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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread


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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I see what you mean now, yes its had that on a few runs maybe an error with the data?

I think i the same error is on the GLOSEA model as it shows positive  anomalies over Greenland yet the temp anomalies are at odds with these.

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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

Madden is as nutty as a fruit cake along with Corbyn. A couple of winters back 2011/12

I think it was when his name was first mentioned on the forums he was talking of bitterly

cold and snowy weather for that December. Two weeks of mild weather later and not a

hint of any severe weather on the NWP charts for the rest of the month and neither was

there Madden was back saying we would continue to see heavy snowfalls and bitter

winter weather. As I said nutty as a fruit cake.

Long range forecasts are very hit and miss as we all know but having a understanding

about all the different indicies that work together to make up our weather one can make

an informative punt that can still of course go askew.

Any long range forcast from Mr Madden should be treated as nothing more than a

WAG (wild a-- guess)  even if it does turn out to be nearer the mark than others.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The express ran a number of mega freeze stories in 2011 only for a mild winter to occur

 

-20C to hit Britain

 

James Madden, long-range forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during November, December, and January. There could also be frequent and significant snow across northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. “I also expect November, December, January, and Feb­ruary to feature largely below average temperatures across many parts of the UK. It is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken,†he said.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/276202/20C-to-hit-Britain

 

Britain faces an early big freeze

 

The early onset of winter was predicted by experts at Exacta Weather. Long-range forecaster James Madden said on its website: “As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. “I expect December, January, and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to ­January across many parts of the UK.â€

 

The UK and Ireland would be hit by ­“prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions as cold easterlies or north-easterlies developâ€. Mr Madden said: “Huge swirly low-­pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air.†He warned of “frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy falls of snow from blizzard-like conditionsâ€, with Scotland and the North braced for the worst of the weather.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/272457/Britain-faces-an-early-big-freeze

 

Thats just 2 of them

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

James Madden, from the above post,

 

Quote-

 

“Huge swirly low-­pressure systems"

 

he really knows his stuff doesn't he.........

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

 Cairngorms look quite wintry today.

 

 

 

 

 

post-12319-0-78820000-1381607448_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

Back when I used to know next nothing about weather patterns and what not I was willing Madden a shot, after I came on here though and started to learn more it didn't really take long for me to see right through him, I thought Vogan may had a bit more about him but after his  fail of a White Christmas prediction and his subsequent backtrack it sadly became clear that he wasn't any better, the fact that he also now charges for those guess-casts just tops it off.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Back when I used to know next nothing about weather patterns and what not I was willing Madden a shot, after I came on here though and started to learn more it didn't really take long for me to see right through him, I thought Vogan may had a bit more about him but after his  fail of a White Christmas prediction and his subsequent backtrack it sadly became clear that he wasn't any better, the fact that he also now charges for those guess-casts just tops it off.

 

From what I gather Mark Vogan was / is a lorry driver

 

I wonder if anyone on here has actually paid to view one of the seasonal forecast's by James Madden and or Mark Vogan

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

On a note I think there MAYBE ok I said M A Y B E That james madden could be right.lets see whats happen and in april 2014 we can if he was right or wrong.

 

can we just drop all references to JM. he clearly know NOTHING worthwhile about meterology and quite frankly this forum does not need to waste space discussing him. (skulltheruler - we dont have to wait till april - his ideas are completely ridiculous (unless he's making a forecast for svaalbard rather than the uk)

 

wrt to vogan - i would give him the time of day as he tries to back up his thoughts with science but unfortunately, he allows his obvious cold bias to take over, rendering his 'forecasts' very questionable.  

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

can we just drop all references to JM. he clearly know NOTHING worthwhile about meterology and quite frankly this forum does not need to waste space discussing him. (skulltheruler - we dont have to wait till april - his ideas are completely ridiculous (unless he's making a forecast for svaalbard rather than the uk)

You Could be right JM maybe Know nothing but NO ONE KNOWS NOTHING whats going to happen this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

 

Vogan just as bad, fantasy forecasts

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Matt Hugo has had his say on the Express

 

NB: I'll add James Madden to that 'ignore, ignore, ignore' comment as well. Another ridiculous Express story.

Last tweet on this but the issue is always evident; lack of scientific evidence for these newspaper stories & sensationalism

 

And Ian Fergusson who works for BBC weather in Bristol and Fergie weather on here has had his say

 

 

if that same title repeatedly headlined spurious, pseudoscience health scare stories based on quackery, they'd get censored.

We'll have a record breaking mild winter now then ;)" frankly nothing can be discounted at this range: but that's no headline

Are these guys serious? pic.twitter.com/89HQWfPHmy" refer to earlier tweets

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Matt Hugo has had his say on the Express

 

 

And Ian Fergusson who works for BBC weather in Bristol and Fergie weather on here has had his say

 

Mind you fergie hates people who like brutal winters to be fair, yes I agree that Madden is talking s***, but according to fergie, you are unwelcome on here if you like runs like THAT ECM to verify because it would distress others, in that case, we should have about 4 people on line in winter just like summer then.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

I'm not sure on this but didn't he predict record cold in February this year and a sub zero CET? And also temperatures 3C below average for the first third of October when in fact they were 3C above? I might be wrong though. I don't know how successful his forecasting is and these may have been one offs among more successful predictions.

 

RJS is going to publish his final Winter 2013/14 forecast on the 20th of this month.  He says he is going to review his data again, so his final Winter forecast could be a bit different.  That said, I doubt it will be substantially different to his current thoughts.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Madden is only as worthwhile as anyone who posts 'I have a hunch....', 'I just feel that...' or 'I predict that....' on here, that is to say, no worth at all.Anyone who tells people that they have a good idea as to what will happen in winter until we actually get there isn't being straight with you, and that goes for anyone who can back it up with science. A strat warming here, a firing up of the jet there, it all changes.

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted (edited) · Hidden by Chris K, October 12, 2013 - duplicate
Hidden by Chris K, October 12, 2013 - duplicate

For anyone interested in anything of the wintry variety over the next few months I suggest you avoid looking at the below image:Posted Image

One chart, from one run dated 2 weeks away? How does this determine a pattern setup lasting the whole winter exactly? Posted Image

 

I can see why some may not like the sight of a polar vortex positioning itself over Greenland but it is autumn...

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

For anyone interested in anything of the wintry variety over the next few months I suggest you avoid looking at the below image:Posted Image

How's a GFS 18z FI chart a precursor to the weather for the next few months?
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

For anyone interested in anything of the wintry variety over the next few months I suggest you avoid looking at the below image:Posted Image

 

 

 

 

One chart, from one run on the GFS, dated for 2 weeks away? How does this determine a pattern setup lasting the whole winter exactly? Posted Image

 

I can see why some may not like the sight of a polar vortex positioning itself over Greenland but it is autumn...

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

 

 

 

One chart, from one run on the GFS, dated for 2 weeks away? How does this determine a pattern setup lasting the whole winter exactly? Posted Image

 

I can see why some may not like the sight of a polar vortex positioning itself over Greenland but it is autumn...

 

Exactly, it is one run. It can be like that all it likes through Autumn!! Winter however, it will all change, watch the vortex break apart if one even formes!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire

 

 

 

One chart, from one run on the GFS, dated for 2 weeks away? How does this determine a pattern setup lasting the whole winter exactly? Posted Image

 

I can see why some may not like the sight of a polar vortex positioning itself over Greenland but it is autumn...

 

To be fair I really don't see much difference between that and someone else cherry picking a random chart showing good Cold synoptics. it's just for fun. nothing more than that.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

To be fair I really don't see much difference between that and someone else cherry picking a random chart showing good Cold synoptics. it's just for fun. nothing more than that.

Sorry I didn't mean to sound so critical. I just didn't interpret the post as you intended. It read to me as if you were saying the chart was going to reflect the weather months in advance. You are right in saying that it isnt different to someone else posting one chart from one run showing cold patterns. Just as likely/unlikely to verify that far out.
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Let's not forget October and November 2009 - increasingly wet and very mild at first. Then look what happened as the Atlantic gave way to blocking in December. Best not get too worried about the PV being over Greenland in late October. I'd rather that than undercutting lows with beautiful snowy synoptics too early in the season.

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