Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the key oddly enough above average precipitation seems to show up red, unless they've got the key the wrong way round?

 

 

It seems even the Exeter area can be a world away from Plymouth at times, I remember in December 2010 when I had almost a foot of snow and temps down to -14c here in the valley (and -16.5c at Exeter Airport Met Office station which seems to be particularly frost prone), whereas I remember Plymouth not having that much snow at that time and just being more icy.

 

Yesterday it was showing below average rainfall I can assure you these charts self update unfortunately which means they change all the time even on here

[Paul]

The CFS anomaly charts really need to be held and averaged rather than being shown raw every day - the NCEP themselves hold for 7 days and present an average of those, we do similar as well. Looking at the daily output won't give you much info as they will always be very jumpy.  

[snowponies]

Feb 09 will always stand out the best regarding snow down here in Devon, we had over 1ft of snow and was trapt for 5 days! I also ran out of hay so had to drag hay in bin bags for over a mile 4 times a day so the horses had something to eat! We had so many near misses down here last year so hoping this winter we'll get a lovely channel low, mmmmmnn, I can only wish!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

The CFS anomaly charts really need to be held and averaged rather than being shown raw every day - the NCEP themselves hold for 7 days and present an average of those, we do similar as well. Looking at the daily output won't give you much info as they will always be very jumpy.  

 

Thank you Paul. Couldn't have put it better myself. It's what I've been trying to put across on several occasions.

 

Back to the N blocking on the latest update.

Edited September 3, 2013 by CreweCold

[mushymanrob]

someone is having you on the brakes on the cars do not freeze up!

 

are you sure?... id have thought that IF there was some moisture in there then its perfectly plausible for the to freeze solid.

[hillbilly]

are you sure?... id have thought that IF there was some moisture in there then its perfectly plausible for the to freeze solid.

How many motorists did you hear about having frozen brakes in the severe weather?...That is the answer!It is feasible with old drum brakes if you had just been through a big puddle or if you had a damaged handbrake cable that had let in water and frozen.Not all the cars parked on a forecourt!

[StretfordEnd1996]

once in a lifetime stuff??

1940,1947,1955,1963,1979,1981,1986,2010 are not once in a lifetime....we have just gone a couple of decades milder!

Sorry for the misunderstanding - I was referring to winters colder and snowier than 2010 (i.e the two big ones). 

Sorry for the misunderstanding! 

How many motorists did you hear about having frozen brakes in the severe weather?...That is the answer!It is feasible with old drum brakes if you had just been through a big puddle or if you had a damaged handbrake cable that had let in water and frozen.Not all the cars parked on a forecourt!

A car in need does have an advantage though in my opinion ... if the clutch is worn to bits and is slipping a lot it can be of an advantage in snow XD

That's through personal experience anyway XD

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

If you were faced with a winter with 2 average CET months and one with a large negative CET , which month would you choose? December a bit like 1890/1981/2010 but with a near nationwide White Christmas, a super cold Jan that topped Jan 2010 with the UK's first ever recorded -30C, or a Feb that outsnowed 1947? Personally I would take December this year as my wife is expecting in January! Normally I would choose January as it brightens up the post Christmas period!

Edited September 3, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[cheese]

If you were faced with a winter with 2 average CET months and one with a large negative CET , which month would you choose? December a bit like 1890/1981/2010 but with a near nationwide White Christmas, a super cold Jan that topped Jan 2010 with the UK's first ever recorded -30C, or a Feb that outsnowed 1947? Personally I would take December this year as my wife is expecting in January! Normally I would choose January as it brightens up the post Christmas period!

I'd probably take a large negative CET if it falls in February, because I would hate to have a cold December, only to be followed by boring mild gunk for the next two months..

Edited September 3, 2013 by cheese

[Relativistic]

If you were faced with a winter with 2 average CET months and one with a large negative CET , which month would you choose? December a bit like 1890/1981/2010 but with a near nationwide White Christmas, a super cold Jan that topped Jan 2010 with the UK's first ever recorded -30C, or a Feb that outsnowed 1947? Personally I would take December this year as my wife is expecting in January! Normally I would choose January as it brightens up the post Christmas period!

January for the -30C. History also tells us that the coldest January's are far colder than the coldest December's and February's. Plus the days are still not too dissimilar from December in terms of length, so it's pretty dark as well.Having said that a February 1947 would be amazing for my location. Edited September 3, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[Summer Sun]

I'd probably take a large negative CET if it falls in February, because I would hate to have a cold December, only to be followed by boring mild gunk for the next two months..

 

That's pretty much what happened in 2010 bitter for part of November and all of December but a steady improvement for January and February

[cheese]

That's pretty much what happened in 2010 bitter for part of November and all of December but a steady improvement for January and February

Improvement?! It was the most deflating experience of my life!

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, what an improvement, how exciting.

[March Blizzard]

It shows how bitter January can be when the coldest one on record (1795) is 2.3C colder than the coldest December (1890). February does a little better with a difference of 1.2C (1947). There are 5 colder January's than the coldest Feb.

[Milhouse]

Overall I was quite happy with Winter 11-12 it was comfortably mild for the most part, apart from that chunk of February  but my over-riding memory of that Winter was the very mild Christmas day, think it was something like 13 degrees here. I remember having some family over for dinner and even with the door open for the smokers it did not feel cold at all for the time of year. I feel that Winter might be just a blip though  but who knows.

 

It was a very sunny winter here with all months having above average sunshine. Talking of above average sunshine, i would love a repeat of February 2008. December 2001 sounds fantastic too with abundant sunshine, record breaking for some parts. slightly colder than average so i would imagine there would be some festive frosty mornings.

[cheese]

It shows how bitter January can be when the coldest one on record (1795) is 2.3C colder than the coldest December (1890). February does a little better with a difference of 1.2C (1947). There are 5 colder January's than the coldest Feb.

Yeah, January is the King of Cold.

It was a very sunny winter here with all months having above average sunshine. Talking of above average sunshine, i would love a repeat of February 2008. December 2001 sounds fantastic too with abundant sunshine, record breaking for some parts. slightly colder than average so i would imagine there would be some festive frosty mornings.

Feb 2008 wasn't terrible - cool nights, mild days, we even had an ice day with freezing fog and a bit of snow. But it was quite uneventful for the most part.

[Summer Sun]

Isn't February the coldest month statistically even though it has the most day light of the 3 winter months?

 

Around 8h 45m mins in the NE at the start rising to around 10h 40 mins at the end

[lorenzo]

I vote for Lorenzo to take over Glacier Points crown for the winter. What do others think ?

 

Thanks Cleve Hill for the sentiment, if I ever get near where GPs ability with the atmosphere I well let you know.  Way too much respect for Stewart to begin to even think about filling those shoes, not withstanding my brain only holds about 5% of the knowledge his does... There are many few posters on here who can work up Winter a whole lot better than I. Would really recommend the Strat. thread for Winter if you want something to get your head into.

 

 

CFS and Matt throwing it into the mix with the ECM is an interesting one. The ECM seasonal if I recall correctly was a bit of a wildcard throughout last Autumn / Winter whereas the monthly ones did really well, wonder how much of that blocking signal is derived from the anomalous Greenland SSts ? Maybe a CFS blocking watch thread is in order !

Edited September 3, 2013 by lorenzo

[feb1991blizzard]

Thanks Cleve Hill for the sentiment, if I ever get near where GPs ability with the atmosphere I well let you know.  Way too much respect for Stewart to begin to even think about filling those shoes, not withstanding my brain only holds about 5% of the knowledge his does... There are many few posters on here who can work up Winter a whole lot better than I. Would really recommend the Strat. thread for Winter if you want something to get your head into.

 

 

 

I think a little bit more than 5% is warranted there

 

 

I think you are doing yourself down a little bit there, I really like your input in strat thread and technical thread.

[March Blizzard]

Isn't February the coldest month statistically even though it has the most day light of the 3 winter months? Around 8h 45m mins in the NE at the start rising to around 10h 40 mins at the end

Feb is usually neck and neck with January in terms of cold, on average. However, I'm pretty certain January is the coldest month when averaged over the entire CET series.

[cheese]

Isn't February the coldest month statistically even though it has the most day light of the 3 winter months?

 

Around 8h 45m mins in the NE at the start rising to around 10h 40 mins at the end

February has the coldest average minimums for many areas, including here, but the average high is the highest of all winter months. Overall, January is the coldest month still, although in some places, December is now the coldest, because of December 2010!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like a +QBO this winter. It'd be interesting if someone could confirm for me (with stats) that although SSWs are correlated to a -QBO, some of the harshest historic winter periods have occurred during a +QBO?

[Yarmy]

Well I eventually found the model threads for Dec 2009 (they were in the Weather DIscussion and Chat section then). DIdn't learn much though as it was just thousands of pages of people saying Wow and hardly anyone posting a chart. :-)

However, I did notice that despite no SSW the Strat was anomalously warm in November.

Edited September 3, 2013 by Yarmy

[Cheshire Freeze]

December '81, Feb '86 and Dec/Jan '09 occurred with a +QBO from my brief bit of research I've done. With a weak Enso state I think the state of the strat will be a major player this year. Ideally we'd want it to be running above average. With this in mind I don't think we're going to have any idea until November time. Despite what long range modelling is showing us at present.

 

Remember, we don't need 1050mb highs to bring us the goods as January this year showed. Just enough of a deflection S of the jet (forced by even weak height rises in the right places) and a cold pool backing west.

Edited September 3, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

December '81, Feb '86 and Dec/Jan '09 occurred with a +QBO from my brief bit of research I've done. With a weak Enso state I think the state of the strat will be a major player this year. Ideally we'd want it to be running above average. With this in mind I don't think we're going to have any idea until November time. Despite what long range modelling is showing us at present.

 

I think any year we need it to be running above average.