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Christmas 2013 Forecast


Stuart
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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    here we goPosted Image

     

    Early indications are suggesting the possibility of northern blocking again as we head into the festive season. This would give an increased risk of colder than average weather and that would obviously mean snow is a possibility. So the first Christmas 2013 forecast suggests a higher than average chance of a snow this year. Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%
    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

    Forecast issued
    Update 1, 02/09/2013

     

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

    Edited by Stuart
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    Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow

    here we go:rofl:

     

    Early indications are suggesting the possibility of northern blocking again as we head into the festive season. This would give an increased risk of colder than average weather and that would obviously mean snow is a possibility. So the first Christmas 2013 forecast suggests a higher than average chance of a snow this year. Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

    Forecast issued

    Update 1, 02/09/2013

     

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

    Nice to see the Christmas forecast! I'm amazed that a 20% chance of snow south of Yorkshire is a "higher than average chance". Just shows how slim our chances are in reality.
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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    blimy already.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Cold but dry conditions are expected in the south

    Snow is expected in Wales

    Snow is expected in the Midlands

    Snow is expected in the north

    Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland

    Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland

     

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

     

    Only update 1 so a long long time to go yet

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Love the way they use the word 'expected'...As if they have clue!Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    Bit far out for a Christmas forecast!

    Your right there !!!! So Jump on the gravy train, Like Tx1 said the only thing that's expected is sprouts and cold turkey Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    Posted Image

     

    Edited by Coast
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    Posted Image

     

    Not surprising that 2010 was the most snowest ! I do remember alot of the other years but even i my lifetime

    i never thought that we would of had something resembling Lapland around xmas time, It was just the best.

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    Speaking of white Christmas's and there general rarity. It kind of annoys me how some people especially older ones, try to claim they were the norm when they were younger. When truth is they have always been as rare as hens teeth in this part of the world. This either suggests a case of false memories or outright lies. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if in my 28 years so far, I have seen nearly as many white Christmas's as an 100 year old! All of these occuring I think after the turn of the new millenum. ie 2001 (falling briefly), 2004 (falling and settling), 2009 ( if you count odd patches) and 2010 (lying).

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

    Posted Image

     

    Not surprising that 2010 was the most snowest ! I do remember alot of the other years but even i my lifetime

    i never thought that we would of had something resembling Lapland around xmas time, It was just the best.    

     

    2009 was my fav snowed on xmas eve and xmas day night magical, and its gunna be the same this year Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    2009 was my fav snowed on xmas eve and xmas day night magical, and its gunna be the same this year Posted Image

    I put my hands up im one of the guy that runs around like a headless chicken on xmas eve trying to get the last presents together Posted Image

    But 2010 was different, Leading up to xmas that year with the cold and snow set in i made a point of getting all things done and dusted early,

    So on xmas eve me and the family went down the park slegding, it was like one of them scenes from the movies where its all christmassy.

    I Just hope in years to come the kids remember that christmas Posted Image

     

    Like you said "and its gunna be the same this year" Lets hope your right Posted Image

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

    I put my hands up im the guy that runs around like a headless chicken on xmas eve trying to get the last presents together Posted Image

     

    Sorry Dww, that's every bloke in the UK!!! Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    Sorry Dww, that's every bloke in the UK!!! Posted Image

    Your right !!! Its been edited Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Update 2

     

    The early September weather patterns have been much as expected and the medium range data suggests a changeable picture, so the second update makes makes no changes to the percentage chance of snow falling

    on Xmas day. Early indications suggest the possibility of northern blocking as we head into the festive season. This would give an increased risk of colder than average weather and that would obviously mean snow is a possibility. So the first Christmas 2013 forecast suggests a higher than average chance of a snow this year.

    Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%
    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

     

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

     

    The computer says [issued 09/09/2013 09:34:57]

     

    The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

    • [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. [*]Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales [*]Snow is expected in the Midlands [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north. [*]Cold but dry conditions are expected in Scotland [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Update 3

     

    The September continue to be much as expected but with the possibility of high pressure building later in the month. There are some suggestions that cyclonic conditions in September followed by fine and settled conditions later in the month and during the early part of October can be linked to colder than average winters. Given this and the suggestions of northern blocking developing early in the winter the third Christmas update slightly increases the chance of a white Christmas this year. Therefore, the third Christmas 2013 forecast again suggests a higher than average chance of a snow this year.

    Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

     

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%
    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%

     

    However the computer says it will be too warm for snow across the UK

     

    The computer says [issued 16/09/2013 07:15:44]

     

    The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

    Yea SS.....>  |         |

                        |  BIN |

                        |______|

    Edited by IBringTheHammer
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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    Cold chance reduced

     

    TheWeatherOutlook says

    The fourth update suggests a slightly reduced chance of a White Christmas. It looks as though high pressure will bring dry weather for a time during the latter part of September but more cyclonic conditions could develop in early October. There are some suggestions that Octobers which are dominated by cyclonic conditions are followed by milder winters. In addition the output from the long range forecast models looks quite mixed. Despite this the percentage forecast chances of a White Christmas are still above the average and there continues to be a signal in some of the output for high level blocking to develop later in the year.

    Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%
    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

    Forecast issued
    Update 4, 21/09/2013

    The computer says [issued 21/09/2013 16:01:17] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
    • Cold conditions in the Midlands are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
    • Snow is expected in Scotland
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    Christmas 2013: Snow chance?

     

    The fifth update suggests an increased chance of a White Christmas. Factors for this include:

    i)the early development of snow cover over parts of Russia
    ii) the continued signal from some of the long computer models for a cold pattern in December
    iii) most importantly the progression so far this autumn which has been quite similar to recent years which have had cold winters

    In summary the chances of snow this Christmas are thought to be above the long term average.

    Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%
    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 22%

    Forecast issued
    Update 5, 28/09/2013

    The computer says [issued 29/09/2013 07:13:21]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
    • Snow is expected in Wales
    • Snow is expected in the Midlands
    • Snow is expected in the north
    • Snow is expected in Scotland
    • Cold but dry conditions are expected in Northern Ireland

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    Christmas 2013: White in the south? 

     

    TheWeatherOutlook says

    A new month and time for the for the sixth update, so how are things panning out? High pressure has been persistent and stubborn during recent times with only short unsettled interludes. However, there are now signs of a change towards the middle of October with a good chance of a more zonal pattern becoming established close to the UK and possibly east across much of Europe. If this becomes established it could reduce the chances of early cold becoming established in eastern Europe. Partly due to this the sixth update reduces the chance of a White Christmas. However, they remain above the long term average, especially in the south because background signals still seem to favour high pressure blocking to the north of Britain and this usually means cold weather during the winter months.

    In summary the chances of snow this Christmas are thought to be above the long term average.

    Do remember that it's way too early to have any confidence in this. The forecast is for fun only so enjoy counting down the days and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks to see how things are panning out through the autumn. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 23%
    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 21%

    Forecast issued
    Update 6, 05/10/2013

    The computer says [issued 05/10/2013 20:45:50] The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
    • [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south. [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales. [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands. [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north. [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland. [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland. [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland. [*]It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

     

     

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

    Edited by Stuart
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    Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

    Christmas 2013: Green for most?

     

     

     

    TheWeatherOutlook says

    We're now into the second half of autumn so how are things panning out for the seventh Christmas weather update? In the last couple of weeks the weather has turned increasingly unsettled across the UK with temperatures mostly above average. It looks as though this pattern will persist for a while. Early signs of northern blocking have faded and it now looks as though pressure over the polar region will be low keeping the cold bottled up at high latitudes with mildish west or south westerly winds prevailing at mid latitudes in western Europe. This is a very typical pattern and once established it can become stable and persistent. That does not preclude things changing quickly, but partly due to this the seventh update reduces the chance of a White Christmas, particularly in the south.

    In summary the chances of snow this Christmas are thought to be close to the long term average.

    Do remember this forecast is for fun and it's way too early to have any confidence in it. Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates through the coming weeks. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

    Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
    North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%
    South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 12.5%

    Forecast issued
    Update 7, 19/10/2013

    The computer says [issued 20/10/2013 07:02:58]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
    • It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

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