireland may come in at average

 

February - slightly cooler than average for Scotland and around average else where

 

As a whole I think temperatures this winter will come in around average for the United Kingdom it's likely to be the mildest winter since the winter of 2011 / 2012 but not as mild as 2007 / 08

 

For precipitation I think we will have a drier than average winter with precipitation slightly lower than normal for all but Ireland (all of) and maybe parts of Scotland where It could be average

 

I know its not technical I shall leave that to the more experienced folk

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

CFS v2 doesn't really offer much at the moment with temperature anomaly's average to slightly above across Europe

 

Posted Image

 

A closer look at the individual months shows December could come in warmer than average in the south

 

Posted Image

 

With Jan and Feb average

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

another possibility is average all winter

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The 3rd possibility is for temperatures in some southern parts to be above normal in December then average for the rest of winter

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

First time I've took a look at CFS for winter so I honestly don't know what its showed over the previous months its been in the winter period but for now on this update its not taking the cold route

 

Jamstec is slightly below average for temperatures eastern Europe looks quite warm!

 

Posted Image

 

With rainfall lower than average

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

CFS v2 doesn't really offer much at the moment with temperature anomaly's average across Europe

 

Posted Image

 

A closer look at the individual months shows December could come in warmer than average in the south

 

Posted Image

 

With Jan and Feb average

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

another possibility is average all winter

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The 3rd possibility is for temperatures in some southern parts to be above normal in December then average for the rest of winter

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

First time I've took a look at CFS for winter so I honestly don't know what its showed over the previous months its been in the winter period but for now on this update its not taking the cold route

 

Jamstec is also going the average route for temperatures

 

Posted Image

 

With rainfall lower than average

 

Posted Image

You need to follow the trends Gavin and not individual runs. The trend has remained consistent since May that high latitude blocking will be a major feature this coming winter, of course this trend could change to the above Lol.
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

CFS v2 doesn't really offer much at the moment with temperature anomaly's average across Europe

 

Posted Image

 

A closer look at the individual months shows December could come in warmer than average in the south

 

Posted Image

 

With Jan and Feb average

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

another possibility is average all winter

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

The 3rd possibility is for temperatures in some southern parts to be above normal in December then average for the rest of winter

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

First time I've took a look at CFS for winter so I honestly don't know what its showed over the previous months its been in the winter period but for now on this update its not taking the cold route

 

Jamstec is also going the average route for temperatures

 

Posted Image

 

With rainfall lower than average

 

Posted Image

 

That Jamstec pic you've posted is for SSTs and with lower than average SSTs around the UK and higher than average ones around Greenland, I'd suggest an E'ly or NE'ly influence for us.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

That Jamstec pic you've posted is for SSTs and with lower than average SSTs around the UK and higher than average ones around Greenland, I'd suggest an E'ly or NE'ly influence for us.

 

Thanks edited the post to put the correct one in

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

How many 'experts' got the summer right, then? Because, IMO, getting the upcoming winter correct will only count for anything if it follows a correct summer forecast...50% success is a wee bit similar to what chance would predict? 

 

Things would be even better, should it come following 3 successive, accurate seasonal predictions...Posted Image 

Edited by A Boy Named Sue
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

CFS shows a mixed bag for precipitation this winter though it does look like the west of England and Scotland could be in for a rather dry one at this stage

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

For February some southern and eastern parts see an increase in rainfall

 

Posted Image

 

Whilst the UK looks rather dry the same can't be said for Spain and Portugal......................

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

CFS shows a mixed bag for precipitation this winter though it does look like the west of England and Scotland could be in for a rather dry one at this stage

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

For February some southern and eastern parts see an increase in rainfall

 

Posted Image

 

Whilst the UK looks rather dry the same can't be said for Spain and Portugal......................

 

That's because the jet is digging down towards Africa. N'ly blocking once again shows up for January....

 

post-10987-0-65794500-1378132745_thumb.p

 

Corrr blimey that's some winter synoptic! Very Nov/Dec 2010, just a month later in the peak of winter.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

After quite some effort, found this on the MetO website,

 

post-5986-0-13872500-1378134349_thumb.pnpost-5986-0-75416600-1378134363_thumb.pnpost-5986-0-07701000-1378134376_thumb.pn

 

Cool, normal precipitation, and, once again, Northern Blocking. These pictures come with the following disclaimer "Raw data are displayed for use by international meteorological centres. This does not constitute a seasonal forecast for a given location"

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

 

That's because the jet is digging down towards Africa. N'ly blocking once again shows up for January....

 

Posted ImageNorthern blocking.png

 

Corrr blimey that's some winter synoptic! Very Nov/Dec 2010, just a month later in the peak of winter.

I'll take that chart CC...Posted Image

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

My word CC, those anomaly charts have been showing synoptic porn for quite a while now, surprised images like that aren't against this site's T&Cs! 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

My word CC, those anomaly charts have been showing synoptic porn for quite a while now, surprised images like that aren't against this site's T&Cs! 

 

Interestingly the August update of the Glosea4 Metoffice model also placed HP in the same location.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Perfect combination would be Nov 05, Dec 10 and Jan 10 followed by a dry, chilly, sunny Feb and then March 12, April 07 and may 08.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl
  • Location: Newcastle under lyme 160m asl

A 2009/2010 winter would be better for me than a 2010 . I would love a winter of cold bouts rather than a big freeze . A white Christmas is a must for me

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Nov 10, Dec 10, Jan 10, Feb 08

November and December being cold and hopefully snowy is optimal, January as well, but towards mid-late Jan, I'm looking for warmth and sunshine again. Between Halloween and New Years Day is the main period that I'm interested during. Festivities and cold are a much better match than no festivities and longer days with cold- just doesn't feel as normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Nov 10, Dec 10, Jan 10, Feb 08

November and December being cold and hopefully snowy is optimal, January as well, but towards mid-late Jan, I'm looking for warmth and sunshine again. Between Halloween and New Years Day is the main period that I'm interested during. Festivities and cold are a much better match than no festivities and longer days with cold- just doesn't feel as normal.

 

Oh absolutely. Cold in Nov, Dec and Jan is welcomed by me- I prefer early season cold. Though late Jan/Feb cold can be brutal due to the depth of cold pooling out to our E and NE. I don't think we've seen a truly severe Feb for some time- the type of Feb with -15 to -20  uppers spilling westwards.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

That's because the jet is digging down towards Africa. N'ly blocking once again shows up for January....

 

Posted ImageNorthern blocking.png

 

Corrr blimey that's some winter synoptic! Very Nov/Dec 2010, just a month later in the peak of winter.

Ah CreweCold, as more of a storm fan, you do make me look forward and motivated to seeing some proper winter blizzards and heavy snowfall ! I can't wait for winter if I'm honest now, as I do love the brutal cold a lot. Discussing the incoming snow showers and streamers, maybe even blizzards Posted Image is a very exciting time for me and many others on here. Lets hope these charts mean well and come off, as I can honestly say that such synoptics would bury us and cut many communities off!!! Bring it on mother nature!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

From Matt Hugo on twitter

@MattHugo81: Both EC seasonal model and the EUROSIP model currently (Aug Update) highlighting northern blocking and a possible cold winter as per CFSv2.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

From Matt Hugo on twitter@MattHugo81: Both EC seasonal model and the EUROSIP model currently (Aug Update) highlighting northern blocking and a possible cold winter as per CFSv2.

 

Most if not all of the seasonal models seem to be highlighting the prospect of a fairly significant -AO over winter with quite a few (such as Glosea4, CFS and now those other Euro models) going for a -NAO. The Atlantic tripole (suggestive of a winter -NAO) was also there back in May.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

Something similar to December 1890, Jan 1795 and Feb 1947 will do me. Not much to ask for, is it?

Honestly, I wouldn't actually mind a largely average/mild winter provided we get a very cold 2 week period or so at some point. Last winter almost completely lacked deep cold, it was mostly just raw with low maxima. The minima were nothing to brag about.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Something similar to December 1890, Jan 1795 and Feb 1947 will do me. Not much to ask for, is it?Honestly, I wouldn't actually mind a largely average/mild winter provided we get a very cold 2 week period or so at some point. Last winter almost completely lacked deep cold, it was mostly just raw with low maxima. The minima were nothing to brag about.

 

Absolutely, I wouldn't class last winter as severe at all. The biggest deviation from the norm came in a spring month.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

Something similar to December 1890, Jan 1795 and Feb 1947 will do me. Not much to ask for, is it?Honestly, I wouldn't actually mind a largely average/mild winter provided we get a very cold 2 week period or so at some point.

Yeah I quite enjoyed 2011/2012 for the two week cold snap at the beginning of February, although it was a strange spell of weather which might have swayed my opinion a little further.
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Just a snow flurry and a bit of sleet would make me happy! :)

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

Absolutely, I wouldn't class last winter as severe at all. The biggest deviation from the norm came in a spring month.

I much prefer low minima to low maxima. Last winter was at times painful with so much stubborn cloud about, especially overnight. It never really went away, clear nights were few and far between.Jan 2010 was brilliant here. Minima approaching -18C a few miles down the road, -10C at midday. Felt very surreal in our normally mild country. It was like being in Canada or Scandinavia. Edited by March Blizzard
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