Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

well the PUB RUN was looking good there till we hit FI.

 

should add for new comers the 18z is called the PUB RUN cos its like your little alchoholic friend that tends to wander off and do its own thing.

 

think the ECM solution looks quite possible after watching the GFS come more towards.

 

 

TBH though, I wont be convinced until the met office text forecast becomes more favourable.

[Buriedundersnow]

TBH though, I wont be convinced until the met office text forecast becomes more favourable.

 

 

hopefully over the next few days it might change if the models keep going the way they are

[feb1991blizzard]

hopefully over the next few days it might change if the models keep going the way they are

 

 

Hopefully, ECM mean not tragic by any means.

[bluearmy]

I wonder if commenting on current nwp runs should be on the autumn thread. they can only be of value in here for their influence on other parts of the NH re snow melt/advance/strat profiling. if we spend the next eight weeks following wintry sypnotics in each gfs run on here, the thread will become near impossible to navigate.

Eg. This mornings gem run brings an ex TD ne towards us in fi. That could be a pattern changer and affect snow cover to our ne and beyond. Fortunately its in fi.

[chionomaniac]

I wonder if commenting on current nwp runs should be on the autumn thread. they can only be of value in here for their influence on other parts of the NH re snow melt/advance/strat profiling. if we spend the next eight weeks following wintry sypnotics in each gfs run on here, the thread will become near impossible to navigate.Eg. This mornings gem run brings an ex TD ne towards us in fi. That could be a pattern changer and affect snow cover to our ne and beyond. Fortunately its in fi.

Yes, I agree with this

 

Please keep this thread for upcoming winter discussion only. Any off topic posts will be deleted or removed. If you would like to discuss the GFS/ECM autumnal wintry potential then please post in the Autumn thread.

 

Thanks.

[Buriedundersnow]

saw this posted by MATT HUGO on twitter looks pretty impressive forecast for a -AO this winter

 

[Mark Neal.]

saw this posted by MATT HUGO on twitter looks pretty impressive forecast for a -AO this winter

 

BWTFve-CMAAxub_.png

Impressive! That's 4 daily runs CFS Runs averaged over the time period between 30th Sep-10th October, for those who are struggling to work out.

Edited October 11, 2013 by Mark N

[Buriedundersnow]

Yes, I agree with this

 

Please keep this thread for upcoming winter discussion only. Any off topic posts will be deleted or removed. If you would like to discuss the GFS/ECM autumnal wintry potential then please post in the Autumn thread.

 

Thanks.

 

 

sorry I thought this was the right place to post it as there was some signs of possible wintry weather on the back of charts coming up on models.

 

will try and post in the right place in future.

[chionomaniac]

sorry I thought this was the right place to post it as there was some signs of possible wintry weather on the back of charts coming up on models.

 

will try and post in the right place in future.

 

That chart is fine for here.

 

To clarify, wintry (and any other type of weather) potential for this winter is fine in this thread, however, wintry potential for Autumn should be in the autumn thread.

[bluearmy]

saw this posted by MATT HUGO on twitter looks pretty impressive forecast for a -AO this winter

 

BWTFve-CMAAxub_.png

 

i think that looks a bit too far north and could leave the uk at risk of being split cold/mild. of course, as a general guide, the -AO signature gives nw europe a decent chance in the raffle. the opposite sig would give us little chance.

[UV-RAY]

i think that looks a bit too far north and could leave the uk at risk of being split cold/mild. of course, as a general guide, the -AO signature gives nw europe a decent chance in the raffle. the opposite sig would give us little chance.

As a look of the 2007/08 winter where the cold air hung around the far North of England and into Scotland, whilst those South of that saw plenty of rain with average temps for most.

[Bristawl Si]

i think that looks a bit too far north and could leave the uk at risk of being split cold/mild. of course

So basically, normal Winter weather for the UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

i think that looks a bit too far north and could leave the uk at risk of being split cold/mild. of course, as a general guide, the -AO signature gives nw europe a decent chance in the raffle. the opposite sig would give us little chance.

 

I personally would rather take a chance with any high being a bit far North and any trough being centred in Southern half of UK, and risk a bit of marginality, rather than way down south on the continent and up here have few showers penetrate the pennines but then just dry but very cold after that, of course for Britain as a whole and certainly your location, its definitely too far North, people from different locations would have different preferences (as ever), that's assuming of course that those 500mb heights would correspond with an actual synoptic chart at a given timeframe at surface level.

[Don]

As a look of the 2007/08 winter where the cold air hung around the far North of England and into Scotland, whilst those South of that saw plenty of rain with average temps for most.

 

 

Winter 2007/08 certainly wasn't 'average' temperature wise in the south, it was mild overall with only December bringing close to average temperatures.  An almost snow less winter for much of the south.  There was some wintry weather at times during March and April, but obviously that's Spring.

[Skullzrulerz]

My hopes for a cold winter are crashing down.

[Gaz1985]

I could be wrong but I have a feeling this Winter will be like 2011-12 (a huge amount of expectation before but only really a week in February was freezing)

[cheese]

I could be wrong but I have a feeling this Winter will be like 2011-12 (a huge amount of expectation before but only really a week in February was freezing)

Possibly, possibly not. Nobody knows.

Edited October 11, 2013 by cheese

[Gaz1985]

Possibly, possibly not. Nobody knows.

 

Indeed we'll just have to wait and see....

[Gavin Hannah]

I would say we could end up with signals closely matching what we had in the run up to winter 2010/09 for winter 13. If we do, we'd be extremly unlucky to end up with a winter of damp mildness.

Seasons are a changing and as ecer, the UK is at the mercy of what the weather gods throw our way, so, everyone, start doin your snow dance and sacrafice the pet rabbit. (just kidding about the rabbit lol).

[Captain Shortwave]

My hopes for a cold winter are crashing down.

It's the 11th October today, not February

Plenty of time for things to chop and change and for toys to a launched like confetti at any failed easterly or snow a event which happens to miss your house by 2 miles.

Edited October 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

It's the 11th October today, not February

Plenty of time for things to chop and change and for toys to a launched like confetti at any failed easterly or snow a event which happens to miss your house by 2 miles.

Indeed Captain...Seven weeks before winter even starts! 

[snowblues]

Hoping for this current weather pattern further down the line, down in the south east it's rained most of the night and very windy heavy rain all afternoon blowing in from the east.Not sure what the rain totals are but a good dumping of snow would be sitting out there now 7 or 8 weeks down the line.Not to long to wait now!

[John Badrick]

You are joking right? It is still October, I haven't fallen asleep and woken up in mid February 2014 have I??

Edited October 11, 2013 by John Badrick

[johnholmes]

My hopes for a cold winter are crashing down.

 

Is that a serious comment, if so, mind giving your reasons please?

[Buriedundersnow]

daily express at it again tomorrow lets just hope this time they are right as I would love to see some record breaking snow next month