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Hurricane Humberto


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Tropical Depression 09L has formed south of the Cape Verde islands in the Eastern Atlantic. Intensity is 30kts. The depression will move westwards initially on the south side of a ridge to the north until a trough creates a weakness and turns the cyclone abruptly towards the northwest. Low shear, warm sea temps and fairly moist air (for the first time this season it seems) should allow 09L to strengthen, and this cyclone actually has a shot at becoming the season's very late first hurricane.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Three depressions in 8 days, somebody might mistake this for a normal season.

 

Like the look of the system so far although the track points to no real threat. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Tropical Depression AL09: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

 

Posted Image

 

Tropical Depression AL09: Probability of tropical storm winds to 117 hours lead

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

A disturbance off the west coast of Africa developed into Tropical Depression # 9 Sunday afternoon.  Further strengthening will continue over the next few days.
 
After becoming Tropical Storm Humberto, the storm may reach hurricane status before the end of the week.  Computer models show the storm moving northwestward, then taking a turn to the northeast. Humberto will stay in the far eastern Atlantic, and will pose no threat to the United States. 
 
Posted Image

 

 

http://wtvr.com/2013/09/08/new-storm-forms-in-the-atlantic/


First one this year then? 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

 

If I'm reading the following correctly (h/t to JH on the Model thread), probably not?

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/054339.shtml?hwindloop?#contents

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

If I'm reading the following correctly (h/t to JH on the Model thread), probably not?

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/054339.shtml?hwindloop?#contents

 

Hmmm, at which point we start to look at a possible record-breaking season of nothingness then?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Now a tropical storm, looks like we tie the record for latest hurricane.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Hmmm, at which point we start to look at a possible record-breaking season of nothingness then?

 

I'm not really sure, as other sources seem to think it has a much better chance.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Tropical Depression 09L is now Tropical Storm Humberto, with winds of 35kts. There is some impressive convection over the LLCC at present, indicating that the air is moist in the vicinity of Humberto. Shear is low, and sea temps are warm. Outflow is generally good, and shear will lessen even further over the next day or two allowing the outflow to expand in the eastern semicircle which is currently a little restricted. With all this in mind, I see no reason why Humberto couldn't become a hurricane over the next few days. In fact, models are suggesting that Humberto could become a Major Hurricane prior to arriving in a higher shear and cooler water set up in 4 days time.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

It's got 2 days to do it in!

 

 

With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane formed after Sept. 4. The all-time record was set in 1905, he said, when the first hurricane materialized on Oct. 8. In an average season the first hurricane shows up by Aug. 10, usually followed by a second hurricane on Aug. 28 and the first major hurricane by Sept. 4.
 
Since the dawn of the satellite era in the mid-1960s, Feltgen said the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive was set by Gustav when it made its debut on Sept. 11, 2002. If this year’s first hurricane comes anytime after 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT) on Wednesday, it would replace Gustav as the modern-day record holder, Feltgen said. Seven named storms have been spawned by the 2013 season so far, including Fernand, which killed 13 people in central Mexico late last month. Most of the storms have been small, weak systems, however, proving an embarrassment to experts who had predicted an active season in reports that are eagerly awaited by the insurance and energy industries as well as many coastal homeowners.

 

 

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2013/09/09/304441.htm

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Tropical Storm Humberto Strengthening in Atlantic
 
A strengthening Tropical Storm Humberto is moving west across the Atlantic, southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and could become a hurricane on Tuesday. The storm's maximum sustained winds reached 60 mph (97 kph) on Monday night. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Humberto could become a hurricane sometime Tuesday.
 
The storm is centered about 120 miles (193 kilometers) southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and is moving further away from that area. A tropical storm warning has been discontinued for the southern Cape Verde Islands. No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect. The storm is moving westward at 10 mph (16 kph).

 

 

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/tropical-storm-humberto-strengthening-atlantic-20207410

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Tropical Storm Humberto poised to become first Atlantic hurricane of season

 

A tropical storm cutting a westward path across the Atlantic is poised to become a hurricane within one day — which would make it the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2013 season. Tropical Storm Humberto’s maximum sustained winds climbed to 60 mph by 11 p.m. ET Monday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. It may become a full-fledged hurricane Tuesday, the center said.
The tempest was about 120 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the west coast of Africa late Monday but was hurtling farther away from that area, prompting officials to suspend a tropical storm advisory, according to the AP.
 
Before sweeping past Cape Verde, Humberto battered the southernmost flank of the islands with hard rain and wind gusts. No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect over the region, the hurricane center said. Humberto is not forecast to pose any significant threat to land, according to the center.
 
So far this season, no major hurricanes have cropped up in the Atlantic basin — a division that encompasses the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Humberto is the eighth tropical storm of the season, which kicked off June 1 and is slated to run through Nov. 30. Experts said the first hurricane of the season usually forms by Aug. 10. Since the dawn of the satellite era in the mid-1960s, the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive was set in 2002 when Hurricane Gustav formed on Sept. 11. If Humberto achieves hurricane status any time after 8 a.m. ET on Wednesday, it would replace Gustav as the modern-day record holder, forecasters said.
 
All three previous storms named Humberto — in 1995, 2001 and 2007 — ultimately became hurricanes, according to The Weather Channel. The 2007 cyclone evolved from a tropical depression to a hurricane in 19 hours before slamming southeast Texas.

 

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http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/09/20408755-tropical-storm-humberto-poised-to-become-first-atlantic-hurricane-of-season?lite

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

 

Looks like we may have a category 2 hurricane this week.

 

Will it beat 2002's Gustav into the record books though? Next few hours will be interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Now at 65mph and forecast to reach 100mph.

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Looks close to becoming a hurricane. Winds are 55kts, and as you can see on the satellite image, Humberto has a well developed central dense overcast- a sure sign of a maturing system. The turn north should also begin soon.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Yup, 65mph and about to pop an eye by the looks of things.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Humberto is not expected to stay in Hurricane status for too long maybe 36 hours but that's about it, it won't hit any land so no damage will be caused

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Humberto is not expected to stay in Hurricane status for too long maybe 36 hours but that's about it, it won't hit any land so no damage will be caused

 

Aye. Worth pointing out though that the operational GFS has Humberto actually staying alive and restrengthening for the next 2 weeks. This is Humberto shortly before it goes extra-tropical (of course the chances of this occuring are minimal).

 

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