Christmas 2013 Forecast

[Summer Sun]

The latest update was issued yesterday

 

Christmas 2013: Changeable weather?

 

The Weather Outlook says

 

High pressure continues to dominate the weather but it is looking as though a change to more mobile and unsettled conditions will develop in the next 10 days. This is likely to mean more mild weather in the south, but possibly lead to colder incursions in the north. Christmas day is now also in range of the GFS/GEFS computer model and it seems to be favouring quite an unsettled pattern. 

How does this impact the Xmas forecast?

The fourteenth update reduces the chance of a White Christmas marginally for the north and significantly for the south. With a more mobile pattern looking more likely nationwide the highest chance of brief colder incursions will be in the north with the south generally quite mild.

Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 18%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%

Forecast issued

Update 14, 09/12/2013

 

The computer says [issued 10/12/2013 07:00:42]

 

The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Wales.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Midlands.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Scotland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

Edited December 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[snow freak]

Basically rubbish.

[Paul]

Latest xmas forecast now online

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Stuart]

Christmas 2013: Probably unsettled

 

Mobile and unsettled weather is expected to last until Christmas at least. This is likely to mean more mild weather in the south, but possibly lead to colder incursions in the north. Christmas day is now also in range of the GFS/GEFS computer model and it seems to be favouring quite an unsettled pattern.

How does this impact the Xmas forecast?

The fifteenth update further reduces the chance of a White Christmas marginally for the north and significantly for the south. With a more mobile pattern looking more likely nationwide the highest chance of brief colder incursions will be in the north with the south generally quite mild. The weather could still spring a surprise but lying snow away from high ground in the north looks very unlikely. There is a higher - but still low - chance of snow being mixed into showers but not accumulating on the big day.

Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 16%

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 10%

Forecast issued

Update 15, 14/12/2013

The computer says [issued 14/12/2013 19:01:51]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the north.
• Snow is expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Republic of Ireland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast

[Coast]

Christmas Weather: Britain To Be Wet And Windy

 

Showers and blustery gales are on the cards for most of the country as Britons sit down to their Christmas dinner next week

 

Britons hoping for a white Christmas are likely to be disappointed as early forecasts suggest very wet and windy weather next week.

 

A European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model shows very low pressure over the UK on December 25. Forecasters remain cautious but admit the trends suggest a stormy festive holiday. Sky News weather producer Joanna Robinson said: "Christmas Day is still a long way off meteorologically speaking, but computer models are hinting that the unsettled theme will continue. "Some computer models show a deep area of low pressure moving in from the Atlantic on Christmas Day, bringing very wet and windy conditions. "There’s still time for that to change though, so it's worth keeping an eye on the forecast this week. "The unsettled conditions will mean that temperatures will remain around or above average, therefore snow is looking very unlikely at this point.â€

 

Forecasters MeteoGroup tweeted maps indicating low pressure and fairly mild temperatures for the time of year, while the ECMWF map was put out by MetDesk. Michael Dukes, MetDesk Director of Forecasting said: "It looks very much like it won’t be a white Christmas for most of us, with the possible exception of northern hills and mountains. "It's still a little too far off for much in the way of detail, but current indications are that the Christmas period will very unsettled and often wet/stormy with the risk of high winds as our weather continues to sweep in from the Atlantic.  "Temperatures will be mostly above average for the time of year, but it may be cold enough at times for some wet snow over northern hills and mountains. "We are watching that risk of high winds with interest, but we won’t be sure if it’s actually going to happen or how bad it will be until five or six days out. Heavy rain in the days before Christmas last year caused severe flooding in some areas.

 

 

 

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1183239/christmas-weather-britain-to-be-wet-and-windy

[Coast]

'It’s going to be a little up and down, with odd cold patches here and there, but in general the Christmas period should remain quite mild.’ Forecasters say Britain could be in for a stormy Christmas Day, however, with low atmospheric pressure bringing wind and rain. A model by European forecaster ECMWF shows extremely low pressure over the UK on December 25, suggesting turbulent conditions. Other forecasters said next week will be wet and windy.

 

Michael Dukes, of weather firm MetDesk, said: ‘It looks very much like it won’t be a white Christmas for most of us, with the possible exception of northern hills and mountains. 'It’s still a little too far off for much in the way of detail, but current indications are that the Christmas period will be very unsettled and often wet or stormy.’ The Met Office said Christmas week was likely to be ‘unsettled’, but emphasised that it is not yet possible to say exactly what the weather will be like on each day.

 

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2524565/Balmy-December-temperatures-means-apples-raspberries-ready-eat.html#ixzz2njgFIQHh 

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z and 18z go for snow.

[Coast]

Will it be a white Christmas?

 

During the past few days, I’ve had more and more people asking me whether or not it is going to be a white Christmas this year. There’s no doubt that many of us dream at the prospect of having snow on Christmas day to add to the festive mood, but the reality is that it doesn’t happen often – especially in southern parts of the UK. Before I look ahead at the chance of snow over the festive period this year, I thought I’d take a look back at how often we’ve has a white Christmas in the past.

 

But first, let me clear up the definition of a white Christmas. Most people tend to think that snow lying on the ground on Christmas day would count. However, for the purpose of those placing and taking bets, it is defined as a single flake of snow (including mixed with rain) to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December. This observation also has to be made officially by a trained weather observer.

 

White Christmases past

 

Looking back at capital cities in the UK during the last 53 years (since 1960), a white Christmas has occurred on the following occasions;

 

Cardiff – 4 (in 1990, 1993, 2001 and 2004)

London – 6 (in 1964, 1968, 1970, 1976, 1996, 1999)

Belfast – 11 (in 1962, 1964, 1966, 1980, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001 and 2004)

Edinburgh – 11 (in 1926, 1963, 1968, 1980, 1986, 1993, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2010)

 

The last white Christmas was in 2010, when snow fell at 19 per cent of weather stations. Even more remarkable, was that 83 per cent of weather stations had snow lying on the ground – the highest ever recorded. December 2010 was a cold and snowy for much of the UK, with some parts of Scotland and north east England having more than 50cm of snow lying on the ground early in the month. Nowhere experienced a white Christmas in 2011, as it was very mild everywhere, with temperatures as high as 15C in eastern Scotland. Christmas 2012 had a distinct lack of the white stuff too.

 

Where, statistically, is most likely to have a white Christmas?

 

Statistically, snow is more likely to fall between January and March than December. Sleet or snow falls on average for just five days in December, in comparison to 7.6 days in January, 6.8 days in February and six days in March. The map below from the Met Office shows that during December, snow is more likely to fall the further north and the higher up you go. This ties in well with Belfast and Edinburgh being the capital cities with the greatest number of white Christmases since 1960.

 

 

Another fact that you may be surprised to hear, is that snow is actually more common at Easter than Christmas in the UK. What about this Christmas? The weather in the run-up to Christmas day is going to be very unsettled, with a fast-moving jet stream catapulting low pressure after low pressure towards the UK. This means that as well as heavy rain, there’ll be gales or severe gales at times, which may cause some disruption to travel – worth bearing in mind when making travel plans.

 

With the weather so unsettled, it is hard to make a call on the weather for Christmas day this year, because the presence of any colder air will depend on the exact paths of low pressure systems, for which there is a high level of uncertainty. Therefore, I think that for most of us a white Christmas is unlikely, with rain more likely than snow. However, I do think that there is a chance of some wintry showers for Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England on Christmas day – especially over the hills. So, I’ll go for a low (30 per cent) chance that a flake of snow will fall at Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh or Belfast.

 

 

 

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/white-christmas/5497#sthash.OkgfWUPO.dpuf

[tynevalleysnow]

Well madden and corbyn going for widespread snow on Christmas eve. Mild and wet it is then.

[Paul]

Latest Christmas forecast now online 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=xmas;sess=

[Coast]

Despite the forecast, the odds of snow in London fell from 10/1 to 7/1 - Scotland is favourite for snowfall, with William Hill offering 3/1 for Edinburgh and Glasgow It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas will be dull and grey as forecasters warn of more wet and windy weather next week. Despite the bleak forecast, bookies were yesterday hopeful, cutting the odds of a white Christmas in London from 10/1 to 7/1. Scotland is favourite for snowfall on the 25th, with William Hill offering 3/1 for Edinburgh and Glasgow. 

 

And Met Office forecaster Nicola Maxey said there was a chance that heavy rain on Christmas Eve could fall as snow in the north-west. She said: “Christmas Eve looks very wet but with temperatures falling there is a possibility of snow falling in some areas. “The view in the north-west is allowing for snow at lower levels, so not just for the high levels. “But it depends on the timing of when the weather bands fall and the further away you are the more difficult it is to predict. “We are currently seeing milder temperatures, we will get some cold weather creeping in but that is likely to be short lived. "It’s all going to be a little up and down, with odd cold patches here and there, but in general the Christmas period should remain quite mild.â€

 

 

 

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/snow-christmas-day-weather-forecast-2944531#ixzz2o00h6nJQ 

[Coast]

[smithyweather]

Think I will personally see snow with a max temp of about 2c. 

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather for Christmas day with John Hammond

 

Turning colder for Christmas day with temperatures falling significantly

 

Not promising a white Christmas though there could be some sleet and snow showers up and down the country

 

More likely for most of us a bright and crisp day after a frosty start

[Summer Sun]

Weather warnings for Christmas run-up

 

Wet and windy weather is set to continue across the UK in the run-up to Christmas.

 

As BBC Weather's Chris Fawkes reports, there are indications of likely travel disruption and early weather warnings are in force for Monday and Christmas Eve.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/25479183

[Stuart]

Christmas 2013: Unsettled

 

Mobile and unsettled weather is expected to last until the New Year or longer. Christmas day is set to coincide with a colder incursion of polar maritime air and there is the possibility of a more organised band of showers pushing east across the UK later in the day. Forecast parameters suggest conditions will be very marginal for snow.

How does this impact the Xmas forecast?

The sixteenth update increases the chance of snow falling in both the north and south of the country. A Dickensian Christmas with crisp and deep snow is almost certain not to happen away from high ground in the north, but there is a reasonable chance of some locations seeing a mix of rain, sleet and wet snow falling on December 25th. Accumulations look unlikely away from high ground in the north, but for a Christmas to be classified as white snow it is only necessarily for snow to fall. Despite the chance of a wintry mix most of UK's population is likely to record a green Christmas this year.  

Enjoy counting down the days to the big day and check regularly for updates. Also check out what 'The computer says' in its daily update below!

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 14%

Forecast issued
Update 16, 21/12/2013

The computer says [issued 21/12/2013 19:04:00]The regional Christmas weather predictions are updated daily using medium and long range forecast data. They may indicate very different prospects to the TWO forecast above. Who will be right?

• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the south.
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in Wales
• Cold but dry conditions are expected in the Midlands
• Cold conditions in the north are expected. Marginal for rain or snow.
• Snow is expected in Scotland
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in Northern Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland.
• It's expected to be too mild for snow in the Netherlands.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast