Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Cloud 10]

does anyone else read between the lines of that meto statement.  i'm thinking they're leaning towards cold for this winter.  'there is absolutely no certainty about what weather the uk will see over the winter period'.  yeah - we all know that.  i'd love to know what stewart's analogues etc are showing him !

 

Probably not much at the moment!

 

Daily Climate Composites

 

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=2074

[Paul]

Freezing winter headlines today - what's it all about?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Freezing winter headlines today - what's it all about?

 

 

 

Just wondering Paul, will there be a video forecast this year for winter?

[Skullzrulerz]

Looks like this winter may be ruined.

[feb1991blizzard]

Looks like this winter may be ruined.

 

Why?

[Skullzrulerz]

Why?

Looked at the cfs and looks like a mild/warm winter...

[cheese]

Looked at the cfs and looks like a mild/warm winter...

And? You can't take each run at face value. That is not the purpose of the model.

Edited October 12, 2013 by cheese

[feb1991blizzard]

Looked at the cfs and looks like a mild/warm winter...

 

So the next time it shows a brutal winter, which it has many a time over the last month or so, will that mean it looks like being a brutal winter?

[iand61]

Maybe Madden and the Express will be right or maybe they'll get it wrong on a Biblical scale and we'll end up with months of mild mush but TBH I would suspect somewhere very much in the middle will be the form horse.

One thing for sure though is that if the Express headline comes off anywhere near accurately then by next spring thousands will have died directly or indirectly as result of this record breaking winter.

Everything will be answered by April 2014.

Meanwhile it's a horrible day here.

Drizzle on and off throughout and only 10c.

[feb1991blizzard]

Maybe Madden and the Express will be right or maybe they'll get it wrong on a Biblical scale and we'll end up with months of mild mush but TBH I would suspect somewhere very much in the middle will be the form horse.One thing for sure though is that if the Express headline comes off anywhere near accurately then by next spring thousands will have died directly or indirectly as result of this record breaking winter.Everything will be answered by April 2014.Meanwhile it's a horrible day here.Drizzle on and off throughout and only 10c.

 

You could call people like me a very hurtful person then because I pray for a Madden winter, so you could say im wishing for people to be dead in a roundabout way, but my argument is that heat kills many more people in the world than cold and people say its ok to pray for that, I remember Ian fergusson last December saying how could anyone be celebrating THAT ECM when it would almost certainly result in death, yet he likes thunderstorms!! I know there was a thread on this a long while ago.

[Buriedundersnow]

Looked at the cfs and looks like a mild/warm winter...

 

and the CFS 12z looking better for cold

 

sea level pressure anomalies

 

 

2m temp anomalies

 

 

not sure about the temps as the charts to me look a little colder than the anomalies for jan,feb and march

 

remember these charts chop and change and u will only get an idea by averaging runs over a long period of time

[stewfox]

Given the Daily Express says on its front page, worse winter for decades.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436170/Worst-winter-for-decades-Record-breaking-snow-predicted-for-November

 

I am looking forward to tomorrows Daily Mail whos heading I believe will be 2014 will be the coldest spring in 300 years

 

Time to set up the 2014 Spring Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread ??  

[Summer Sun]

Netweather's long range model is back to showing a fairly mild December with temperatures is some places 1c above normal

 

January and February look pretty close to normal for the bulk of England and Wales give or take 0.5c either way

 

 

There seems to be a fair few models going for a mild December along with some member on here

 

Strangely part of northern England and Northern Ireland have been shown to have average to above average temps all winter for a number of updates now any ideas why this could be happening?

Edited October 12, 2013 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

^ Winter is over, there i said it!

[iand61]

You could call people like me a very hurtful person then because I pray for a Madden winter, so you could say im wishing for people to be dead in a roundabout way, but my argument is that heat kills many more people in the world than cold and people say its ok to pray for that, I remember Ian fergusson last December saying how could anyone be celebrating THAT ECM when it would almost certainly result in death, yet he likes thunderstorms!! I know there was a thread on this a long while ago.

I certainly wouldn't call you a bad person for wanting a Madden winter, i'd like to witness it myself but my point is that it would be a killer.Although I agree with you that probably more people die from the heat than the cold it is a much less costly exercise to be comfortable in a warm environment than it is in cold.Usually shade and plenty of water will do and in the UK these are both cheap and easy to get hold off but trying to keep warm in bitter cold conditions is, at best a costly exercise and often beyond the means of some people.Add to that, slips and falls occur more in icy conditions as do road accidents and the balance tips towards a lot of deaths and pressure on the NHS much more in a cold winter than it would in a hot summer.Part of me still wants it to come off though although I think the chances are slim.

[Skullzrulerz]

I certainly wouldn't call you a bad person for wanting a Madden winter, i'd like to witness it myself but my point is that it would be a killer.Although I agree with you that probably more people die from the heat than the cold it is a much less costly exercise to be comfortable in a warm environment than it is in cold.Usually shade and plenty of water will do and in the UK these are both cheap and easy to get hold off but trying to keep warm in bitter cold conditions is, at best a costly exercise and often beyond the means of some people.Add to that, slips and falls occur more in icy conditions as do road accidents and the balance tips towards a lot of deaths and pressure on the NHS much more in a cold winter than it would in a hot summer.Part of me still wants it to come off though although I think the chances are slim.

james madden is Accuracy is very good at points he known that a mild spell was going to happen next week.We have to wait and see we could see a winter of are lifetime+ or just a boring old hot winter.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I certainly wouldn't call you a bad person for wanting a Madden winter, i'd like to witness it myself but my point is that it would be a killer.

Although I agree with you that probably more people die from the heat than the cold it is a much less costly exercise to be comfortable in a warm environment than it is in cold.

Usually shade and plenty of water will do and in the UK these are both cheap and easy to get hold off but trying to keep warm in bitter cold conditions is, at best a costly exercise and often beyond the means of some people.

Add to that, slips and falls occur more in icy conditions as do road accidents and the balance tips towards a lot of deaths and pressure on the NHS much more in a cold winter than it would in a hot summer.

Part of me still wants it to come off though although I think the chances are slim.

 

I think that no matter what the weather is, or how bad it is, as long as you take / make the necessary precautions and where the appropriate attire you should (more often than not) be absolutely fine. Too many people in this country where ridiculously inadequate footwear when it is cold, snowy and icy and then wonder why they slip over and break their bones! There really is no excuse as there are plenty of places where you can buy cheap walking shoes these days and get those pull on ice spikes etc. 

 

There you, that's my rant over...!!! Bar humbug and all that!  

[Weather-history]

 

 

I look at those and it shows me that computer generated graphics do not understand logic especially the December and February.

[Skullzrulerz]

On a note I think there MAYBE ok I said M A Y B E That james madden could be right.lets see whats happen and in april 2014 we can if he was right or wrong.

[feb1991blizzard]

I certainly wouldn't call you a bad person for wanting a Madden winter, i'd like to witness it myself but my point is that it would be a killer.Although I agree with you that probably more people die from the heat than the cold it is a much less costly exercise to be comfortable in a warm environment than it is in cold.Usually shade and plenty of water will do and in the UK these are both cheap and easy to get hold off but trying to keep warm in bitter cold conditions is, at best a costly exercise and often beyond the means of some people.Add to that, slips and falls occur more in icy conditions as do road accidents and the balance tips towards a lot of deaths and pressure on the NHS much more in a cold winter than it would in a hot summer.Part of me still wants it to come off though although I think the chances are slim.

 

There is no need for anyone to die because of cold in this country IMO, its usually either because of elderly people slipping while out, we need to get them reading Stewart Ramplings forecasts more so they can budget and prepare so they don't have to go out when it hits, also they should put the heating on when they need it, they will not get sent to prison or cut off if they cannot quite afford the bill, and the reason why is this, they wouldn't dare, the daily mail would have a field day, imagine this headline 'War veteran prosecuted for non payment of electric bill while yob gets caution for ABH', trust me they wouldn't dare, the other way people die of course is messing about on frozen rivers in marginal freezing temperatures - ie - ice nowhere near thick enough to be sure of not falling through, and people driving like rally drivers in ice except they don't appreciate that they haven't the skill to drive like Colin McRae.

[Summer Sun]

I look at those and it shows me that computer generated graphics do not understand logic especially the December and February.

 

How do you mean?

[Evening thunder]

I look at those and it shows me that computer generated graphics do not understand logic especially the December and February.

 

I remember for summer those monthly charts were showing widespread anomalies of +5C over the sea to the north of the UK and around the Shetland Isles, which seemed a bit impossible to me considering we haven't recorded such summer anomalies on land in the UK before.

 

So there was something wrong with them or the average used to calculate anomalies then, not sure if there still is, but having these warm/cold anomaly pools in the same places each month seems slightly suspicious

[Weather-history]

How do you mean?

December has -1C anomaly over Western Scotland and +1C over parts of Northern Ireland. How is that possible? Also February has -1C anomaly over Western Scotland and Southern Irish Sea but +1C over Northern Ireland and Northern England. How is that possible?

[Summer Sun]

December has -1C anomaly over Western Scotland and +1C over parts of Northern Ireland. How is that possible? Also February has -1C anomaly over Western Scotland and Southern Irish Sea but +1C over Northern Ireland and Northern England. How is that possible?

 

I see what you mean now, yes its had that on a few runs maybe an error with the data?