Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Weather Boy]

Without meaning to sound rude, could you please just stop posting individual CFS runs? It's so misleading to newer members, especially considering the individual outputs are so widely varied that they're not even worth glancing at.

 

Yes, my understanding is that they are effectively ensemble runs, but done on different days rather than at the same time.  They are therefore intended to be viewed as ensembles rather than actual forecasts.

 

Incidentally, following discussion of Russian snow and weather, I was interested to note that according to my paper, Moscow was just 1C cooler than London yesterday at midday.  A bit cooler, but no snow, according to the BBC 5-day forecast.  That info is about as useful as some of these pointers to winter - borderline meaningless!

[beng]

With the growth continuing at a rapid speed in the snow and ice charts I am begining to have the tingle of excitement about what is to come.

 

I still won't bother looking at anything beyond 7 days as it is changing on each run.

 

Actually I don't think the October snow (ignoring the sea ice) advance is that quick (below 2007 apparently), we just started October at a higher base this year - these guys have a good handle on it (warning - it's Italian - scroll down and you'll see a graph of the Snow Advance Index).  

 

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7364.150

 

Hopefully the second half of the month will produce an acceleration.

Edited October 16, 2013 by beng

[Summer Sun]

Roger J Smith updated his blog a few days back

 

Oh also, speaking of updates, I've been keeping an eye on developments for the winter and have not seen anything out of place yet from my theoretical framework, so will for the time being be continuing to suggest a somewhat milder winter than recent years possibly about like 2007-08 although with some potential for a good cold snap in mid-January.

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

[Jaffusmaximus]

Roger J Smith updated his blog a few days back

 

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

 

What location is RJS referring to as mild? West Canada or Europe?

[Gael_Force]

Actually I don't think the October snow (ignoring the sea ice) advance is that quick (below 2007 apparently), we just started October at a higher base this year - these guys have a good handle on it (warning - it's Italian - scroll down and you'll see a graph of the Snow Advance Index).  

 

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7364.150

 

Hopefully the second half of the month will produce an acceleration.

 

That graph is only up to the 13th of this month - all the actual measurements are above previous shown years. I'm assuming the green line is a projection. Since we don't know the theory or methodology, I would be wary of any conclusions drawn.

[Gaz1985]

Even at this early stage from what I can gather most of the reliable forecasters who don't go OTT are not going for a cold Winter, of course unlike James Madden!

 

I think this Winter will be very frustrating for coldies. Could be even milder than 2011-12.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Buriedundersnow]

Actually I don't think the October snow (ignoring the sea ice) advance is that quick (below 2007 apparently), we just started October at a higher base this year - these guys have a good handle on it (warning - it's Italian - scroll down and you'll see a graph of the Snow Advance Index).  

 

http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7364.150

 

Hopefully the second half of the month will produce an acceleration.

 

 

heres the charts for 2007 and this year for the 1st and up to the present date I think this year looks ahead of 2007 for snow advance in October

 

2007

 

 

2013

 

 

heres other years for reference

 

2008

 

 

2009

 

 

2010

 

 

2011

 

 

2012

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Summer Sun]

What location is RJS referring to as mild? West Canada or Europe?

 

UK

 

As far as I know

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

Even at this early stage from what I can gather most of the reliable forecasters who don't go OTT are not going for a cold Winter, of course unlike James Madden!

 

I think this Winter will be very frustrating for coldies. Could be even milder than 2011-12.

i strongly agree I think this winter is setting up against anything cold.

infact I think this winter will be the warmest since 2000

[Summer Sun]

Brian Gaze over at TWO has issued his initial winter thoughts

 

You can read the full initial thoughts here

Edited October 16, 2013 by Paul

[throwoff]

i strongly agree I think this winter is setting up against anything cold.

infact I think this winter will be the warmest since 2000

 

You can't seriously say this early that the winter is going to be warmer than any of the last 13?

 

I personally am seeing the opposite in the actual evidence as opposed to model runs, things are setting up as a colder one, although granted I don't expect it to be record breaking.

[mountain shadow]

Which weather Company is it that GP works for now?

 

Do they not produce forecasts like others?

 

Will miss his views this year for sure.

[Summer Sun]

Which weather Company is it that GP works for now?

 

Do they not produce forecasts like others?

 

Will miss his views this year for sure.

 

All we know is where ever he's gone he's unable to post here again

[johnholmes]

i strongly agree I think this winter is setting up against anything cold.

infact I think this winter will be the warmest since 2000

 

 

could we all have a glimpse of why you think that rc-please?

[Benvironment]

Whenever winter chooses to arrive......I'm now officially ready!Scottish Winter, do your worst!!

 

[Summer Sun]

The US government shut down has ended after 16 days so we should be able to access data from the USA again shortly

[Bristawl Si]

Brian Gaze over at TWO has issued his initial winter thoughts  

So, actually, his guesswork is about as confident as you or I.My key takeout on his summary is he isnt really sure.Best way of approaching the winter weatherwise is to just wait and see. That way your certain of 'forecasting' every day correctly.

[feb1991blizzard]

 

Brian Gaze over at TWO has issued his initial winter thoughts Seasonal forecast models A number of seasonal forecast models are available but the skill level they offer for this part of the world is low. In other words they aren't very accurate. However, I do use them as one of the inputs when making the winter forecast. Recently I've looked at the output from the International Research Institute (IRI), Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2), UK Met Office, JMA, Beijing, and Jamstec models.The model outputs are updated at regular intervals, and tend to be expressed in terms of anomalies for temperature, pressure and precipitation. I'll not not discuss them in detail, but on balance they seem to be suggesting a slightly increased chance of high latitude northern blocking this winter. This pattern would increase the chances of a colder than average winter in the UK and western Europe. Most of these models will update again at least once before the winter begins.Conclusion Brian nearly always forecasts an easterly in February. He did do well last December though by refusing to back the beasterly whereas over here even GP was all in.No strong signal, but possibly leaning towards a colder than average winter across all parts of the country. So what about winter 2013/14? Too early to make a call. At the present time things look quite balanced with very few strong signals. Despite this I'd be surprised if we have a very mild winter with only short cold snaps rather than at least one significant cold spell. We still seem to be in a period when cold winters occur relatively frequently and this is worth remembering. The coldest conditions could well come in February when the Atlantic naturally tends to become quieter and the chances of high pressure blocking over Scandinavia increases. If the cold does come then perhaps it will be mostly dry with less snow than we've seen at times in recent winters. To conclude the discussion I'd say that on balance the chances of a close to average or colder than average winter are slightly higher than the chances of a milder than average winter. However, remember that developments in the weather during the rest of autumn could well mean the TWO winter forecast will reach a significantly different conclusion. You can read the full initial thoughts here

 

 

Have you anything to add!!

[johnholmes]

I cannot understand why folk copy and paste the whole of a post and then add either nothing to it or very little. Why not simply link and allow the rest of us to decide whether we wish to read it?

[hillbilly]

Whenever winter chooses to arrive......I'm now officially ready!

Scottish Winter, do your worst!!

 

2013-10-16-16.13.50.jpg

are those supposed to be winter tyres?,maybe a little better than ordinary tyres,short of nobbles.I bought chains instead,they are great!

[Don]

i strongly agree I think this winter is setting up against anything cold.

infact I think this winter will be the warmest since 2000

 

Why?  That would mean a Winter milder than 2006/07 which was the 3rd warmest on record! 

 

FWIW after being fairly encouraged a couple of weeks ago that things were shaping up nicely for a colder than average Winter, my hunch (and it's just that) now is that we may be more likely to see an average or milder than average Winter.  However, that said, I don't feel that this Winter will be a stinker like those of 88/89 or 2006/07.  I'm not a long range forecaster, but I don't see anything to suggest that this coming Winter will be record breaking mild.

[beng]

That graph is only up to the 13th of this month - all the actual measurements are above previous shown years. I'm assuming the green line is a projection. Since we don't know the theory or methodology, I would be wary of any conclusions drawn.

 

The thing is though that the most important factor with the Snow Advance is the 'rate' of advance, and the rate is not overly special - at least up to the 13th (even if there's initially more snow on the ground than recent years). Still just about time for that to change though.

Edited October 16, 2013 by beng

[Buriedundersnow]

posted by matt hugo on twitter

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 6m

EC seasonal update for Oct indicates higher than average pressure to the N of the UK for Dec/Jan/Feb, a consistent signal from past months.

 

also

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 5m

EUROSIP showing something similar. Weak signal for higher than average pressure to the NW and lower to the S and SE. Blocked pattern.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Re TWO intial thoughts from bian GAZE...Sunspots are currently 3,  I don't see the recent overall solar activity level as moderate, levels are low and have been?

 

BFTP

[Don]

posted by matt hugo on twitter

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 6m

EC seasonal update for Oct indicates higher than average pressure to the N of the UK for Dec/Jan/Feb, a consistent signal from past months.

 

also

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo81 5m

EUROSIP showing something similar. Weak signal for higher than average pressure to the NW and lower to the S and SE. Blocked pattern.

 

Well, that's good news but if I remember correctly, the EC seasonal model didn't do that well in the run up to last Winter, pointing towards a mild pattern developing.  Obviously that's not to say that it will get this Winter's pattern wrong though.  Also encouraging that the EUROSIP model is pointing towards something similar.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Don