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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Overall I was quite happy with Winter 11-12 it was comfortably mild for the most part, apart from that chunk of February Posted Image but my over-riding memory of that Winter was the very mild Christmas day, think it was something like 13 degrees here. I remember having some family over for dinner and even with the door open for the smokers it did not feel cold at all for the time of year. I feel that Winter might be just a blip though Posted Image but who knows.

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

I vote for Lorenzo to take over Glacier Points crown for the winter. What do others think ?

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

I vote for Lorenzo to take over Glacier Points crown for the winter. What do others think ?

What about Chionomaniac?
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Overall I was quite happy with Winter 11-12 it was comfortably mild for the most part, apart from that chunk of February Posted Image but my over-riding memory of that Winter was the very mild Christmas day, think it was something like 13 degrees here. I remember having some family over for dinner and even with the door open for the smokers it did not feel cold at all for the time of year. I feel that Winter might be just a blip though Posted Image but who knows.

 

Yep I remember that winter as well it was a good one Christmas day hit 13.6c here in Darlo

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

CFS is now showing high pressure for December over the UK

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Both Jan and Feb aren't as cold either this morning compared to previous updates

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Northern blocking isn't a major player on this update either a wobble from CFS or a new trend

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Make of it what you will

 

Both EC seasonal model and the EUROSIP model currently (Aug Update) highlighting northern blocking and a possible cold winter as per CFSv2.

 

Posted by Mr Hugo on Twitter.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Make of it what you will

 

Both EC seasonal model and the EUROSIP model currently (Aug Update) highlighting northern blocking and a possible cold winter as per CFSv2.

 

Posted by Mr Hugo on Twitter.

 

CFS V2 I'm looking at isn't showing a cold winter its showing average so I'm not sure what Matt is looking at

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

 

Maybe he access to another version of CFS which we can see?

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

CFS V2 I'm looking at isn't showing a cold winter its showing average so I'm not sure what Matt is looking at

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Maybe he access to another version of CFS which we can see?

No, as he's going of the trend Gavin and not a sample shot taken in isolation on one day. Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

Im really hoping for a very easterly influenced winter. I live in North Somerset and last winter we had a few marginal rain turning to snow events from the south and south west. A lot of snow fell out the sky, but due to the lack of 'cold' temperatures most of this just melted even during the event. Over 10 cm of level snow was accumulated in the Januray event but temps were still around 1-2 degrees to a lot of snow was melting as it was falling. In March it was a different story, it was amazing to snow get blown around the roads in a strong freezing easterly wind. Rain to snow events just don't float my boat. So east east east please!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at the met office ensemble mean maps from last month the November to January precipitation is shown to be slightly below normal for the UK

 

Posted Image

 

850pha temperature is shown to range from average to possibly slightly above for Scotland and average to slightly below for England, wales and Ireland

 

Posted Image

 

Pressure is shown to be high across Greenland and this extends down into the UK hence the reason for below average rainfall

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I have to admit that I probably won't remember the winter of 2012/13 all that fondly in years to come, unlike those of 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11.  Yes, it was snowy at times, particularly the 13th-25th January, but it was often grey with a nagging E or SE wind, and many of the snow events were too marginal to add much on the ground.  The most memorable spell of that winter for me was the last week of January- the unexpected frontal snow event on the 25th which gave 12 centimetres, a bright snowy day on the 26th, and then some pretty disturbed westerlies during the last five days of the month which brought plenty of rain, scattered reports of thunder around the region, and generous amounts of sunshine.  However, if I'd lived in a location with a bit more altitude, I might have seen it differently, as many of the snow events were too marginal here to add much on the gruond while about 150m higher up they gave impressive aggregate depths.

 

My pick of the winters of the last 20 years would be 2009/10, in spite of February being a bit of a letdown compared with December and January.  I remember during late February, feeling that it was a shame that the winter had to come to an end (and it certainly did- I only registered one day with sleet in the entire spring quarter of 2010!)

 

2011/12?  I recall that December and January (especially January) were unusually sunny at times in the North East, and mid-January had an anticyclonic spell reminiscent of the 8-20 February 2008 one with stunning sunsets, although Christmas Day was one of the cloudier days.  February was notable for a couple of "ice-storms" but despite their novelty value I would have rather had the spell of snow cover that areas further south had.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Is it possible to access the model output discussion threads from a few years back? I'm particularly interested in finding the discussion for December 09 (which delivered a ton of snow IMBY).

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Is it possible to access the model output discussion threads from a few years back? I'm particularly interested in finding the discussion for December 09 (which delivered a ton of snow IMBY).

 

Late 2011 is the furthest you can go back http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/162-model-forum-archive/page-4?prune_day=100&sort_by=Z-A&sort_key=last_post&topicfilter=all

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Is it possible to access the model output discussion threads from a few years back? I'm particularly interested in finding the discussion for December 09 (which delivered a ton of snow IMBY).

If it's any consolation.... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php

 

And this goes back to 1871 Posted Image

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Is it possible to access the model output discussion threads from a few years back? I'm particularly interested in finding the discussion for December 09 (which delivered a ton of snow IMBY).

Here are winter forecasts for 2009-10

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57509-my-winter-forecast-2009-10/

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57593-backtracks-winter-forecast-09-10/

Discussion here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57495-winter-autumn-2009-10-part-4/

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

 

Thanks, these are great. Some amusing quotes in there:

 

"it seems nino is packing a punch, 

also losing the possible neg NAO and the jet also not playing ball.

i cant for no longer be optimistic i tried even if we still a few weeks from winter.

its all going very wrong indeed id say a certain someone may well be spot on."

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Posted
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]
  • Weather Preferences: Snow deprived so anything white.
  • Location: Gloucestershire [prev. Bucks and Devon]

I've been living in Plymouth for 5 years, and since i've been down here my folks and friends back in Bucks have had some stunningly good winters while i have had "plymouth winters" i'm about to move back to the home counties for a while so i would imagine this winter will be mild and Zonal as the snow and cold seems to avoid me. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Gavin, I think you're failing to understand how the CFS works. You're not going to get 100% of runs showing one particular outcome. You have to base it on percentages and which scenario appears the most often/repetitively.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I've been living in Plymouth for 5 years, and since i've been down here my folks and friends back in Bucks have had some stunningly good winters while i have had "plymouth winters" i'm about to move back to the home counties for a while so i would imagine this winter will be mild and Zonal as the snow and cold seems to avoid me. 

Sorry to hear  that mate - Plymouth really is a terrible place to live if you love snow and cold. Few places are worse on the mainland.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

wow 7 pages already!!...for my neck of the woods i would like to see a cold but snow less winter..the reason for this snow shoveliing is back breaking work and very time consuming..last thing you want after a day at work when you are tired...lots of sunshine and blue skies would be very nice indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

CFS shows a mixed bag for precipitation this winter though it does look like the west of England and Scotland could be in for a rather dry one at this stage

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

For February some southern and eastern parts see an increase in rainfall

 

Posted Image

 

Whilst the UK looks rather dry the same can't be said for Spain and Portugal......................

 

 

Looking at the key oddly enough above average precipitation seems to show up red, unless they've got the key the wrong way round?

I've been living in Plymouth for 5 years, and since i've been down here my folks and friends back in Bucks have had some stunningly good winters while i have had "plymouth winters" i'm about to move back to the home counties for a while so i would imagine this winter will be mild and Zonal as the snow and cold seems to avoid me. 

 

Sorry to hear  that mate - Plymouth really is a terrible place to live if you love snow and cold. Few places are worse on the mainland.

 

It seems even the Exeter area can be a world away from Plymouth at times, I remember in December 2010 when I had almost a foot of snow and temps down to -14c here in the valley (and -16.5c at Exeter Airport Met Office station which seems to be particularly frost prone), whereas I remember Plymouth not having that much snow at that time and just being more icy.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I thought the South West didn't to too bad last winter or December 2010 although it is usually more North Eastern parts of the SW that do best as it quickly can turn to rain down their.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

What about Chionomaniac?

 

Yes, IMO chiono could be a professional forecaster now, Certainly for the winter anyway.

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