Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Gavin Hannah]

Indeed, but rarely from the East in my neck of the woods.

 

 

Same here, Easterlies never make it to my end. Western central belt. It all gets dumped over the moors and I end up with bugger all lol.

[UV-RAY]

The CFS model seems to be churning out more less cold solutions for the coming winter than previously, with January still looking like the favourite for a lengthy cold spell from mid month onwards. I would say by my reckoning it now favours a 55%-45% in favour of a colder than average winter overall, one thing of concern from a coldies perspective is the warm Atlantic with little signs of a Tripole developing as of yet.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[feb1991blizzard]

The CFS model seems to be turning out more less cold solutions for the coming winter than previously, with January still looking like the favourite for a lengthy cold spell from mid month onwards. I would say by my reckoning it now favours a 55%-45% in favour of a colder than average winter overall, one thing of concern from a coldies perspective is the warm Atlantic with little signs of a Tripole developing as of yet.

 

I wouldn't like to call it yet but if you forced me to make a prediction right now I would go a little cold spell in Mid Nov then Dec slightly above average, Jan slightly above, Feb well below average.

[Summer Sun]

I wouldn't like to call it yet but if you forced me to make a prediction right now I would go a little cold spell in Mid Nov then Dec slightly above average, Jan slightly above, Feb well below average.

 

If we get a lot of westerlies this winter then your call wouldn't be far off IMO

[UV-RAY]

I wouldn't like to call it yet but if you forced me to make a prediction right now I would go a little cold spell in Mid Nov then Dec slightly above average, Jan slightly above, Feb well below average.

I hope not feb91, the last two so called cold February's weren't up to much round here, but if we can get a nice big fat Greenland High then it will be worth the wait, it's unlikely though with a west based QBO any heights would no doubt be over to our NE, unfortunately.

[picog]

I hope not feb91, the last two so called cold February's weren't up to much round here, but if we can get a nice big fat Greenland High then it will be worth the wait, it's unlikely though with a west based QBO any heights would no doubt be over to our NE, unfortunately.

Isn't that how winter 62/63 started — heights to the NE?

[Gavin Hannah]

The CFS model seems to be churning out more less cold solutions for the coming winter than previously, with January still looking like the favourite for a lengthy cold spell from mid month onwards. I would say by my reckoning it now favours a 55%-45% in favour of a colder than average winter overall, one thing of concern from a coldies perspective is the warm Atlantic with little signs of a Tripole developing as of yet.

 

As long as the Jet takes the energy from the Atlantic south, I will not complain.  If not, we could face the situation whereby cold sits off to our east and the Atlantic drives over us, bringing us months of rain.  

[Summer Sun]

British weather services initial Winter Planning Forecasts, both National and Regional will be issued by months end

 

To early for high confidence but the Nov armageddon touted in some quarters looks a little OTT....to say the least!

 

https://twitter.com/BritWeatherSvs

[feb1991blizzard]

I hope not feb91, the last two so called cold February's weren't up to much round here, but if we can get a nice big fat Greenland High then it will be worth the wait, it's unlikely though with a west based QBO any heights would no doubt be over to our NE, unfortunately.

 

I hope for a feb 91!!!!!!!!!.

 

That's where a tiny bit of difference in location can make all the difference with wishes because I will always gamble with a Scandinavian high, higher risk, higher quality threshold, but most rewarding if the perfect one comes off.

Edited October 15, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Isn't that how winter 62/63 started — heights to the NE?

 

looks more Greenland based to me.

 

[Summer Sun]

I hope for a feb 91!!!!!!!!!.

 

That's where a tiny bit of difference in location can make all the difference with wishes because I will always gamble with a Scandinavian high, higher risk, higher quality threshold, but most rewarding if the perfect one comes off.

 

Could you use a different text colour? that is very hard to read

[Yarmy]

Isn't that how winter 62/63 started — heights to the NE?

 

Yep.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's why I don't really take notice of any LRFs. The most you can hope for is that you have a decent cold pool to tap into and then the synoptics set themselves up favourably when the time comes. Nobody can do that at this range. Least of all the Complete Fairytale System.

 

Even the good models in the reliable timeframe had us sat under a Euro High for the foreseeable at the start of the month.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Yarmy

[feb1991blizzard]

Could you use a different text colour? that is very hard to read

 

Done.

[UV-RAY]

British weather services initial Winter Planning Forecasts, both National and Regional will be issued by months end

 

To early for high confidence but the Nov armageddon touted in some quarters looks a little OTT....to say the least!

 

https://twitter.com/BritWeatherSvs

 

 

British weather services initial Winter Planning Forecasts, both National and Regional will be issued by months end

 

To early for high confidence but the Nov armageddon touted in some quarters looks a little OTT....to say the least!

 

https://twitter.com/BritWeatherSvs

Lol, so  we could be looking at night time frost and a few isolated wintry showers then.

Could you use a different text colour? that is very hard to read

It's fine Gav as I don't like what it says.

[Summer Sun]

Done.

 

Thanks

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think, looking at the strat thread, that the general consensus is for mid-late winter cold (if any of course). However, I have a sneaking suspicion that December may actually throw a few surprises our way. In fact, I don't even think November is nailed on mild and wet at this stage. If you remember a couple of weeks ago I posted that I thought there would be a period of wet and potentially stormy weather before progressively colder through November? Well it looks like the first part of that scenario may be on its way...

 

 

The CFS for November isn't exactly inspiring

 

 

The NAO is as positive as you can get there.....with the jet pushed well north and European ridging. However, November and December are 2 months the model cannot seem to fathom. Up until a week or so ago a strong +ve anomaly was shown to the NE and occasionally to the NW for the month of November.

 

Personally I'd wait and see what the next Glosea4 model update has to say (due in the next couple of days) before making any firm utterances as to how Nov and Dec may pan out.

 

Edited October 15, 2013 by CreweCold

[be cause]

Could you use a different text colour? that is very hard to read

could you use a different text type or colour for your 'Darlington stats' line as it is annoyingly easy to read !

[feb1991blizzard]

I think, looking at the strat thread, that the general consensus is for mid-late winter cold (if any of course). However, I have a sneaking suspicion that December may actually throw a few surprises our way. In fact, I don't even think November is nailed on mild and wet at this stage. If you remember a couple of weeks ago I posted that I thought there would be a period of wet and potentially stormy weather before progressively colder through November? Well it looks like the first part of that scenario may be on its way...

 

 

The CFS for November isn't exactly inspiring

 

urgh.png

 

The NAO is as positive as you can get there.....with the jet pushed well north and European ridging. However, November and December are 2 months the model cannot seem to fathom. Up until a week or so ago a strong +ve anomaly was shown to the NE and occasionally to the NW for the month of November.

 

Personally I'd wait and see what the next Glosea4 model update has to say (due in the next couple of days) before making any firm utterances as to how Nov and Dec may pan out.

 

Yes its sods law that that the first part of your forecast will hit 100% on the heidke scale at over a month away, as good as any pro crewe!

[UV-RAY]

I think, looking at the strat thread, that the general consensus is for mid-late winter cold (if any of course). However, I have a sneaking suspicion that December may actually throw a few surprises our way. In fact, I don't even think November is nailed on mild and wet at this stage. If you remember a couple of weeks ago I posted that I thought there would be a period of wet and potentially stormy weather before progressively colder through November? Well it looks like the first part of that scenario may be on its way...

 

 

The CFS for November isn't exactly inspiring

 

urgh.png

 

The NAO is as positive as you can get there.....with the jet pushed well north and European ridging. However, November and December are 2 months the model cannot seem to fathom. Up until a week or so ago a strong +ve anomaly was shown to the NE and occasionally to the NW for the month of November.

 

Personally I'd wait and see what the next Glosea4 model update has to say (due in the next couple of days) before making any firm utterances as to how Nov and Dec may pan out.

My big concern is those temp profiles in the North Atlantic, yes there's time for further developments but as it stands Roger J Smiths call could be a very good one.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Bobafet]

My big concern is those temp profiles in the North Atlantic, yes there's time for further developments but as it stands Roger J Smiths call could be a very good one.

where abouts is Rogers Forecast?Thanks in advance. Edited October 15, 2013 by bobafet

[Summer Sun]

where abouts is Rogers Forecast?Thanks in advance.

 

Its here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2804532

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, I hope Rogers forecast doesn't come true, if it did, it would be a stinker.

[BornFromTheVoid]

As others may have noticed, there's been quite a change in the CFS charts for November in recent days.

 

 

An explanation for the chart is here

 

The 5 day mean has now dipped below 0 (indicating more low pressure to the north). The trend has gone much more strongly downward. A temporary blip or the beginning of a trend towards a more zonal November (which would certainly help with my November forecast!)?

[MR EXTREMES]

Isn't that how winter 62/63 started — heights to the NE?

if im right I think 63 winter was Greenland blocking infact Greenland through Iceland I believe,as for this winter for awhile things looked as if they might be heading down the right path but although not an 100% connection solar activity has risen dramatically and as has been suggested a west based QBO with signs of the vortex heading towards Greenland the most we could hope for is more of the same as whats coming in the next ten days.

 

a north arctic flow is something we can pin hopes on cold snaps rather than cold spells but nothing is certain in the world of weather but I did post my thoughts and my hopes are not high back then I got a little more excited seeing the growth in ice and snow across the northern hemisphere but that looks like it could take a dramatic dive in the next month or so.

 

but id love to be wrong. so I go average November above December average jan above feb and below march.

[johnholmes]

if im right I think 63 winter was Greenland blocking infact Greenland through Iceland I believe,as for this winter for awhile things looked as if they might be heading down the right path but although not an 100% connection solar activity has risen dramatically and as has been suggested a west based QBO with signs of the vortex heading towards Greenland the most we could hope for is more of the same as whats coming in the next ten days.

 

a north arctic flow is something we can pin hopes on cold snaps rather than cold spells but nothing is certain in the world of weather but I did post my thoughts and my hopes are not high back then I got a little more excited seeing the growth in ice and snow across the northern hemisphere but that looks like it could take a dramatic dive in the next month or so.

 

but id love to be wrong. so I go average November above December average jan above feb and below march.

 

 

to see what happened its easy, simply go to wetter and click on the past data, msl-500mb and 850mb temperatures day by day?

Not sure if Net Wx now have this facility as far back as then?