Hurricane Ingrid

[Konstantinos]

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Edited September 10, 2013 by Konstantinos

[Konstantinos]

20% during the next 48 hours and 70% during the next 5 days.

[Konstantinos]

40% during the next 48 hours and 70% during the next 5 days.

[Konstantinos]

50% during the next 48 hours and 70% during the next 5 days.

[Coast]

[Konstantinos]

60% during the next 48 hours and 80% during the next 5 days.

[Konstantinos]

80% during the next 48 hours and 90% during the next 5 days.

[Konstantinos]

What will the name of this storm be?

[Sainsbo]

Ingrid, IIRC.

 

Looks as though we have TD Ten now, set to reach Tropical storm status for a while before making landfall in a few days.

[Konstantinos]

Can a moderator change the title of the thread because I cannot?

[Coast]

 

A tropical depression formed late Thursday afternoon in the southern Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center reported.

 

 

As of 8 p.m., Tropical Depression Ten had winds of 35 mph and was located about 165 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. It was drifting to the west at 5 mph. "The depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Friday," the hurricane center noted in an online report. A depression becomes a named tropical storm when its winds reach 39 mph. If it gets a name, it would be called Ingrid.

 

The hurricane center predicts that the system will meander over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next two to three days. Regardless of whether it's a depression or a named storm, the greatest impacts from this system will likely be heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides in eastern Mexico, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

 

A wide swath of eastern Mexico near and inland of the Gulf Coast has the potential to pick up over 10 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts over 20 inches through next week, the Weather Channel reported. The flooding could be "life-threatening," according to the hurricane center. A tropical storm warning has been issued by the government of Mexico for a portion of the coast.

 

The system could also bring needed rainfall farther north along the Mexico coast and perhaps as far north as South Texas, depending on its track, AccuWeather reports. "Any reasonable rainfall will be welcomed by many residential and agricultural interests over the Rio Grande Valley," Sosnowski says. If Ingrid forms, AccuWeather reports, there could be three active, named systems in the Atlantic basin simultaneously, joining Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Gabrielle, which are both spinning in the open Atlantic Ocean and are expected to weaken on Friday.

 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/09/12/tropical-depression-mexico-texas/2807079/

[Coast]

Tropical Depression AL10: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 117 hours lead

 

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, we now have TD 10L in the southern Bay Of Campeche. The depression is delivering flooding rains to Mexico currently, and will continue to do so over the next several days. The depression is forecast to move little over the next day or so, before moving west-northwestwards towards the Mexican coast as a ridge builds to the north. Moderate shear will only allow slow strengthening for the next day or so befors it lessens prior to landfall. NHC have 10L peaking at 55kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Just been upgraded to TS Ingrid with 40kt winds.

[summer blizzard]

Well despite being only 50 miles from the coast with a partially exposed center and shear displacing the mid and low level centers slightly, recon has just dropped 993mb and 989mb, I'd say we have RI.

[Sainsbo]

NHC now expecting Ingrid to become a category 1 hurricane before landfall.

[summer blizzard]

Looking very good. Her wind field has expanded, she's not far off starting to develop a CDO and has a well defined center as per the image below and on top of that she's drifting NE at the moment which will keep her over the ample bosom of the BOC for longer, GFS and ECWMF also suggesting another loop which could delay landfall.

 

[summer blizzard]

 

She's got that bubble over the center, i would not be surprised if she was declared a cane before 6am tomorrow.

[Somerset Squall]

Ingrid is nearing hurricane strength, and is now a 60kt tropical storm. The Bay Of Campeche is well known for allowing storms to rapidly intensify, and as Ingrid has lingered away from land, this is exactly what has occured. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cat 2 out of this.

[summer blizzard]

Now has an eye starting to clear and ASCAT confirms.

[summer blizzard]

We have her, Ingrid is now the second hurricane of the season.

 

AL, 10, 2013091418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 944W, 65, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 40,

 

Probably waiting for a special advisory to officially declare.

[Sainsbo]

Yep, the NHC have updated their map and it's now classified as a hurricane.

 

No hurricanes all season, and then two in the space of a week. Maybe this season may have an active end after all.

 

NHC going for max sustained winds of 85mph, but I can see it going higher than that personally. Conditions look quite favourable and sea temperatures are very warm. Still about 36+ hours before landfall, too.

Edited September 14, 2013 by Sainsbo

[Coast]

Hurricane Ingrid and tropical storm Manuel converge on Mexico

 

Several thousand people evacuated on Gulf Coast as storms threaten flash floods and mudslides

 

Ingrid strengthened on Saturday after becoming Mexico's second hurricane of the Atlantic storm season, prompting the evacuation of several thousand people while an increasingly powerful tropical storm Manuel threatened to become a hurricane as well, dumping rains that could cause flash floods and mudslides as it nears landfall on Sunday. On Saturday evening, Hurricane Ingrid was packing maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph). The storm was centered about 185 miles (300 km) east of Tampico, Mexico and moving north at 7 mph (11 km).

 

The US National Hurricane Center in Miami said that if Ingrid stays on the forecast track, it is likely to reach the coast of Mexico on Monday. A hurricane warning was in effect from Cabo Rojo to La Pesca. In Tamaulipas state to the north, where Ingrid is expected to make landfall, the government said in a statement that Independence Day festivities were cancelled in the cities of Tampico, Madero and Altamira. The September 15 and 16 celebrations commemorate Mexico's battle of independence from Spain.

 

Officials in the Gulf state of Veracruz began evacuating coastal residents on Friday night, and local civil protection authorities said that more than 5,300 people had been moved to safer ground. Of those, about 3,500 people were being housed in official shelters with the rest staying with family and friends. There were no immediate reports of injuries blamed on the storm. More than 1,000 homes in Veracruz state have been affected by the storm to varying degrees, and 20 highways and 12 bridges have suffered damages, according to the state's civil protection authority.

 

A bridge collapsed near the northern Veracruz city of Misantla Friday, cutting off the area from the state capital. Thirteen people died when a landslide buried their homes in heavy rains spawned by tropical depression Fernand on Monday. State officials imposed an orange alert, the highest possible, in parts of southern Veracruz. Off Mexico's Pacific coast, tropical storm Manuel was also getting stronger, moving with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph) and expected to be nearing the southwestern coast of Mexico by Sunday morning, possibly as a hurricane.

 

Late Saturday, it was about 55 miles (90 kilometers) off the city of Lazaro Cardenas and 180 miles (290 kilometers) southeast of Manzanillo as it moved northward at 6 mph (9 kph). The Mexican government late Saturday issued a hurricane warning for the country's Pacific Coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo. Manuel was expected to produce 10 to 15 inches of rain over parts of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, with isolated amounts of up to 25 inches possible in some areas. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides were considered likely, especially in mountainous areas.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/15/hurricane-ingrid-mexico-evacuations

 

Edited September 15, 2013 by Coast

[summer blizzard]

Now 85mph and forecast to reach 100mph at landfall. Can't rule out a major if Manuel dies quickly because the shear from that is the only thing stopping Ingrid from being a beast, we already saw a 7mb pressure drop in the 6 hours before shear last night.

[Konstantinos]

I believe Ingrid and Manuel have future (maybe together) in Pacific Ocean. (Please, change the title of the thread storm --> hurricane).

Edited September 15, 2013 by Konstantinos