Convective / Storm Discussion - 8th September onwards 2013

[Coast]

Nice pleasant suprse, just had a shower pass with hail a 2 cracks of thunder

 

One showing up in NE London too:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[Guest William Grimsley]

With the Atlantic bowling in this week, there seems to be little on the convective weather front according to GFS free atmosphere:

 

 

 

That's not really that impressive! None of those locations show an Lifted Index of over 0 on any day!

[Guest William Grimsley]

I'm very surprised at how many not just showers but heavy showers there are in SW England, at the moment. Surprisingly, the UK CAPE Newton Poppleford: 93 j/kg which is low and the Lifted Index Newton Poppleford: 8 which is high. 

Edited September 16, 2013 by William Grimsley

[ZONE 51]

Some of my own photos taken on the day of 8th September 2013 (Sunday)

That day was a lot of showers and storms around the country, but across Surrey was these amazing evening cumulonimbus towers, these pics were taken looking north from Surrey.

Some mammamatus cloud was dropping underneath at lower layers mostly.

(Note-level edit on some images not all this to enhance detail) Anyway enjoy the pics and look forward to some cold uppers and convective activity in the weeks ahead! 

Edited September 16, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ChillyJuju]

ESS, I think your photos may be of the same tower that I was also capturing on Sunday 8th Sept. at approx 18.40 to 19.00 hrs.

 

Mine were taken from the opposite direction, looking South. I'll upload mine soon for comparison

[ZONE 51]

Great SH! be good to see the photos. mine were around 715pm but the cloud built up before that, normally I would have been in Stanwell think 20miles north from where took pics, but I probably would have had the view from here too!

[ChillyJuju]

These are in the order I snapped them, it's the last 2 where the tower began to collapse which made me notice the similarity to your photos.

 

The back edge of the tower (on the right hand-side of mine) appears to have a very similar look to that in yours (on the left hand-side). Along with confirmed times & directions, it seems quite likely that we were ogling the same cloud 

 

   

   

   

[Guest William Grimsley]

Some of my own photos taken on the day of 8th September 2013 (Sunday)

That day was a lot of showers and storms around the country, but across Surrey was these amazing evening cumulonimbus towers, these pics were taken looking north from Surrey.

Some mammamatus cloud was dropping underneath at lower layers mostly.

(Note-level edit on some images not all this to enhance detail) Anyway enjoy the pics and look forward to some cold uppers and convective activity in the weeks ahead! 

IMG8Cumulonimbus Iced tower head North - 8th Sept (Sunday)Level-edit1 (1).jpgIMG8Cumulonimbus Iced tower head North - 8th Sept (Sunday)Level-edit1 (2).jpgIMG8Cumulonimbus Iced tower head North - 8th Sept (Sunday)Level-edit1 (3).jpgIMG8Cumulonimbus Iced tower head North - 8th Sept (Sunday)Level-edit1 (4).jpgIMG8Cumulonimbus Iced tower head North - 8th Sept (Sunday)Level-edit1 (5).jpgIMG8Cumulonimbus Iced tower head North - 8th Sept (Sunday)Level-edit1 (6).jpgIMG8Cumulonimbus Iced tower head North - 8th Sept (Sunday)Level-edit1 (7).jpgIMG8Cumulonimbus Iced tower head North - 8th Sept (Sunday)Level-edit1- 9.jpg

Nice pics, ElectricSnowStorm!

These are in the order I snapped them, it's the last 2 where the tower began to collapse which made me notice the similarity to your photos.

 

The back edge of the tower (on the right hand-side of mine) appears to have a very similar look to that in yours (on the left hand-side). Along with confirmed times & directions, it seems quite likely that we were ogling the same cloud 

 

US 103.jpg  US 104.jpg  US 105.jpg

US 106.jpg  US 107.jpg  US 108.jpg

US 109.jpg  US 110.jpg  US 111.jpg

Nice pics, Silver Haze!

[ChillyJuju]

Nice pics, Silver Haze! 

 

Thank you William 

[Stormyking]

Things looking quite close for a late september plume on the last 2 GFS, obviously could still change but i think it could be worth keeping an eye on, especially with the warmer seas

[Guest William Grimsley]

Things looking quite close for a late september plume on the last 2 GFS, obviously could still change but i think it could be worth keeping an eye on, especially with the warmer seas

Yeah I have seen that, it looks very promising.

[Coast]

Things looking quite close for a late september plume on the last 2 GFS, obviously could still change but i think it could be worth keeping an eye on, especially with the warmer seas

 

Not quite reaching the figures and mix that we need just yet, but there is a definite, but small rise in the free atmosphere chart for London:

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Not quite reaching the figures and mix that we need just yet, but there is a definite, but small rise in the free atmosphere chart for London:

 

It looks promising but not good enough for a plume, yet.

[A.J]

It looks promising but not good enough for a plume, yet.

care to elaborate William?......To my eyes, those charts look positively dreadful for convective possibilities, especially when backed up with the full NWeather GFS storm forecast parameter suite....looks  pretty much none existent for the foreseeable future

[Guest William Grimsley]

care to elaborate William?......To my eyes, those charts look positively dreadful for convective possibilities, especially when backed up with the full NWeather GFS storm forecast parameter suite....looks  pretty much none existent for the foreseeable future

Well, that's typical for September, AJ.

[A.J]

Well, that's typical for September, AJ.

a shame......could do with a nice storm to see the summer season out with a bang.......still, chances of pulse type convection during the autumn/winter months as LP system's transverse the country with Pm air in their post frontal airmasses

[Guest William Grimsley]

a shame......could do with a nice storm to see the summer season out with a bang.......still, chances of pulse type convection during the autumn/winter months as LP system's transverse the country with Pm air in their post frontal airmasses

Yeah I wish.

Edited September 20, 2013 by William Grimsley

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Pics will be up soon of some cracking lightning and convection that I witnessed over in the Balearics . Now that was proper storm activity!! It really is unreal at how quickly the cumulonimbuses sprout up over there, literally like a video being sped up!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Should be good ^

Can't believe..two thunder less months running? Even some of the worse Summers in terms of cb action gave more...and yet a nice NW or PM airflow and the goods duly arrive for some. Roll on.

Rant over

True. This year has probably been the worst for general convection, it did however bring the first proper beefy night storm for me in 7 years which is a consolation I suppose, other than that though, truly horrendous!! September and October and even late August, Spain and the Med are by far the best places to be if you want storms and crazy lightning in whole different scenarios, for example, I saw a silent lightning show at 5 in the morning ( I was literally wetting my pants!), then a general convective storm from what was a few cumulus turned into huge cb's from nothing! Then the same evening, a real warm humid wind sprung up, and then came out of nowhere these tropical storm like features with 60-70MPH winds, horizontal torrential rain like I'd never seen and booming thunder to go with all of it! I struggled to get any pics of that though, as I was in the middle of my spaghetti carbonara. Water did manage to get this bloke wet through even inside the restaurant as water flooded through the roof!

So much better over there for storm action, no stupid storm shields! stronger sun, heavier precipitation, higher frequency of lightning, and a very warm sea to keep it going all night,

[Guest William Grimsley]

As for the outlook? After a fairly hot Summer you'd expect at least some thundery type breakdown - patience is a virtue...

Did you miss the thundery breakdown at all?

[Guest William Grimsley]

This is still 6 days away. But, this looks promising.

 

Interestingly, the UK storm risk chart seems to not show any storm risk over S England. Though, the UK CAPE+Lifted Index chart seems to show the right ingredients for thunderstorms to form over S England.

UK storm risk. Valid: Fri 27/09 15:00.

 

 

UK CAPE+Lifted Index. Valid: Fri 27/09 15:00.

 

Edited September 21, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Heisenberg]

According to GFS my area is supposed to have Thunder storms all day on Saturday....is this likely? I know its a long way off still but I hope this comes off.....See summer out with a bang!!!

[Tim Bland]

Weather Pro App (powered by ECM) also goes for storms in the South on Saturday,

 

GFS has high CAPE

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Weather Pro App (powered by ECM) also goes for storms in the South on Saturday,

 

GFS has high CAPE

 

ukcapeli.png

I think it is more likely that there will be thunderstorms here on Saturday morning rather than the afternoon. I can't wait.

According to GFS my area is supposed to have Thunder storms all day on Saturday....is this likely? I know its a long way off still but I hope this comes off.....See summer out with a bang!!!

Yes, it's quite possible. An autumn plume is on it's way.

[Jane Louise]

Just cant believe the storm risk for my area on Saturday 72% all evening!! but I'm not gonna fall for it again.I've seen this happen many times and nothing happens come the day Lol